Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1144
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 3, 2021, 2:34 PM MDT for 5 counties in North Dakota; 5 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 116 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 3, 2021, 2:34 PM MDT (20:34 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 3, 2021, 4:30 PM MDT
- In force
- 116 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
Counties Adams County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Grant County, ND, Morton County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Campbell County, SD, Corson County, SD, Dewey County, SD, Perkins County, SD, Ziebach County, SD
The radar
The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 114 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 117 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1984 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 187 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 150 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
588
ACUS11 KWNS 032034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032034
NDZ000-SDZ000-032230-
Mesoscale Discussion 1144
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CDT Sat Jul 03 2021
Areas affected...south-central North Dakota into north-central South
Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 032034Z - 032230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...An increase in storm coverage is expected over the next
few hours, and localized strong wind gusts may occur.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows hot temperatures and a low-level
lapse rate plume nosing across northwest SD and southwest ND. A
large CU field with isolated small cells has formed in this region,
where weak convergence also exists near the surface trough.
Shear will remain weak over the region but continued heating will
likely support an increase in storm coverage which will spread
east/southeast toward central parts of the Dakotas, where better
low-level moisture exists. Most CAMs suggest cells will remain
small, but possible congealing outflows could eventually result in
small areas of wind potential.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/03/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...
LAT...LON 45910294 46250221 46640162 46920102 46950028 46709990
46109979 45250031 44860085 44750184 44810273 45290290
45910294SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 3, 3:33 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bennett, Haakon, Jackson, Jones, Lyman, Mellette and 2 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 3, 5:33 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bennett, Brule, Haakon, Hughes, Jackson, Jones and 7 more | 87 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.