Alert archive / Massachusetts / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1504

August 12, 202110 counties in Massachusetts; 4 counties in New Hampshire; 5 counties in Rhode Island

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 12, 2021, 6:44 PM EDT for 10 counties in Massachusetts; 4 counties in New Hampshire; 5 counties in Rhode Island. It was in force for 61 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 12, 2021, 6:44 PM EDT (22:44 UTC)
Expired
Aug 12, 2021, 7:45 PM EDT
In force
61 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Bristol County, MA, Essex County, MA, Franklin County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Middlesex County, MA, Norfolk County, MA, Plymouth County, MA, Suffolk County, MA, Worcester County, MA, Cheshire County, NH, Hillsborough County, NH, Merrimack County, NH, Rockingham County, NH, Bristol County, RI, Kent County, RI, Newport County, RI, Providence County, RI, Washington County, RI

The radar

The Boston radar (KBOX), 51 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 174 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-08-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 278 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-08-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -82 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
278 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-162 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1400 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-82 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-47 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

711 
ACUS11 KWNS 122245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122244 
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-122345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1504
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0544 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Areas affected...Southern New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 122244Z - 122345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms west of Boston may pose a risk
for a few damaging wind gusts early this evening. Weakening of the
storms is ongoing and should continue limiting the threat.

DISCUSSION...KBOX radar data showed a line of thunderstorms along
the CT MA border moving east around 45 mph. SPC mesoanalysis
indicates around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present but decreases
considerably near the Atlantic coast. Several measured severe wind
gusts near Springfield MA in the last hour suggest a few instances
of wind damage may still be possible with these storms as they track
toward the east early this evening. However, radar echo tops have
shown a considerable decrease in the last half hour as storms
approached the Boston and Providence metro regions. This suggests
storms are weakening rapidly as diurnal heating is diminishing. The
weakening trend is forecast to continue, but a few strong wind gusts
may still accompany thunderstorms through early evening.

..Lyons.. 08/12/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON   42027328 43197236 43397155 42987103 42677086 42217051
            41827061 41467087 41297133 41307197 41547268 42027328

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 12, 1:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBerkshire6 hr
Aug 12, 3:50 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEssex, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Middlesex, Norfolk and 2 more55 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Massachusetts, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Rhode Island, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Hampshire, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.