Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1399

July 30, 20214 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 30, 2021, 9:36 PM CDT for 4 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 24 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 30, 2021, 9:36 PM CDT (02:36 UTC)
Expired
Jul 30, 2021, 10:00 PM CDT
In force
24 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch needed soon 404
Chance of a watch
95%

Counties Brown County, NE, Garfield County, NE, Loup County, NE, Rock County, NE

The radar

The North Platte radar (KLNX), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), launched 00:00Z, 2.6 hours before the alert went out and 137 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE at 00:00Z on 2021-07-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2904 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE at 00:00Z on 2021-07-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 115 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2904 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-55 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1646 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
115 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
200 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.6
Supercell composite
17.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

564 
ACUS11 KWNS 310236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310236 
NEZ000-310300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1399
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0936 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

Areas affected...Northern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon 404...

Valid 310236Z - 310300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch will be issued soon for portions
of northern Nebraska.

DISCUSSION...East-west band of convection has gradually solidified
from eastern Cherry County to Holt County. It appears this activity
has organized sufficiently for continued slow southward propagation
over the next several hours. Hail and gusty winds are the main
threats.

..Darrow.. 07/31/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...

LAT...LON   42580068 42419872 41799858 41909987 42160079 42580068

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 30, 8:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCass, Douglas, Gage, Johnson, Lancaster, Nemaha and 5 more59 min
Jul 30, 8:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCass, Gage, Johnson, Lancaster, Nemaha, Otoe and 2 more5 hr
Jul 30, 9:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAntelope, Blaine, Boone, Brown, Garfield, Greeley and 8 more4 hr
Jul 30, 11:05 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCNemaha, Richardson85 min
Jul 30, 11:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCNemaha, Richardson96 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.