Mesoscale Discussion 1596

Issued

Aug 24, 2021, 6:19 PM EDT (22:19 UTC)

Expired

Aug 24, 2021, 8:15 PM EDT

In force

116 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

886 
ACUS11 KWNS 242220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242219 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-250015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1596
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0519 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

Areas affected...Southern to eastern Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 242219Z - 250015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorm development is possible this
evening across southern to eastern Michigan as an MCS and associated
outflow boundary move across the state. Sporadic severe wind or hail
is possible.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms continues to progress across
central MI towards the Saginaw, MI area. While the line is being
advected to the east by the mean flow, a slight turn to the
southeast is possible as the loosely organized MCS interacts with an
instability gradient over the east/southeastern portion of the
state. The outflow on the southern flank of this line of storms will
continue to move into southern MI through the evening hours.
Temperatures in the 90s with dewpoints in the 70s are supporting
moderate to high instability (up to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE per recent
mesoanalysis estimates) with limited inhibition. A few weak
thunderstorms have developed ahead of the outflow boundary and along
a weak sea breeze on the southern shore of Lake Michigan, which is
further evidence of the unstable and weakly capped environment.
Stronger forcing for ascent provided by the outflow boundary may
initiate isolated to scattered storms through the evening hours.
Despite favorable instability, weak deep-layer shear over the state
will limit the potential for further organization of both the MCS
and more discrete cell organization to the south, though sporadic
severe hail/wind is possible given the moderate/high instability.

..Moore/Bunting.. 08/24/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   41888661 42488564 42828506 43128458 43748418 44108374
            44068311 43718272 42968275 42158299 41828320 41658367
            41648490 41568588 41578653 41688674 41888661

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.