Special Weather Statement, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
345 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday Night/

An MCS continues to march E into SW AR/E TX attm, with a warm
front now having mixed NW into portions of Deep E TX as of 20Z.
This has resulted in some sfc based instability mixing N into
this area, with SBCapes of 500-1500 J/Kg. Meanwhile, a weak sfc
low has developed along the bndry near CLL, with this feature
lifting NE into Deep E TX this evening, which may result in a
slightly Nwd advance of this more unstable air through early
evening before the ongoing convection reinforces the bndry back to
the SSE later tonight. Thus, a svr threat can't be ruled out
through early evening, with a last second coordination call just
completed with SPC on the issuance of SVR Watch #164 for Deep E
TX, valid through 02Z.

The threat for locally heavy rainfall continues for much of the
region this evening, although the progressive nature of the
ongoing convection will help to limit the more significant
rainfall totals similar to what has been observed the last couple
of days. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches is expected,
with the heaviest rain expected to diminish across E TX/N LA,
although this will target the already saturated grounds across E
TX/N LA, where widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches has
fallen, with pockets of 4-7+ inch totals since Sunday based on
gauge observations. No changes were made to the existing Flash
Flood Watch, with the watch cancellation scheduled for 12Z
Wednesday. However, periods of -RA will likely continue after the
Watch expiration, but rainfall rates should not yield any
additional flooding.

Dry air entrainment is expected to surge ESE ahead of the upper
trough exiting the Rockies into the Cntrl Plains, which should
result in a gradual decrease in convection (and associated rain
rates) this evening and overnight. Should still hold on to some
lingering elevated convection mainly S of I-20 Wednesday morning,
where chance pops were maintained, before tapering off during the
afternoon. Low stratus and stratocu will linger over the region
for much of the day though, and thus have lowered the NBM max
temps Wednesday, with the 12Z progs suggesting that the cu field
may linger through a good portion of the overnight hours Wednesday
night, thus limiting the extent of cooling even as sfc ridging
builds S into the area in wake of a second shortwave trough that
will amplify late and thus finally begin to clear the lingering
moisture out Thursday. Thus, have bumped up min temps a tad
Wednesday night, before a warmup commences Thursday with stronger
insolation.

15

&&

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/

Thursday morning will start off cool with lower 50s for the most
part as a large 1033mb area of high pressure will be anchored in the
Great Lakes and extending down toward N Texas. Northeast winds will
persist keeping highs in the lower 70s. The surface winds will begin
to swing around back from the East and SE direction as the large
high pressure area shrinks down to 1029mb in place more or less with
temps closer to average for us on Friday.

By Saturday morning the air mass will be 1025mb on the East coast
and our return flow will be well underway. We will keep the
southerly flow into the region into early next week with a good
warming trend to continue into the weekend.  Highs will edge into
the lower and mid 80s and lows will be in the 60s for the weekend.
The weather will keep dry for much of this period as well, but start
to edge some rain showers and thunderstorms into E Texas during the
morning. Another deep low in the pattern will set up in the desert
southwest and send impulses in the SW flow aloft in our direction.
We are looking pretty wet for early to midweek with lots more
thunderstorms. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1248 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021/

AVIATION...
Cigs have improved to MVFR early this afternoon across portions
of Lower E TX/N LA, as a warm front has begun to mix N into the
areas. However, convection is expected to continue increasing
through the afternoon areawide ahead of a much larger area of
convection shifting E across OK/NCntrl TX, which will eventually
result in a reduction of cigs and vsbys by mid and late afternoon.
Low MVFR/IFR cigs are expected later today along/S of I-20, while
IFR cigs will persist across SW AR. Wind gusts to 25-30 kts are
possible late this afternoon through the evening with the
stronger convection, before the convection gradually diminishes
from NW to SE from mid-evening through the overnight hours. Have
inserted VCSH/VCTS mention across most terminals to start the 18Z
TAF period, before prevailing thunder areawide later this
afternoon/early evening as the convection becomes more widespread.
IFR/LIFR cigs are expected after the convection sets in, and will
linger through the remainder of the TAF period, although cigs may
slowly lift/become low MVFR across portions of SW AR by late
morning, which will eventually spill SSW into portions of N LA/NE
TX by mid and late afternoon. ESE winds 6-10kts this afternoon
will become NNE this evening/overnight. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  58  66  52  74 / 100  30  10   0
MLU  60  66  53  73 / 100  40  10   0
DEQ  53  65  48  72 /  60  10   0   0
TXK  54  65  50  73 /  80  20   0   0
ELD  55  66  50  73 / 100  30   0   0
TYR  57  64  52  73 /  80  20   0   0
GGG  57  64  52  73 /  90  30   0   0
LFK  64  68  55  75 / 100  50  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for ARZ070>073.

LA...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

15/24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1155 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

ARZ050-051-059>061-OKZ077-121700-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-McCurtain-
1155 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Oklahoma and
adjacent southwest Arkansas from Idabel and DeQueen to Bluff City.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will once again be possible
this afternoon and tonight, which may result is some localized
flash flooding. A few of these storms may be strong to severe as
well. Damaging winds and hail would be the primary threats with
this activity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Dry conditions settle in by Wednesday afternoon and will remain
into the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances return by Sunday
night with moderate rainfall possible once again into Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators and storm spotters may be needed this afternoon and
evening.

ARZ070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-
136>138-149>153-165>167-121700-
Miller-Lafayette-Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-
Lincoln-De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-
Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-
Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-
Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1155 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for extreme southern Arkansas,
for all of northern Louisiana and all of eastern Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will once again be possible
this afternoon and tonight, which may result is some localized
flash flooding. A flash flood watch has been issued for these
areas, as soils remain saturated from lastnight. A few of these
storms this afternoon and evening may be strong to severe as
well. Damaging winds and hail would be the primary threats with
this activity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Dry conditions settle in by Wednesday afternoon and will remain
into the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances return by Sunday
night with moderate rain possible once again into Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators and storm spotters will be needed this afternoon and
evening.

24

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
403 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW HENDERSON          32.22N 94.85W
05/11/2021                   RUSK               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            VERY LARGE TREE DOWN .5 MILES OF OF US 259 N
            TO THE W ON CR 102.

&&

25

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
501 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

TXZ165-112300-
Angelina TX-
501 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ANGELINA COUNTY UNTIL 600
PM CDT...

At 500 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Groveton, or 10 miles southwest of Apple Springs, moving northeast at
35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lufkin, Diboll, Hudson, Huntington, Burke, Shawnee and Homer.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
eastern Texas.

LAT...LON 3109 9462 3109 9464 3110 9465 3109 9467
      3111 9472 3110 9474 3115 9485 3123 9486
      3126 9490 3128 9488 3130 9490 3132 9490
      3134 9493 3143 9458 3109 9444 3106 9456
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 244DEG 31KT 3109 9504

19