Mesoscale Discussion 116

Issued

Feb 18, 2021, 4:54 AM CST (10:54 UTC)

Expired

Feb 18, 2021, 7:00 AM CST

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Tornado watch 10

Counties Bay County, FL, Gulf County, FL

The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 47 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Tornado Watch 11Feb 18, 7:45 AM CST

576 
ACUS11 KWNS 181054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181054 
FLZ000-181300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0116
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021

Areas affected...parts of the FL Panhandle coast

Concerning...Tornado Watch 10...

Valid 181054Z - 181300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 10 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe potential will probably remain confined to the
immediate coast through 1230 UTC.  After sunrise, gradual
destabilization inland is expected during the morning and the threat
for severe will probably expand northward.

DISCUSSION...Recent subjective surface mesoanalysis analyzed a low
roughly 55 mi southwest of Panama City with a warm front arcing to
the east across the northeast Gulf of Mexico.  A slow but gradual
increase in surface dewpoints has been noted as the warm frontal
zone advances northward.  Panama City's dewpoint has risen from 58
to 64 deg F between 06-10 UTC.  The mid 60s dewpoints are seemingly
corresponding to the north edge of surface-based buoyancy.  The risk
for a weak/brief tornado will likely be confined to the immediate
coastal counties over the next 2 hours (11-13 UTC), juxtaposed with
surface-based instability, as clusters of storms over the shelf
waters move northeastward to the coast this morning.  Although the
threat for an isolated damaging gust could conceivably extend
farther north than the surface-based airmass, it appears much if not
all of the severe potential will focus near the coast for the next
few hours.

..Smith.. 02/18/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON   30728597 29988505 29388543 30048628 30728597

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.