Mesoscale Discussion 1154

Issued

Jul 4, 2021, 11:26 PM MDT (05:26 UTC)

Expired

Jul 5, 2021, 1:30 AM MDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

Counties Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, Bailey County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Yoakum County, TX

The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

647 
ACUS11 KWNS 050527
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050526 
TXZ000-NMZ000-050730-

Mesoscale Discussion 1154
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Mon Jul 05 2021

Areas affected...southeastern New Mexico and adjacent portions of
the Texas South Plains area

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 050526Z - 050730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms moving southward along the eastern New Mexico/Texas
border will continue to pose a risk for locally strong/damaging
winds for at least the next hour or two.  A WW is not anticipated at
this time, due to small spatial extent of this risk.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a well-defined,
west-to-east-oriented band of storms moving southward across eastern
New Mexico and adjacent portions of Texas, with 80 kt inbound
velocity indicated by radar -- indicative of a well-organized band. 
With a 20 to 25 kt southeasterly low-level jet feeding this
convection, per recent WSR-88D VWP data, expect this southward
propagation to continue.

While a leading band of convection ahead of this main/stronger band
has led to some airmass stabilization (reducing temperatures into
the mid 70s and dewpoints to near 60), low-level theta-e advection
ongoing in conjunction with the low-level jet may continue to
sustain this rather well-organized band of storms for at least
another couple of hours.  During this time, strong/damaging winds
will be possible locally.  However, given small spatial extent of
this risk, and questions as to duration, preclude immediate
consideration for ww issuance.  If storms persist for another hour
or two, and it appears they may encroach on the more moist/unstable
airmass over the southeastern New Mexico vicinity, the need for a
new WW may be reconsidered.

..Goss/Grams.. 07/05/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35050435 34950363 34930241 34370221 33310241 33020321
            33370422 34490485 34870486 35050435

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.