Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1542

August 17, 202114 counties in Georgia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 17, 2021, 3:13 AM EDT for 14 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 17, 2021, 3:13 AM EDT (07:13 UTC)
Expired
Aug 17, 2021, 5:15 AM EDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch
60%

Counties Bibb County, GA, Butts County, GA, Crawford County, GA, Henry County, GA, Houston County, GA, Jasper County, GA, Jones County, GA, Lamar County, GA, Monroe County, GA, Newton County, GA, Peach County, GA, Rockdale County, GA, Spalding County, GA, Twiggs County, GA

The radar

The Robins AFB radar (KJGX), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 00:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 82 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 00:00Z on 2021-08-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 288 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 00:00Z on 2021-08-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 54 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
288 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
457 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
54 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
92 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

479 
ACUS11 KWNS 170714
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170713 
GAZ000-170915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1542
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

Areas affected...Parts of central Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 170713Z - 170915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The environment has become increasingly conducive to
occasional supercell structures capable of producing short-lived
tornadoes near and southwest through north of Macon, GA, and this
may continue to develop northward toward areas near and southeast of
the Greater Atlanta metropolitan area through daybreak.

DISCUSSION...As Tropical Storm Fred slowly migrates northward to the
southwest/west of the Columbus, GA area, latest observational data
and objective analysis indicate northwestward advection of moist
boundary-layer air characterized by mid/upper 70s F dew points is
ongoing across southeastern through central Georgia.  This has
contributed to a substantive increase in boundary-layer CAPE during
the past few hours, and inflow of this air is contributing to
thunderstorm development within bands of convection pivoting around
the northeastern periphery of the low-level cyclonic circulation
center.  This coincides with where clockwise-curved low-level
hodographs are maximized and supportive of occasional development
and strengthening of low-level mesocyclones capable of producing
tornadoes.

..Kerr/Edwards.. 08/17/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...

LAT...LON   32688414 33258436 33678415 33638366 32878319 32488337
            32268371 32328397 32688414

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 17, 3:45 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCBaldwin, Banks, Barrow, Bibb, Bleckley, Butts and 49 more9 hr
Aug 17, 8:22 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBanks, Clarke, Columbia, Elbert, Franklin, Glascock and 12 more113 min
Aug 17, 10:42 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCColumbia, Lincoln, McDuffie, Rabun8 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.