Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
632 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021

A line of thunderstorms located just off to the west and
northwest of the Big Country at 2 AM CDT will continue moving in
over the next couple of hours. In fact, periods of heavy rain are
certainly a concern as this line moves into the Big Country. Additional
rounds of thunderstorm activity may cause lingering issues with
flooding across areas included in the Flood Watch through
tomorrow morning. As a result, the Flood Watch has been extended
into Tuesday morning.

As we watch this activity move through the area, we may see an
isolated severe thunderstorm as well. The main hazards with these
will be damaging winds and to a lesser degree large hail. In fact,
this could affect areas to the south of the Flood Watch as it
expands and develop further south this afternoon and evening.
This would included the Concho Valley, Heartland, and the
Interstate 10 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021

An active weather pattern will continue through the rest of the
week, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms each day,
mainly during the afternoon and evening. The main concern for
these thunderstorms will be heavy rainfall, and the potential for
flooding.

During the day Tuesday, we may see a relative lull in
thunderstorm activity after Monday night's storms move through the
area. However, the activity from Monday night is expected to lay
down a boundary somewhere in the area, and GFS/ECMWF both indicate
that this boundary should be somewhere in the southern half of our
CWA. With that in mind, showers and thunderstorms will be possible
for mainly the southern half of the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

From Wednesday night into Thursday, the axis of the main trough
moving through the central U. S. will move to the east. However,
we will remain under weak upper level troughing. This weak
troughing, along with ample moisture in the low levels will allow
for scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day into
the weekend. Exact timing and placement of this activity will
depend on boundaries left behind by the previous day's convection,
so keeping a generic chance in for most of the area through
Saturday will be needed, although chances will slowly decrease
from the second half of the week through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021

Isolated showers will remain an ongoing issue through much of the
TAF period. However, the main line of thunderstorms will continue
moving through the Big Country over the next few hours. For the
KJCT, KSOA, and KBBD terminals, expect a later arrival time as
another line of thunderstorms may develop later today. Otherwise,
MVFR to IFR conditions will be present at times. Reduced
visibility, gusty and erratic winds, and heavy rainfall are
possible as this main line of thunderstorms moves through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 78  64  76  61 /  80  80  30  40
San Angelo 	 80  65  79  62 /  50  70  30  60
Junction 	 83  67  82  64 /  30  50  60  60
Brownwood 	 80  66  79  62 /  50  70  50  50
Sweetwater 	 76  62  74  60 /  80  80  20  40
Ozona      	 78  66  78  64 /  30  60  50  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Callahan-Coke-Fisher-
Haskell-Jones-Nolan-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton.

&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...41

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
639 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-011145-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
639 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Another round of thunderstorms is possible later today. This may
lead to localized flooding from heavy rain. In addition, an
isolated strong to severe thunderstorm may produce damaging winds
or large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The unsettled pattern continues through the end of the week with
chances for rain and thunderstorms. This will continue the threat
of localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1133 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W ROBY                32.74N 100.41W
05/31/2021                   FISHER             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FISHER COUNTY S.O. REPORTS FLOWING WATER
            OVER HIGHWAY 180 JUST WEST OF ROBY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1221 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1219 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SE ROTAN              32.84N 100.44W
05/31/2021                   FISHER             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FISHER COUNTY S.O. REPORTS WATER FLOWING
            OVER THE ROAD ON HIGHWAY 70 JUST NORTH OF
            THE FISHER COUNTY HOSPITAL.

&&

KB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1224 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1223 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SSE BUSBY             32.56N 100.38W
05/31/2021                   FISHER             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FISHER COUNTY S.O. REPORTS WATER FLOWING
            OVER THE ROAD ON HIGHWAY 70 ABOUT 6 MILES
            NORTH OF SWEETWATER.

&&

KB