Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1296
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 15, 2021, 4:01 PM CDT for 7 counties in Kansas; Alfalfa County, Grant County, Kay County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 119 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 15, 2021, 4:01 PM CDT (21:01 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 15, 2021, 6:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 119 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Barber County, KS, Butler County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Harper County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Alfalfa County, OK, Grant County, OK, Kay County, OK
The radar
The Wichita radar (KICT), 40 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 211 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 39 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -84 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 987 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 10 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -74 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -7 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
901
ACUS11 KWNS 152102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152101
KSZ000-OKZ000-152300-
Mesoscale Discussion 1296
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021
Areas affected...South-central KS...north-central OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 152101Z - 152300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Convection is expected to increase by early evening. A few
organized storms are possible, posing a threat of damaging wind and
perhaps a brief tornado.
DISCUSSION...Clearing in the wake of an MCV moving across
south-central KS has resulted in moderate destabilization, with
MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and minimal MLCINH noted in areas where
some heating has occurred, per recent mesoanalyses. Modest but
veering flow aloft is supporting effective shear of 25-35 kt, with
the higher shear values noted where surface winds remain relatively
backed, as noted in recent VWP data from KICT.
Guidance suggests storms will develop by late afternoon/early
evening across south-central KS into northwest/north-central OK,
which is supported by increasing cumulus noted in recent VIS
imagery. Effective shear will support organized convection as storms
mature, and a supercell or two cannot be ruled out if any storms can
be sustained into the favorable wind profile that will reside to the
east of the most likely initiation zone. Locally damaging wind will
be possible with any stronger storm across this region, and any
supercell may pose a conditional risk of a brief tornado.
Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely, given uncertainties
regarding storm coverage in the short term and evolution of the
mesoscale details, but trends will continue to be monitored for the
potential of isolated supercell development.
..Dean/Bunting.. 07/15/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 37039679 36759710 36549868 36899898 37369888 37769841
38049761 38019691 37709663 37289660 37039679SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 2:32 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Bourbon, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Crawford, Labette and 3 more | 118 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.