Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS San Angelo, TX

242 
WWUS54 KSJT 250040
SVSSJT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
740 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

TXC049-250100-
/O.CON.KSJT.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-210325T0100Z/
Brown TX-
740 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL BROWN COUNTY...

At 739 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Blanket, or 10
miles east of Early, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
central Brown County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for west central
Texas.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3170 9868 3169 9875 3165 9877 3158 9897
      3172 9905 3194 9883 3170 9867
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 244DEG 19KT 3177 9878 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

PO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
628 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

Early this afternoon, a stationary front was located west to east
along a Big Spring, San Angelo to Brady line. A dryline was also
situated across our southwestern counties and was just east of Ozona
as of 2 PM. The airmass south of the front and east of the dryline
was beginning to destabilize over our southeast counties, with
surface based CAPES 1000-1500 J/kg noted between Sonora, Junction
and San Saba per latest SPC mesoanalysis. Visible satellite imagery
shows enhanced cumulus developing over this area the past couple of
hours. Latest HRRR is showing some convective development around
21Z, while some of the other models were less aggressive. If storms
manage to develop, large hail and damaging winds will be a concern,
given the moderately unstable airmass and deep layer shear between
50 and 60 knots.

More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
later this evening, as lift increases with an approaching upper
trough to our west. Additional strong to severe storms will be
possible from late evening into the overnight hours, with the severe
threat confined to far southeast counties. The main threat again
will be large hail and damaging winds. A cold front will move south
across the area overnight, with precipitation ending across eastern
counties late. Dry and pleasant weather is expected on Thursday,
with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

Gusty south to southwest return Friday as lee trough in West
Texas strengthens. It will be warmer with highs in the lower 80s.

A cold front will be moving through Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures will still be seasonably warm with upper 70s in the
Big Country and with lower 80s south.

Low level moisture will begin flowing over cooler air at the
surface Saturday night...as an upper trough approaches from the
West. Can't rule out isolated showers Saturday night, but the
best potential for showers and thunderstorms will be Sunday into
Monday night. Showers taper off Monday afternoon...as the upper
trough/low moves east of the region. It's a little early to
determine severe potential but southern sections along I-10 to
Mason and Saba are only marginally unstable in the GFS model with
MUCAPES of around 500 J/KG Sunday and Sunday night. This could
still change, however, as moisture is one of the more difficult
things for the models to predict.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

Isolated convection continues to develop early this evening, but
nothing very close to a terminal location. More widespread
convection is still expected to develop farther north and west and
much closer to terminal locations later this evening and into the
early morning hours. Shortlived MVFR conditions possible with
these storms. This will push east of the area and leave drier
conditions by sunrise Thursday morning. Otherwise, decreasing
cloud cover for Thursday with west to northwest winds at around 10
knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 43  68  48  80 /  40   5   0   0
San Angelo 	 43  71  47  82 /  40   0   0   0
Junction 	 45  74  46  84 /  60   0   0   0
Brownwood 	 45  70  46  81 /  60   5   0   0
Sweetwater 	 42  68  49  79 /  20   0   0   0
Ozona      	 44  71  48  81 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
305 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-252015-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
305 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will be possible south of a Brownwood to Sonora
line this afternoon. A few storms may be severe, with damaging
winds and large hail the main threat.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to late
evening. Some of these storms could strengthen to severe levels,
mainly east of a Cross Plains to Sonora line. The main concerns
with these thunderstorms will be large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The threat for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be necessary this afternoon into the
evening hours.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
346 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

TXZ154-155-242130-
McCulloch TX-San Saba TX-
346 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MCCULLOCH AND WEST
CENTRAL SAN SABA COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 345 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Brady, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Rochelle around 405 PM CDT.
  Placid around 420 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Us-
190 Near The Mcculloch-San Saba County Line and Hall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3104 9931 3111 9942 3146 9922 3125 9897
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 213DEG 19KT 3116 9931

PO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
702 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

TXZ140-250030-
Brown TX-
702 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BROWN COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM
CDT...

At 701 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Camp Bowie, or near Brownwood, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Early and Zephyr around 710 PM CDT.
  Blanket around 725 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3170 9868 3169 9875 3164 9877 3158 9895
      3157 9905 3169 9908 3194 9883 3170 9867
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 227DEG 33KT 3167 9894

PO