Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1569

August 20, 202126 counties in Minnesota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 20, 2021, 5:51 PM CDT for 26 counties in Minnesota. It was in force for 84 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 20, 2021, 5:51 PM CDT (22:51 UTC)
Expired
Aug 20, 2021, 7:15 PM CDT
In force
84 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 451...452
All 26 counties

Becker County, MN, Beltrami County, MN, Cass County, MN, Chippewa County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Douglas County, MN, Grant County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Norman County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Pope County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Renville County, MN, Roseau County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Swift County, MN, Todd County, MN, Wadena County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 127 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 263 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, International Fa, MN at 12:00Z on 2021-08-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 347 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, International Fa, MN at 12:00Z on 2021-08-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 22 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
347 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-74 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1086 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
22 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
13 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

736 
ACUS11 KWNS 202251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202251 
MNZ000-NDZ000-210015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1569
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0551 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

Areas affected...Eastern ND...Western MN...Northwestern IA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451...452...

Valid 202251Z - 210015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451, 452
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat will shift east across ww451 this evening.

DISCUSSION...Strong short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across
the Dakotas this evening. Extensive corridor of convection has
evolved ahead of this feature from northeast ND, arcing across
western MN into northwest IA. Strengthening LLJ across MN this
evening should encourage a slow propagation east over the next
several hours. While some hail threat is expected with the strongest
storms, damaging wind may be the primary concern as storms migrate
across the instability axis over the next few hours.

..Darrow.. 08/20/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   44659581 47289646 47629737 48429748 48949647 48679483
            47599427 44739431 44659581

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 20, 1:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Kittson, Marshall, Norman, Pennington, Polk and 4 more3 hr
Aug 20, 2:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBecker, Beltrami, Cass, Clay, Clearwater, Crow Wing and 16 more8 hr
Aug 20, 3:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBig Stone, Blue Earth, Brown, Chippewa, Cottonwood, Douglas and 26 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.