Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1148

July 4, 202119 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 4, 2021, 3:16 PM CDT for 19 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 89 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 4, 2021, 3:16 PM CDT (20:16 UTC)
Expired: Jul 4, 2021, 4:45 PM CDT
In force: 89 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch: 40%

Counties Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Gove County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Lane County, KS, Logan County, KS, Meade County, KS, Ness County, KS, Scott County, KS, Seward County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Trego County, KS, Wichita County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 334Jul 4, 4:00 PM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 283 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 204 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -314 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2162 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 35 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 80 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

286 
ACUS11 KWNS 042016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042016 
KSZ000-042145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1148
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CDT Sun Jul 04 2021

Areas affected...portions of western and northwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 042016Z - 042145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe storms may evolve along a north south
boundary across western and northwestern Kansas this
afternoon/evening. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be
possible. Convective trends will be monitored for a possible weather
watch.

DISCUSSION...Beneath a weak mid-level trough transiting the Plains,
afternoon visible satellite imagery showed towering cumulus and weak
thunderstorms developing along a north-south convergence line across
portions of western Kansas. Within a warm and moist airmass with
dewpoints near 70 F, SPC mesoanalysis shows the developing
convection will have access to 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. While
initially in a weak shear environment, with less than 25 kts of
effective shear, somewhat enhanced northwesterly flow will
overspread Southwestern Kansas later this afternoon as the main
trough continues southeastward. Initially multicellular storms are
expected, but gradual organization into a couple clusters or a
supercell or two will be possible. Damaging wind gusts appear to be
the primary severe threat given the expected storm mode and
organization. While not overly strong, mid-level lapse rates around
7 to 7.5 C/ km steepen with westward extent and will likely support
some hail potential with the strongest updrafts, especially if a
supercell or two develops. Given the favorable convective parameter
space for damaging winds and hail, a weather watch may be needed.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 07/04/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38020164 39240136 39570096 39530041 39309991 38619980
            37599985 37070029 37020086 37010122 37120150 38020164

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 4, 4:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Clark, Finney, Ford, Gove, Graham, Grant and 21 more	7 hr
Jul 4, 6:56 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Grant, Greeley, Hamilton, Haskell, Kearny, Logan and 8 more	94 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.