Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1435

August 7, 20214 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 7, 2021, 5:02 PM CDT for 4 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 58 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 7, 2021, 5:02 PM CDT (22:02 UTC)
Expired
Aug 7, 2021, 6:00 PM CDT
In force
58 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 413

Counties Green County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Rock County, WI, Walworth County, WI

The radar

The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 164 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2021-08-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1645 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2021-08-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 39 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1645 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-79 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1006 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
39 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
37 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

059 
ACUS11 KWNS 072203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072202 
WIZ000-072300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1435
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021

Areas affected...southern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413...

Valid 072202Z - 072300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413
continues.

SUMMARY...A localized corridor favorable for a couple tornadoes may
evolve across portions of southern Wisconsin and WW413.

DISCUSSION...As of 2150 UTC, regional radar data showed several
severe storms ongoing near an MCV and modified effective front
across southern Wisconsin. Along this boundary, locally backed
surface winds are supporting enlarged low-level hodographs favorable
for supercells. SPC mesoanalysis and regional VWPs indicated 300-400
m2/s2 of ESRH is present along the boundary while to the south, a
moderately unstable airmass 2500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE resides.
Temperatures in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the 70s F will
continue to support robust updraft development along the southern
side of the MCV this afternoon. Given the favorable shear profiles,
a corridor of greater severe threat will continue to evolve across
southern portions of WW413 ahead of a tornadic supercell in Grant
County Wisconsin. Here, a couple tornadoes and damaging wind gusts
will be possible over the next one to two hours.

..Lyons.. 08/07/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON   42778867 42688849 42528852 42508891 42588942 42719002
            42879039 43129066 43269020 43098958 42978905 42888886
            42778867

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 7, 11:03 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrawford, Grant, Iowa, La Crosse, Richland, Sauk and 1 more2 hr
Aug 7, 3:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColumbia, Crawford, Dane, Grant, Green, Iowa and 5 more119 min
Aug 7, 4:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCColumbia, Dane, Dodge, Green, Iowa, Jefferson and 5 more4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.