Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
217 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

Showers and thunderstorms are developing across the Big Country
early this afternoon, in advance of a weak cold front and some lift
ahead of an upper low/trough over the Four Corners region. This
system will advance east across New Mexico tonight and into West
Texas by tomorrow afternoon. As an embedded disturbance approaches
from the west, lift will increase through the evening hours, with
convection increasing in areal coverage. A moderately unstable
airmass is in place this afternoon, along with steep lapse rates
and enough shear for a few severe storms to develop into the
evening hours. The best chance for severe storms will generally be
west of a Stamford, San Angelo to Sonora line, where large hail
and damaging winds will be the main hazards. Convection is
expected to overspread the rest of the area overnight, with the
severe threat decreasing. In addition to severe storms, heavy
rainfall and localized flooding will be a concern through tonight,
just about anywhere across the forecast area as PWATS remain
between 1.5 and 2 inches.

For Friday, with additional upper level support, a stalled frontal
boundary over the area and a moist airmass in place, additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected. The main concern tomorrow
will be heavy rainfall and localized flooding. Temperatures will
cooler tomorrow, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

By 0Z Saturday, the upper low responsible for bringing
substantial chances for showers and storms Thursday and Friday will
be centered over southeastern Colorado, northeastern New Mexico, and
southwestern Kansas. With shortwaves expected to continue rounding
the base of the low providing of upper level support, plentiful
atmospheric moisture with continued south/southeasterly flow through
850 mb (along with PWat values between 1.4-1.75 inches), and an
expected stalled frontal boundary to continue providing surface
lift, have kept widespread Likely PoPs through Friday night. As we
move into Saturday, the upper low will continue to move northeast
into Kansas before opening up into a trough early on Sunday. As the
low moves northeast, rain chances will decrease across the area from
west to east on Saturday. By 09Z Sunday, rain chances will come to
an end across the area and skies will begin to clear out as drier
air filters in behind the front. Lows Friday night will be in the
low 60s behind the stalled front with mid to upper 60s ahead of the
front. Highs on Saturday will stick in the upper 70s to low 80s due
to enhanced cloud cover and rain chances.

The rest of the long term looks dry and pleasant. An upper level
ridge will follow in behind the aforementioned upper level low
allowing for increased subsidence. The beginning of next week is
expected to have plenty of sunshine and beautiful daytime highs in
the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the low 50s and overnight
lows in the mid to upper 50s. It looks as though we might finally
get our shot at real fall as we head into October.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

Currently seeing VFR conditions across the terminals. Scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop initially
across the northern terminals this afternoon and early evening,
then spread south and east across the remaining terminals later
this evening and overnight. Some hail and gusty winds possible
mainly at KSJT and KABI through mid evening, with heavy rainfall
possible as well. Expect lower ceilings and visibilities
associated with convection. A weak cold front will move through
the area this evening and overnight, with mainly MVFR ceilings
developing after midnight. Additional showers/storms are possible
into the morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 64  80  64  81 /  80  70  80  40
San Angelo 	 63  80  63  83 /  80  70  80  40
Junction 	 64  82  65  83 /  70  80  70  70
Brownwood 	 64  81  65  83 /  80  70  80  70
Sweetwater 	 63  78  63  81 /  80  70  80  30
Ozona      	 63  78  64  82 /  80  70  80  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
150 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-011900-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
150 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through
tonight. The main hazard is heavy rainfall which could lead to
localized flooding. However the threat for damaging winds and
large hail is present and will be possible with storms,
especially this afternoon and early this evening. Occasional to
frequent lightning will also be possible with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible both Friday
and Saturday. Heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding and
occasional lightning will be the main hazards. Severe weather is
not currently anticipated with this activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and
evening, mainly in the Big Country, Concho Valley, and Edwards
Plateau. Please relay any information about observed weather to
the NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1036 AM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

TXZ098-113-301615-
Haskell TX-Jones TX-
1036 AM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Haskell and
northeastern Jones Counties through 1115 AM CDT...

At 1036 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Paint Creek, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Haskell, Stamford, Rule, Lake Stamford Marina, Irby and Paint Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3330 9947 3293 9962 3293 9994 3323 9993
TIME...MOT...LOC 1536Z 189DEG 16KT 3303 9972

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1258 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

TXZ054-301845-
Nolan TX-
1258 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Nolan
County through 145 PM CDT...

At 1258 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Roscoe. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sweetwater, Roscoe, Wastella, Champion, Camp Boothe Oaks, I-
20 Near The Nolan-Mitchell County Line, Us-84 Near The Nolan-
Fisher County Line and The Intersection Of Ranch Road 608 And Highway
147.

This includes Interstate 20 between Mile Markers 229 and 243.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3233 10041 3233 10067 3252 10066 3252 10042
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 285DEG 3KT 3242 10055

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
146 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

TXZ114-301930-
Shackelford TX-
146 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Shackelford County through 230 PM CDT...

At 145 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Albany, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Albany and Fort Griffin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3295 9909 3291 9910 3267 9931 3276 9948
      3296 9931 3296 9910
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 208DEG 19KT 3275 9936

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH