Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1030

June 20, 20217 counties in Florida; 42 counties in Georgia; 7 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 20, 2021, 8:40 AM EDT for 7 counties in Florida; 42 counties in Georgia; 7 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 20, 2021, 8:40 AM EDT (12:40 UTC)
Expired
Jun 20, 2021, 11:15 AM EDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch
60%
All 56 counties

Baker County, FL, Columbia County, FL, Duval County, FL, Hamilton County, FL, Madison County, FL, Nassau County, FL, Suwannee County, FL, Appling County, GA, Atkinson County, GA, Bacon County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brantley County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Bryan County, GA, Bulloch County, GA, Burke County, GA, Camden County, GA, Candler County, GA, Charlton County, GA, Chatham County, GA, Clinch County, GA, Coffee County, GA, Cook County, GA, Echols County, GA, Effingham County, GA, Emanuel County, GA, Evans County, GA, Glynn County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Jeff Davis County, GA, Jenkins County, GA, Johnson County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Liberty County, GA, Long County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, McIntosh County, GA, Montgomery County, GA, Pierce County, GA, Screven County, GA, Tattnall County, GA, Telfair County, GA, Tift County, GA, Toombs County, GA, Treutlen County, GA, Ware County, GA, Wayne County, GA, Wheeler County, GA, Allendale County, SC, Bamberg County, SC, Barnwell County, SC, Beaufort County, SC, Colleton County, SC, Hampton County, SC, Jasper County, SC

The radar

The Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), launched 12:00Z, 0.7 hours before the alert went out and 129 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jacksonville, FL at 12:00Z on 2021-06-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1078 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jacksonville, FL at 12:00Z on 2021-06-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 170 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1078 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-61 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
938 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
170 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
197 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.7
Supercell composite
9.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

386 
ACUS11 KWNS 201241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201240 
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-201515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1030
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Areas affected...Eastern Georgia...Northeast Florida...Southern
South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 201240Z - 201515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado threat may develop across parts of northeast
Florida, eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina this morning. A
tornado watch may need to be considered across this area.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows that the remnant low of
Claudette is currently located in northwestern Georgia. A distinct
band of thunderstorms is ongoing to the southeast of the low, across
southwest and central Georgia. This band will continue to move
eastward this morning across eastern Georgia and southern South
Carolina. Intensification of the cells within the band of storms
will be possible as destabilization occurs. In addition, the WSR-88D
VWP near Charleston, South Carolina has 0-1 km shear near 35 kt with
0-3 km storm relative helicity in the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range. This
may support a tornado threat with rotating cells embedded in this
band of storms.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 06/20/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   32098051 31488109 30838134 30408142 30138199 30148282
            30308349 30638380 31408362 32168309 32958251 33358160
            33188056 32928025 32428024 32098051

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 19, 8:00 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCBay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Holmes and 9 more13 hr
Jun 20, 12:58 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Holmes and 9 more2 hr
Jun 20, 6:00 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Hamilton and 9 more2 hr
Jun 20, 11:01 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlachua, Bradford, Clay119 min
Jun 20, 2:43 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Chesterfield, Darlington, Dillon, Kershaw, Lee and 4 more92 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.