Special Weather Statement, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
234 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...Pockets of Heavy Rain Continue to Develop Across West Central
Texas...

Cold front continues to sag slowly south this afternoon, with strong
southerly flow up and over the boundary combining with some upper
level jet dynamics to produce widespread showers and storms across
the western half of the area. Remnants of Pamela are approaching
from the south, with lightning showing a significant increase across
Val Verde with the storms moving north into Crockett and Sutton.
Rainfall rates have been impressive, over 4 inches an hour, with a
few quick moving storms over San Angelo. Totals were not terribly
impressive yet but rates alone were enough to cause some significant
street flooding. With Pamela set to arrive over the next few hours,
have extended the Flash Flood Watch farther west to include more of
the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau. As the boundary sags south
and as lift from Pamela shifts northeast, more of the Heartland and
Hill Country will get into the fun as well.

Most models show the passage of Pamela's remnants this evening or
not very far into the overnight hours. Have decreased POPs most
areas after midnight and most areas are fry for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...Thursday night into Wednesday...

Drier air will be in place Thursday night...with a weak surface
trough over the region. A cold front with breezy north winds will
then move into West Central Texas Friday morning. Surface high
pressure centers over West Texas Saturday morning and South Central
Texas Sunday morning. Protected areas may fall into the upper 30s in
the Concho Valley Saturday morning, and in the Heartland and
Northwest Hill Country Sunday morning. Drier Monday into Wednesday
next week with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Convection continues to blossom across the area, ahead of the
remnants from Pamela which will arrive later this afternoon and
evening. Will use latest radar trends as a first guess, and build
in timing for additional convection from the latest CAMs. After
the showers and storms move off, light southerly flow will
prevail ahead of the next stronger front. Wet soils and a very
moist air mass will make for at least some MVFR cigs, if not IFR
for at least a few hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 62  84  54  71 /  80   5   0   0
San Angelo 	 62  86  54  74 /  80   5   0   0
Junction 	 64  86  59  78 / 100   5   0   0
Brownwood 	 63  83  56  74 / 100  10   0   0
Sweetwater 	 62  86  54  72 /  50   5   0   0
Ozona      	 63  85  56  75 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for Brown-Coke-
Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Runnels-
San Saba-Schleicher-Sutton-Tom Green.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
229 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-141930-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
229 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Heavy rainfall will continue across much of West Central Texas
through tonight, producing flooding and flash flooding across the
area. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for areas east of a Robert
Lee to San Angelo to Ozona line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The threat for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
220 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

TXZ128-132000-
Callahan TX-
220 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Callahan County
through 300 PM CDT...

At 219 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dudley, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Baird, Putnam, Rowden, Admiral and Us-283 Near The Callahan-
Shackelford County Line.

This includes Interstate 20 between Mile Markers 303 and 322.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3208 9935 3208 9940 3219 9963 3222 9963
      3252 9937 3251 9911 3240 9911
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 217DEG 35KT 3222 9951

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
555 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

TXZ169-170-140000-
Mason TX-Kimble TX-
555 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Kimble and
Mason Counties through 700 PM CDT...

At 555 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mountain Home, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mason, Art, Pontotoc, Loyal Valley, Streeter, Hedwigs Hill, Camp Air,
Hilda, Long Mountain, Grit, Katemcy, Koockville, The Intersection Of
Highway 29 And Ranch Road 1222, Us-87 Near The Mason-
Gillespie County Line, The Intersection Of I-10 And Us 290 and I-
10 Near The Kimble-Kerr County Line.

This includes Interstate 10 between Mile Markers 467 and 477.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3071 9948 3094 9948 3092 9897 3050 9896
      3050 9930 3029 9930 3029 9970
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 206DEG 39KT 3019 9947

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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