Mesoscale Discussion 1294

Issued

Jul 15, 2021, 2:32 PM CDT (19:32 UTC)

Expired

Jul 15, 2021, 4:30 PM CDT

In force

118 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 117 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

566 
ACUS11 KWNS 151933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151932 
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-152130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1294
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

Areas affected...Northeast OK...Southeast KS...Southwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 151932Z - 152130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible later this afternoon,
with a threat of locally damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...At 1930Z, convection is gradually increasing near a
weak surface boundary across southeast KS into southwest MO, in
advance of an MCV moving across south-central KS. While widespread
clouds are noted across much of the area, somewhat more substantial
heating has occurred to the south/east of the boundary, where some
clearing has occurred this afternoon. Where temperatures have risen
into the mid/upper 80s F, MLCAPE has increased into the 1500-2500
J/kg range, per recent mesoanalyses. A few strong storms may evolve
along this instability axis this afternoon, as modestly enhanced
midlevel flow associated with the MCV overspreads the region. A few
briefly organized cells/clusters will be possible, with locally
damaging winds possible where low-level lapse rates have steepened. 

Another round of potentially strong storms will be possible this
evening across the same general region, as a low-level jet becomes
focused into the area.

..Dean/Bunting.. 07/15/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37199398 36599546 36339608 36319665 36949660 37099646
            37459613 37789560 37919536 38639406 38759384 38929338
            38339269 37899261 37779288 37419346 37199398

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.