Special Weather Statement, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
628 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

Early this afternoon, a stationary front was located west to east
along a Big Spring, San Angelo to Brady line. A dryline was also
situated across our southwestern counties and was just east of Ozona
as of 2 PM. The airmass south of the front and east of the dryline
was beginning to destabilize over our southeast counties, with
surface based CAPES 1000-1500 J/kg noted between Sonora, Junction
and San Saba per latest SPC mesoanalysis. Visible satellite imagery
shows enhanced cumulus developing over this area the past couple of
hours. Latest HRRR is showing some convective development around
21Z, while some of the other models were less aggressive. If storms
manage to develop, large hail and damaging winds will be a concern,
given the moderately unstable airmass and deep layer shear between
50 and 60 knots.

More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
later this evening, as lift increases with an approaching upper
trough to our west. Additional strong to severe storms will be
possible from late evening into the overnight hours, with the severe
threat confined to far southeast counties. The main threat again
will be large hail and damaging winds. A cold front will move south
across the area overnight, with precipitation ending across eastern
counties late. Dry and pleasant weather is expected on Thursday,
with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

Gusty south to southwest return Friday as lee trough in West
Texas strengthens. It will be warmer with highs in the lower 80s.

A cold front will be moving through Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures will still be seasonably warm with upper 70s in the
Big Country and with lower 80s south.

Low level moisture will begin flowing over cooler air at the
surface Saturday night...as an upper trough approaches from the
West. Can't rule out isolated showers Saturday night, but the
best potential for showers and thunderstorms will be Sunday into
Monday night. Showers taper off Monday afternoon...as the upper
trough/low moves east of the region. It's a little early to
determine severe potential but southern sections along I-10 to
Mason and Saba are only marginally unstable in the GFS model with
MUCAPES of around 500 J/KG Sunday and Sunday night. This could
still change, however, as moisture is one of the more difficult
things for the models to predict.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

Isolated convection continues to develop early this evening, but
nothing very close to a terminal location. More widespread
convection is still expected to develop farther north and west and
much closer to terminal locations later this evening and into the
early morning hours. Shortlived MVFR conditions possible with
these storms. This will push east of the area and leave drier
conditions by sunrise Thursday morning. Otherwise, decreasing
cloud cover for Thursday with west to northwest winds at around 10
knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 43  68  48  80 /  40   5   0   0
San Angelo 	 43  71  47  82 /  40   0   0   0
Junction 	 45  74  46  84 /  60   0   0   0
Brownwood 	 45  70  46  81 /  60   5   0   0
Sweetwater 	 42  68  49  79 /  20   0   0   0
Ozona      	 44  71  48  81 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
305 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-252015-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
305 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will be possible south of a Brownwood to Sonora
line this afternoon. A few storms may be severe, with damaging
winds and large hail the main threat.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to late
evening. Some of these storms could strengthen to severe levels,
mainly east of a Cross Plains to Sonora line. The main concerns
with these thunderstorms will be large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The threat for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be necessary this afternoon into the
evening hours.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1110 PM CDT WED MAR 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1034 PM     HAIL             5 NW JUNCTION           30.53N 99.84W
03/24/2021  E2.75 INCH       KIMBLE             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLF BALL TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AT MILE
            MARKER 451 ALONG I-10.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1114 PM CDT WED MAR 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     HAIL             3 SW JUNCTION           30.45N 99.81W
03/24/2021  E2.75 INCH       KIMBLE             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLF BALL TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED
            NEAR SOUTH LLANO STATE PARK.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1114 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

TXZ170-250515-
Mason TX-
1114 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MASON COUNTY UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

At 1114 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Streeter, or 7 miles west of Mason, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Mason around 1130 PM CDT.
  Hedwigs Hill around 1140 PM CDT.
  Art around 1145 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include The Intersection Of
Highway 29 And Ranch Road 1222 and Koockville.

LAT...LON 3094 9947 3093 9909 3092 9909 3092 9897
      3051 9897 3050 9948
TIME...MOT...LOC 0414Z 259DEG 26KT 3071 9935

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1127 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

TXZ169-250530-
Kimble TX-
1127 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN KIMBLE COUNTY UNTIL 1230
AM CDT...

At 1127 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Segovia, or near Junction, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Yates Crossing around 1135 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Us-83 Near The Kerr-
Kimble County Line, The Intersection Of I-10 And Us 290 and I-
10 Near The Kimble-Kerr County Line.

LAT...LON 3071 9970 3071 9948 3050 9948 3050 9930
      3029 9930 3029 9971
TIME...MOT...LOC 0427Z 260DEG 28KT 3047 9966

sn

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1141 PM CDT WED MAR 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     HAIL             JUNCTION                30.49N 99.77W
03/24/2021  E1.75 INCH       KIMBLE             TX   PUBLIC

            HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE IN JUNCTION.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1141 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

TXZ155-250530-
San Saba TX-
1141 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SAN SABA COUNTY
UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

At 1140 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chappel, or 13 miles northwest of Buchanan Dam, moving northeast at
35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bend around 1155 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Us-
190 Near The San Saba-Lampasas County Line.

LAT...LON 3092 9887 3092 9888 3115 9887 3125 9857
      3120 9857 3116 9850 3112 9855 3109 9853
      3112 9849 3111 9846 3108 9846 3106 9849
      3103 9844 3101 9846 3099 9844 3096 9845
      3093 9841
TIME...MOT...LOC 0440Z 236DEG 30KT 3097 9856

sn