Special Weather Statement, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1222 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

.AVIATION...

A mix of ceilings currently with everything from VFR to LIFR,
depending on if you are in or out of convection currently.
Convection is currently confined to our I-20 terminal locations
or terminals north of the corridor and that should remain the case
through the predawn hours. However as we transition to the late
morning hours and especially the afternoon and overnight hours,
convection is expected to become widespread. Therefore, began the
06z taf package with VCTS across most terminals with TEMPO groups
for reductions in VSBY along with ceilings and stronger wind
gusts. Prevailed TSRA for most terminal locations beginning mid to
late morning today, continuing those conditions through the
afternoon and evening hours with prevailing IFR or LIFR ceilings
during this timeframe as well.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1011 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021/

UPDATE.../Tonight/

Convective evolution continues to be tricky to forecast, and hi-
res rapid update models haven't been much help this evening. The
latest HRRR does seem to be initializing better this run, and the
12Z Euro is not too far off on placement of QPF thus far. If these
models have any handle on what will happen during the overnight,
convection should stay mostly confined to our nern half, generally
from around Tyler to Shreveport to Jena and points newd. have
increased PoPs across these areas for the overnight pd. Otherwise,
have made some minor tweaks to temps based on current obs, which
were running a few degrees cooler than previously fcst for the
central portions of the region. Otherwise, fcst is reasonably on
track this evening.

/12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  67  53  75 /  90  50  20  10
MLU  59  68  53  74 /  90  60  20  10
DEQ  52  67  48  74 /  60  20  20   0
TXK  53  67  51  74 /  80  30  20   0
ELD  53  68  49  74 /  80  40  20   0
TYR  56  68  53  74 /  80  40  20   0
GGG  56  66  51  74 /  90  40  20   0
LFK  62  68  56  76 /  90  60  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

13/12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
155 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-111900-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
155 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

There is a risk for isolated storms today across portions of the
region today. While widespread severe weather is not expected at
this time, some of the stronger storms may produce large hail,
especially north of the Interstate 20 corridor.  Brief heavy rain
may also result in minor flooding in areas that received heavy
rainfall on yesterday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible, especially
Tuesday and Tuesday night, which may lead to localized flooding.
Isolated strong storms also can not be ruled out, with hail and
locally gusty winds possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will be needed this afternoon and
evening.

20

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
841 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

TXZ108>111-124-125-137-110245-
Upshur TX-Gregg TX-Camp TX-Wood TX-Franklin TX-Morris TX-Titus TX-
841 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FRANKLIN...WOOD...
UPSHUR...SOUTHWESTERN MORRIS...SOUTHERN TITUS...CAMP AND CENTRAL
GREGG COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

At 841 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pleasant Grove, or 11 miles west of Winnsboro, moving east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Longview, White Oak, Gladewater, Gilmer, Pittsburg, Winnsboro,
Leesburg, Daingerfield, Quitman, Clarksville City, East Mountain,
Cason, Scroggins, Pleasant Grove, Hainesville, Rosewood, Newsome,
West Mountain, Forest Hill and Yantis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 9531 3307 9531 3314 9472 3248 9477
      3282 9565 3296 9567
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 276DEG 36KT 3292 9548

33

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
927 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

TXZ126-138-110315-
Harrison TX-Marion TX-
927 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MARION AND CENTRAL
HARRISON COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

At 927 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Harleton, or 8 miles west of Marshall, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marshall, Jefferson, Karnack, Berea, Woodlawn, Nesbitt and Pruett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3288 9437 3288 9432 3263 9409 3246 9449
      3260 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 230DEG 22KT 3258 9449

33

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
946 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 PM     HAIL             2 SSE RINGOLD           34.19N 95.12W
05/10/2021  E1.00 INCH       MCCURTAIN          OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1011 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

ARZ050-051-110345-
Howard AR-Sevier AR-
1011 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SEVIER AND
NORTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

At 1011 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Dierks, moving east at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dierks, Corinth, Muddy Fork, Lebanon and Provo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3419 9392 3418 9382 3405 9382 3402 9417
      3417 9420 3425 9393
TIME...MOT...LOC 0311Z 261DEG 44KT 3414 9405

33

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1257 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

TXZ124-125-136-137-150-110645-
Upshur TX-Gregg TX-Smith TX-Wood TX-Rusk TX-
1257 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SMITH...NORTHWESTERN
RUSK...SOUTHEASTERN WOOD...SOUTHWESTERN UPSHUR AND SOUTHWESTERN GREGG
COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

At 1257 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lindale, or 11 miles southeast of Mineola, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kilgore, Gladewater, Gilmer, Lindale, Big Sandy, Hawkins, Clarksville
City, Liberty City, West Mountain, Hoard, Winona, Union Grove, Warren
City, Red Springs, Laird Hill and Pritchett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3244 9545 3262 9545 3272 9490 3230 9489
TIME...MOT...LOC 0557Z 271DEG 27KT 3254 9536

33