Mesoscale Discussion 1034

Issued

Jun 20, 2021, 2:43 PM EDT (18:43 UTC)

Expired

Jun 20, 2021, 4:15 PM EDT

In force

92 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch possible

Chance of a watch

40%

The Wilmington radar (KLTX), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

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191 
ACUS11 KWNS 201843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201843 
NCZ000-SCZ000-202015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1034
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Areas affected...central SC northeastward into eastern NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 201843Z - 202015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of transient supercells may pose an isolated risk
for a tornado or two through the afternoon.  It is uncertain whether
a tornado watch is needed.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery this afternoon shows developing storms
over central SC to the east and ahead of the center of Claudette. 
Additional storms exhibiting supercellular characteristics have been
observed over northeast NC during the past 30 minutes.  The airmass
over the Carolina Piedmont/coastal plain has destabilized with
temperatures in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. 
Based on 88D VAD data, the largest hodograph is observed from the
Morehead City, NC VAD where some veering and strengthening of winds
to 30-35 kt at 2km AGL was noted.  Weaker flow was sampled by the
Raleigh, NC and Columbia, SC VADs and their hodographs were much
more limited in size.  As it stands, it appears the highest
conditional risk for a tornado is over parts of eastern NC during
the afternoon due to the larger hodographs.

..Smith.. 06/20/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   33928150 34578099 36117671 36027606 35557625 34957761
            33508103 33568151 33928150

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.