Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1153

July 4, 2021Curry County, Roosevelt County, New Mexico

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 4, 2021, 8:20 PM MDT for Curry County, Roosevelt County, New Mexico. It was in force for 85 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 4, 2021, 8:20 PM MDT (02:20 UTC)
Expired
Jul 4, 2021, 9:45 PM MDT
In force
85 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 333

Counties Curry County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM

The radar

The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 2.3 hours before the alert went out and 188 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-07-05Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2304 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-07-05The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 26 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2304 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-21 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1243 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
26 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
146 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.2
Supercell composite
7.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

431 
ACUS11 KWNS 050221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050220 
TXZ000-NMZ000-050345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1153
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0920 PM CDT Sun Jul 04 2021

Areas affected...Parts of east central New Mexico and adjacent west
Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 333...

Valid 050220Z - 050345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 333
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe storm may continue to develop across or
just to the west and southwest of Clovis, NM, through 9-10 PM MDT,
before diminishing later this evening.  A new severe weather watch
is not anticipated, but portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 333
may be locally extended in time for an hour or two.

DISCUSSION...While upscale growth has not occurred, an isolated
long-lived supercell is maintaining considerable strength as it
approaches the Clovis, NM area.  There may be a strong downburst
ongoing, and associated outflow has undercut the lower/mid-level
mesocyclone, but  latest objective analysis suggests that moderate
to strong south-southwesterly low-level storm relative winds may
maintain inflow of moist air with sizable CAPE into the updraft for
at least another or two.  As this occurs, stronger convection should
tend to propagate near or just to the west through southwest of
Clovis through 03-04Z.

..Kerr.. 07/05/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34620341 34480290 33890312 33760357 34040381 34620341

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 4, 11:26 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCurry, De Baca, Guadalupe, Roosevelt2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.