Special Weather Statement, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1251 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

.AVIATION...
IFR with occasional LIFR cigs will persist through much of the 18Z
TAF period across much of E TX/N LA, while some slightly drier
air backdooring SW will maintain low MVFR cigs across SW AR this
afternoon and evening, before they diminish to IFR late tonight.
Sct strong/svr convection continues to develop/slide SE into NE
TX, but should stay N of the TYR/GGG terminals, but possible
affect TXK/SHV by mid to late afternoon. Additional convection may
develop farther E across Srn AR before diminishing by early
evening. A weak cold front will also seep S into Deep E TX/NCntrl
LA this afternoon, possibly sliding S of the area this evening
although it may waffle back N a tad Tuesday morning. Sct
convection is expected to redevelop by mid to late evening across
NE TX/SE OK/SW AR and possibly NW LA, affecting all terminals
except LFK. This convection will result in IFR cigs redeveloping
across SW AR late this evening/overnight, even as the convection
diminishes from W to E by/after daybreak. However, additional
convection will develop by mid to late morning across E TX, which
will shift E and become numerous by midday through the afternoon
Tuesday, maintaining IFR and reduced vsbys over much of the
region. NE winds around 10kts this afternoon will only diminish
slightly to 5-8kts after 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1113 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021/

SHORT TERM...
The morning sfc analysis indicates our weak cold front continuing
to ooze S across portions of Lower E TX/NCntrl LA, having shifted
just S of the I-20 corridor of E TX and N LA. Some areas of
-RA/-DZ too light to be detected by radar has developed near and
just behind the front (as indicated by the latest sfc obs), with
the 12Z KSHV raob depicting the moisture profile confined to the
lowest 9kft. However, the upper air analysis depicts the
lingering H850 trough in VC of the Red River of Srn OK/N TX
extending into the Nrn sections of SW AR, where sct elevated
convection has developed in association with a weak/subtle
perturbation in the zonal flow that appears to be traversing the
Red River Valley. MUCapes currently range from 1000-2000 J/kg
across this area in the presence of steep mid level lapse rates
ranging from 7-7.5 C/km, with the 12Z NAM suggesting that some of
this elevated instability may advect back ENE into NE TX/SW AR/N
LA during the afternoon. Thus, an isolated svr threat (due to
hailers) will be possible late this morning through the afternoon
mainly N of I-20, as depicted by the 12Z NAM and latest CAMs.

Have expanded high chance pops farther E into SW AR/more of E TX,
with low and mid chance pops elsewhere, with the higher end pops
across Deep E TX/WCntrl LA closest to the front. Did not make much
adjustments to max temps other than to lower temps slightly
across SE OK/portions of SW AR, with readings likely not rising
much during the day.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  58  66  58 /  30  60  80  80
MLU  66  57  68  59 /  30  60  80  90
DEQ  63  52  60  52 /  50  60  80  60
TXK  63  53  60  56 /  50  60  80  70
ELD  64  53  62  53 /  40  60  80  80
TYR  69  57  66  57 /  40  60  80  80
GGG  69  56  66  57 /  40  60  80  80
LFK  77  63  74  62 /  50  60  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
310 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-110815-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
310 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Locally heavy rainfall will remain possible today, as shower and
thunderstorm activity will expand again into the afternoon.
Isolated flooding and flash flooding is possible with this locally
heavy activity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible, especially
Tuesday and Tuesday night, which may lead to localized flooding.
Isolated strong storms also can not be ruled out, with hail and
locally gusty winds possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will be needed this afternoon and
evening.

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1050 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW LUFKIN            31.33N 94.74W
05/10/2021                   ANGELINA           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            *** 1 FATAL ***
            THE CITY OF LUFKIN REPORTS A FATALITY OF AN
            ELDERLY WOMAN AT A RESIDENCE ON LAFAYETTE
            STREET DUE TO A TREE FALLING ON THE HOME.
            SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL
            WAS A POSSIBLE CAUSE FOR THE TREE TO FALL.

&&

20

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>