Alert archive / Massachusetts / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1501

August 12, 20218 counties in Massachusetts; 5 counties in New Hampshire

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 12, 2021, 3:50 PM EDT for 8 counties in Massachusetts; 5 counties in New Hampshire. It was in force for 55 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 12, 2021, 3:50 PM EDT (19:50 UTC)
Expired
Aug 12, 2021, 4:45 PM EDT
In force
55 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch
60%

Counties Essex County, MA, Franklin County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Middlesex County, MA, Norfolk County, MA, Suffolk County, MA, Worcester County, MA, Cheshire County, NH, Hillsborough County, NH, Merrimack County, NH, Rockingham County, NH, Strafford County, NH

The radar

The Boston radar (KBOX), 114 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 141 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-08-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 58 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-08-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 62 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
58 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-212 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1178 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
62 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
56 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

300 
ACUS11 KWNS 121951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121950 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-122045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1501
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Areas affected...southern NH...much of MA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 121950Z - 122045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A small severe thunderstorm watch is being considered for
the areas east of an ongoing cluster near the VT/MA/NY border.  This
activity is expected to move to the I-95 corridor.  Isolated strong
to severe gusts are possible.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a cluster of storms near the
VT/MA/NY border as of 345pm.  This activity is located to the east
of an eastward-moving MCV currently located over central NY.  The
Albany, NY ASOS recently observed a gust of 39 kt.  The airmass over
southern New England has warmed into the lower 90s with dewpoints
generally in the lower 70s.  It appears at least an isolated risk
for strong to locally severe gusts will materialize east of severe
thunderstorm watch 432.  The overall coverage of damaging gusts is
still in question but some risk appears to be increasing through the
early evening.

..Smith/Thompson.. 08/12/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...ALY...

LAT...LON   42987274 43327232 43337051 42087059 41907283 42247301
            42987274

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 12, 1:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBerkshire6 hr
Aug 12, 6:44 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBristol, Essex, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Middlesex and 4 more61 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Massachusetts, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Hampshire, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.