Mesoscale Discussion 1120

Issued

Jun 27, 2021, 12:18 PM MDT (18:18 UTC)

Expired

Jun 27, 2021, 2:15 PM MDT

In force

117 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

5%

Counties Doña Ana County, NM, Luna County, NM, Otero County, NM, El Paso County, TX, Hudspeth County, TX

The El Paso radar (KEPZ), 21 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

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243 
ACUS11 KWNS 271818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271818 
NMZ000-TXZ000-272015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1120
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

Areas affected...Southern New Mexico and far southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 271818Z - 272015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may intensify and pose
a damaging wind threat through the late afternoon and evening hours.
The threat should be limited enough to preclude the need for a
watch.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed
within the higher terrain of the Gila region of southwest NM over
the past two hours, and are expected to propagate east/southeastward
towards southern NM/southwest TX through the late afternoon.
Additionally, cumulus along the TX/NM border has shown signs of
gradual deepening, signifying waning inhibition. The combination of
daytime heating and weak moisture advection has been gradually
increasing MLCAPE through the late morning/early afternoon with
roughly 500-1000 J/kg already in place over the region. Although
flow aloft is modest, a nearly 180 degree wind shift above 2-3 km
(noted in regional VWPs) is supporting close to 40 knots of
effective bulk shear, which should aid in convective organization as
discrete cells and clusters move towards the international border
and/or develop out of the deepening cumulus field. Additionally,
low-level lapse rates are steepening amid deeper boundary-layer
mixing with 7-8 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates noted in recent mesoanalysis
estimates. This may allow for strong outflows and an attendant
damaging wind threat with any organized storm or cluster. However,
the coverage of any strong to severe storms should remain somewhat
limited given the marginal instability and narrow spatial overlap
with favorable wind shear, and will likely preclude the need for a
watch.

..Moore/Hart.. 06/27/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...

LAT...LON   31520810 31960835 32470828 32850768 32830620 32700573
            32360510 32140482 31470468 30980504 30670532 31030587
            31390638 31500764 31520810

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.