Special Weather Statement, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
236 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday Night/

Line of thunderstorms about to enter NW LA trailing south and
southwest into Deep Texas attm is mostly sub-severe but cannot
rule out some severe winds with it as it continues marching
eastward this afternoon. Airmass ahead of it has become very
unstable with CAPE pushing 4000 J/KG even though Deep Layer Shear
is rather week. Propagation alone, along with the wet soils we
have in place suggests that we will likely continue to see
sporadic trees down for a few more hours with the watch expiring
at 7 pm. There may even be an isolated tornado threat across
mainly Southwest Arkansas where low level winds are slightly
backed compared to the wind field across N LA ahead of the line.
Fortunately the line is moving sufficiently enough that flooding
is not an immediate concern but that concern could really ramp up
late this evening through the overnight hours tonight.

Some high res solutions, including the 3KM NAM is hinting at an
area of much heavier QPF developing late tonight, somewhere across
the Middle Red River Valley of NE TX, SE OK and SW AR. This
appears to be co-located with the parent MCV spinning across N TX
attm and/or the base of the upper trough itself that we have been
dealing with for days. Could easily see an area of rainfall
somewhere across the Middle Red River Basin, north of Shreveport
exceeding 5 inches overnight through Tuesday Morning. This is far
from certain as this kind of nocturnal convection is highly
dependent on the development of a low level nocturnal jet and the
current convection moving through our region could disrupt the
development of this jet overnight. The current Flash Flood Watch
runs through 12z Tue and if we do see the heavier nocturnal
rainfall overnight across our northern third, then the watch would
likely need to be extended beyond 12z Tue but will allow future
shifts to make this call.

Thanks for the coordination today WPC, SPC, FWD, LZK. Updated
package already sent...13.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday Night/

Lingering convection possible across Arkansas and Louisiana in the
wake of an upper-trough that is forecast to linger across the Mid-
Mississippi River Valley at the start of the period. An upper-ridge
gradually building east across Central Texas will support a warmer
and drier forecast across east Texas and southeast Oklahoma.

Upper-ridge to finally build far enough eastward to place the entire
ArkLaTex into a hot and dry regime with temperatures on Friday and
Saturday forecast to climb into the lower 90s.

Otherwise, a weak frontal boundary will shift south across the
region late in the weekend bringing a renewed chance of showers and
thunderstorms along with slightly cooler temperatures.

/05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1157 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021/

AVIATION...

Difficult flying conditions will only become more difficult as we
move into the afternoon hours and especially the evening hours
with multiple rounds of convection likely. Begin with prevailing
VCTS across most terminal locations with prevailing TSRA at the
TYR/GGG terminals. Tried to time the current convection just west
of our western most terminal sites eastward through the day into
the evening. Do believe we will lose much of the storm coverage by
late this evening near and south of the I-20 terminal locations
but TSRA could continue through much of the night into the morning
hours at the TXK and ELD terminals.

Did prevail IFR ceilings across most locations near our just prior
to sunrise with MVFR ceilings returning by mid morning on Tuesday.
Winds will be mostly S to SE near 10kts but much stronger and
gusts near thunderstorms through the TAF period.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  89  75  91 /  70  40  10  20
MLU  73  88  74  89 /  80  60  20  40
DEQ  68  83  71  89 /  70  70  30  20
TXK  69  85  73  89 /  70  70  30  20
ELD  67  85  71  89 /  80  70  40  30
TYR  72  88  75  90 /  60  30   0  10
GGG  71  87  74  90 /  60  40  10  10
LFK  74  90  75  92 /  80  30   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for ARZ070-051-059>061-
070>073.

LA...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for LAZ001>004.

OK...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for OKZ077.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

13/05/13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
102 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-081815-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
102 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the entire
region today, with damaging winds and localized heavy rain leading
to flash flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Widespread shower and thunderstorms will continue on Tuesday,
which may lead to additional localized flash flooding concerns.
Can't rule out strong gusty winds, especially if storms are able
to organized into clusters. Much drier conditions are expected for
the remainder of the week as upper ridging builds into the region.
Widespread rain chances are possible by next weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will be needed this afternoon.

05

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
502 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSW SMACKOVER         33.32N 92.77W
06/07/2021                   UNION              AR   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

&&

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
508 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SAREPTA                 32.90N 93.45W
06/07/2021                   WEBSTER            LA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN.

&&

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
510 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE MINDEN            32.62N 93.27W
06/07/2021                   WEBSTER            LA   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN.

&&

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
518 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DUBACH                  32.70N 92.66W
06/07/2021                   LINCOLN            LA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS LINCOLN PARISH.

&&

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
545 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

LAZ013-014-021-072315-
Caldwell LA-Ouachita LA-Jackson LA-
545 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CALDWELL...SOUTHEASTERN
JACKSON AND OUACHITA PARISHES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 545 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles east of Sterlington to 16 miles
northwest of Clarks. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Monroe, Claiborne, West Monroe, Swartz, Brownsville-Bawcom,
Brownsville-Bawcomville, Richwood, Sterlington, Fondale, Fairbanks,
Vixen, Perryville, Bosco, Riverton, Millhaven, Pine Grove, Luna,
Guthrie, Deshard and Lapine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
north central Louisiana.

LAT...LON 3215 9244 3272 9206 3269 9205 3271 9204
      3270 9203 3271 9197 3266 9194 3266 9191
      3260 9193 3251 9190 3240 9200 3228 9203
      3227 9199 3223 9201 3221 9199 3219 9201
      3220 9197 3217 9198 3217 9190 3214 9189
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 283DEG 26KT 3269 9196 3213 9239

19