Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1334

July 23, 202112 counties in North Dakota; 20 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 23, 2021, 5:04 PM CDT for 12 counties in North Dakota; 20 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 23, 2021, 5:04 PM CDT (22:04 UTC)
Expired
Jul 23, 2021, 8:00 PM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch
60%
All 32 counties

Barnes County, ND, Cass County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Grant County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Beadle County, SD, Brown County, SD, Butte County, SD, Campbell County, SD, Clark County, SD, Codington County, SD, Corson County, SD, Day County, SD, Dewey County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, Faulk County, SD, Hand County, SD, Harding County, SD, Marshall County, SD, McPherson County, SD, Perkins County, SD, Potter County, SD, Spink County, SD, Walworth County, SD, Ziebach County, SD

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 151 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 151 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2021-07-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 108 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2021-07-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 143 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
108 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-435 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1738 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
143 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
125 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

130 
ACUS11 KWNS 232205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232204 
SDZ000-NDZ000-240100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1334
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0504 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

Areas affected...southern North Dakota into northern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 232204Z - 240100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to form through evening,
either side of the North and South Dakota border. Large hail and
severe gusts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a pressure trough from central
SD curling northeastward toward the Red River, with mid/upper 90s
temperatures common. A diffuse midlevel temperature gradient exists
across the Dakotas from north to south, with 500 mb temperatures to
-10 C near KBIS. Objective analysis indicates MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg,
with deep-layer shear approaching 50 kt.

Gradual height falls will occur through the evening, with increasing
northwesterly 850 mb winds developing from northwest to southeast
across the western Dakotas. Increasing lift may thus result in one
or more clusters of severe storms with east/southeast motion.
Isolated peak-heating storms may also form over northwest SD (west
of an extensive cloud deck), or near the Black Hills, with hail and
wind potential.

A watch could be required later this evening if it becomes apparent
severe storm coverage will be more than isolated.

..Jewell/Edwards.. 07/23/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   47019863 47099744 46849702 45789709 44809718 44549748
            44399846 44639960 44910099 45010199 44990264 44820305
            44540317 44140336 44130360 44470377 45350367 45610357
            45760307 46470190 46880018 47019863

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 22, 9:04 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBurke, Divide, Williams116 min
Jul 23, 1:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCTraill2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.