Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 16

January 10, 2021Lea County, New Mexico; 18 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 10, 2021, 3:14 AM MST for Lea County, New Mexico; 18 counties in Texas. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 10, 2021, 3:14 AM MST (10:14 UTC)
Expired: Jan 10, 2021, 7:15 AM MST
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Heavy snow

Counties Lea County, NM, Borden County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Coke County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Garza County, TX, Howard County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Martin County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Runnels County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Terry County, TX, Yoakum County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 68 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 596 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 352 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 358 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

577 
ACUS11 KWNS 101015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101014 
TXZ000-NMZ000-101415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0016
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0414 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021

Areas affected...Far Southeast NM...TX Permian Basin and Big Country

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 101014Z - 101415Z

SUMMARY...Occasionally heavy snowfall with rates around 1" per hour
are possible from the Permian Basin into the TX Big Country over the
next several hours.

DISCUSSION...A well-defined shortwave trough continues to dig
southeastward across the southern High Plains. Strong low to
mid-level flow ahead of this shortwave is contributing to an
expansive band of precipitation from far southeast NM southeastward
into the TX Hill Country. Surface observations are reporting snow
from HOB (into far southeast NM) to as far east as SNK (in the TX
Big Country). A low-level dry layer is likely preventing
precipitation from reaching the surface east/southeast of SNK. 

The shortwave trough is expected to continue southeastward over the
next few hours, with the strong low to mid-level
southerly/southeasterly flow ahead of it persisting. This will
result in continued warm-air advection with resulting
maintenance/expansion of the precipitation band. Additionally,
ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave is expected to augment
the warm-air advection, resulting in a deep layer of ascent through
the cold and moist mid-levels/dendritic growth layer. Consequently,
instances of heavy snow (i.e., snowfall rates around of 1" per hour)
are possible, particularly from between MAF and LBB eastward towards
ABI around 12-13Z.

..Mosier.. 01/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32380289 32730363 33260342 33390128 32299905 31319942
            31960125 32230204 32380289

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 10, 8:34 AM MST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bell, Bosque, Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Comanche and 19 more	4 hr
Jan 10, 4:38 PM MST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Nacogdoches, San Augustine, Shelby	4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021 Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.