Alert archive / Texas / River Flood Warnings in 2021
River Flood Warning 68, NWS Shreveport, LA
NWS Shreveport, LA issued this river flood warning at May 9, 2021, 8:26 PM CDT for Sabine County, San Augustine County, Texas. It took effect at May 10, 2021, 1:40 AM CDT. It was in force for 3 days.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 9, 2021, 8:26 PM CDT (01:26 UTC)
- In effect from
- May 10, 2021, 1:40 AM CDT
- Expired
- May 13, 2021, 6:45 AM CDT
- In force
- 3 days
- Issued by
- NWS Shreveport, LA
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
Counties Sabine County, TX, San Augustine County, TX
The radar
The Ft Polk radar (KPOE), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Ayish Bayou near San Augustine (AYIT2). The gauge peaked at 17.00 ft at May 10, 2021, 8:00 AM CDT.
- Action stage
- 11.5 ft
- Minor stage
- 12 ft
- Moderate stage
- 16 ft
- Major stage
- 17 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 08039100, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
134
WGUS44 KSHV 100126
FLWSHV
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
826 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021
...The National Weather Service in Shreveport LA has issued a Flood
Warning for the following rivers in Texas...
Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine affecting Sabine and San Augustine
Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
&&
For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv
TXC403-405-110130-
/O.NEW.KSHV.FL.W.0068.210510T0640Z-210511T1800Z/
/AYIT2.1.ER.210510T0640Z.210510T1200Z.210511T0000Z.NO/
826 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021
The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a
* Flood Warning for
the Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine.
* From late tonight to Tuesday afternoon.
* At 8:15 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 11.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage just
after midnight tonight to a crest of 13.6 feet tomorrow morning.
It will then fall below flood stage tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, Lowland flooding will slowly decrease
during the next few days.
&&
LAT...LON 3156 9415 3155 9409 3139 9414 3130 9412
3130 9416
$$
2510 follow-up statements
266
WGUS44 KSHV 101141
FLWSHV
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
641 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021
...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity and
increased in duration for the following bayou in Texas...
Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine affecting Sabine and San Augustine
Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
&&
For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv
TXC403-405-111315-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-210512T2200Z/
/AYIT2.2.ER.210510T0143Z.210510T1115Z.210512T0400Z.NO/
641 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021
...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity and
increased in duration until Wednesday afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
the Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine.
* Until Wednesday afternoon.
* At 6:15 AM CDT Monday the stage was 16.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 12 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum bayou stage in the 24 hours ending
at 6:15 AM CDT Monday was 16.8 feet.
* Forecast...The Ayish Bayou is expected to rise to a crest of 16.5
feet this Monday afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage
late Tuesday evening.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Secondary roads near the bayou will flood
and be barricaded. Moderate to severe lowland flooding will
continue for at least a couple of days.
&&
LAT...LON 3156 9415 3155 9409 3139 9414 3130 9412
3130 9416
$$
08946
WGUS44 KSHV 101157
FLWSHV
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
657 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021
...Forecast flooding changed from Moderate to Major severity and
increased in duration for the following bayou in Texas...
Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine affecting Sabine and San Augustine
Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.
&&
For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv
TXC403-405-111330-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-210512T2230Z/
/AYIT2.3.ER.210510T0143Z.210510T1800Z.210512T0430Z.NO/
657 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021
...Forecast flooding increased from Moderate to Major severity and
increased in duration until Wednesday afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
the Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine.
* Until Wednesday afternoon.
* At 6:15 AM CDT Monday the stage was 16.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 12 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum bayou stage in the 24 hours ending
at 6:15 AM CDT Monday was 16.8 feet.
* Forecast...The Ayish Bayou is expected to rise to a crest of 17.1
feet this Monday afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage
late Tuesday evening.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Secondary roads near the bayou will flood
and be barricaded. Moderate to severe lowland flooding will
continue for at least a couple of days.
&&
LAT...LON 3156 9415 3155 9409 3139 9414 3130 9412
3130 9416
$$
08558
WGUS84 KSHV 101405
FLSSHV
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
905 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following bayou in Texas...
Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine affecting Sabine and San Augustine
Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.
&&
For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv
TXC403-405-111545-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-210513T1648Z/
/AYIT2.3.ER.210510T0143Z.210510T1800Z.210512T2248Z.NO/
905 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021
...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late Thursday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
the Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine.
* Until Thursday morning.
* At 8:15 AM CDT Monday the stage was 17.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 12 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum bayou stage in the 24 hours ending
at 8:15 AM CDT Monday was 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Ayish Bayou is expected to rise to a crest of 17.1
feet this Monday afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage
Wednesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Secondary roads near the bayou will flood
and be barricaded. Moderate to severe lowland flooding will
continue for at least a couple of days.
&&
LAT...LON 3156 9415 3155 9409 3139 9414 3130 9412
3130 9416
$$
08574
WGUS84 KSHV 101717
FLSSHV
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1217 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021
...The Flood Warning continues for the following bayou in Texas...
Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine affecting Sabine and San Augustine
Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.
&&
For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv
TXC403-405-111900-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-210513T1400Z/
/AYIT2.2.ER.210510T0143Z.210510T1230Z.210512T2000Z.NO/
1217 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021
...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late Thursday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
the Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine.
* Until Thursday morning.
* At 11:15 AM CDT Monday the stage was 16.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 12 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum bayou stage in the 24 hours ending
at 11:15 AM CDT Monday was 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Ayish Bayou is expected to fall below flood stage
Wednesday afternoon and continue falling to 10.7 feet Saturday
morning.
* Impact...Expect moderate flooding to slowly diminish through
Tuesday morning.
&&
LAT...LON 3156 9415 3155 9409 3139 9414 3130 9412
3130 9416
$$
08680
WGUS84 KSHV 110127
FLSSHV
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
827 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...
Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine affecting Sabine and San Augustine
Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.
&&
For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv
TXC403-405-120130-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-210512T1200Z/
/AYIT2.1.ER.210510T0143Z.210510T1230Z.210511T1800Z.NO/
827 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021
...The Flood Warning is now in effect until Wednesday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
the Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine.
* Until Wednesday morning.
* At 8:15 PM CDT Monday the stage was 14.09 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage early
tomorrow afternoon and continue falling to 10.8 feet Saturday
evening.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, Lowland flooding will slowly decrease
during the next few days.
&&
LAT...LON 3156 9415 3155 9409 3139 9414 3130 9412
3130 9416
$$
25391
WGUS84 KSHV 111314
FLSSHV
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
814 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following bayou in Texas...
Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine affecting Sabine and San Augustine
Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.
&&
For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv
TXC403-405-121445-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-210515T0730Z/
/AYIT2.1.ER.210510T0143Z.210510T1230Z.210514T1330Z.NO/
814 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021
...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Saturday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
the Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine.
* Until late Friday night.
* At 7:15 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 12.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 12 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum bayou stage in the 24 hours ending
at 7:15 AM CDT Tuesday was 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Ayish Bayou will rise to 15.0 feet this Tuesday
evening. It will then fall below flood stage early Wednesday
afternoon to near 11.0 feet.
* Impact...At 14.5 feet, Minor lowland flooding of boat ramps.
Expect another round of flooding similar to what has occurred
several times during this springtime of 2021.
&&
LAT...LON 3156 9415 3155 9409 3139 9414 3130 9412
3130 9416
$$
08732
WGUS84 KSHV 120120
FLSSHV
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
820 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...
Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine affecting Sabine and San Augustine
Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.
&&
For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv
TXC403-405-130130-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-210515T0900Z/
/AYIT2.1.ER.210510T0143Z.210510T1230Z.210514T1500Z.NO/
820 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021
...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Saturday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
the Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine.
* Until late Friday night.
* At 7:15 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 12.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will fall to 11.5 feet and then begin rising
early Thursday morning. It will then rise above flood stage late
Friday morning to 12.3 feet early Friday morning. It will fall
below flood stage late Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet, Lowland flooding of the heavily wooded
floodplain will continue for the next several days.
&&
LAT...LON 3156 9415 3155 9409 3139 9414 3130 9412
3130 9416
$$
25476
WGUS84 KSHV 121342
FLSSHV
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
842 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021
...The Flood Warning continues for the following bayous in Texas...
Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine affecting Sabine and San Augustine
Counties.
Attoyac Bayou Near Chireno affecting Nacogdoches, Shelby, San
Augustine and Rusk Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.
&&
For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv
TXC403-405-131515-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-210514T1030Z/
/AYIT2.1.ER.210510T0143Z.210510T1230Z.210513T1630Z.NO/
842 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021
...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Friday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
the Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine.
* Until late Thursday night.
* At 8:15 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 12.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 12 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum bayou stage in the 24 hours ending
at 8:15 AM CDT Wednesday was 12.3 feet.
* Forecast...The Ayish Bayou will rise to 14.3 feet this Wednesday
evening. It will then fall below flood stage late Thursday morning
to 11.6 feet and begin rising again early Friday morning. It will
rise to 11.7 feet early Friday afternoon. It will then fall again
and remain below flood stage.
* Impact...At 14.5 feet, Minor lowland flooding of boat ramps.
&&
LAT...LON 3156 9415 3155 9409 3139 9414 3130 9412
3130 9416
$$
TXC347-401-405-419-131515-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ATBT2.1.ER.210430T0934Z.210501T1045Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
842 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021
...The Flood Warning remains in effect...
The Flood Warning continues for
the Attoyac Bayou Near Chireno.
* Until further notice.
* At 7:30 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 17.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 14 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum bayou stage in the 24 hours ending
at 7:30 AM CDT Wednesday was 17.4 feet.
* Forecast...The Attoyac Bayou is expected to rise to a crest of
19.1 feet early Friday morning.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, Expect minor lowland flooding of boat ramps
and pastures. Move livestock and equipment to higher ground.
&&
LAT...LON 3142 9432 3191 9451 3192 9447 3157 9429
3150 9430
$$
08063
WGUS84 KSHV 130331
FLSSHV
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1031 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021
...The Flood Warning continues for the following bayou in Texas...
Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine affecting Sabine and San Augustine
Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.
&&
For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv
TXC403-405-140200-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-210514T0200Z/
/AYIT2.1.ER.210510T0143Z.210510T1230Z.210513T0800Z.NO/
1031 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021
...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late tomorrow evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
the Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine.
* Until Thursday evening.
* At 8:15 PM CDT Wednesday the stage was 12.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 12 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum bayou stage in the 24 hours ending
at 8:15 PM CDT Wednesday was 12.7 feet.
* Forecast...The bayou is expected to rise to a crest of 12.1 feet
just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below flood stage
late tonight.
* Impact...At 12 feet, Lowland flooding of the heavily wooded
floodplain will continue for the next several days.
&&
LAT...LON 3156 9415 3155 9409 3139 9414 3130 9412
3130 9416
$$
16348
WGUS84 KSHV 131145
FLSSHV
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
645 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following bayou in Texas...
Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine affecting Sabine and San Augustine
Counties.
TXC403-405-131245-
/O.CAN.KSHV.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-210513T1145Z/
/AYIT2.1.ER.210510T0143Z.210510T1230Z.210513T0800Z.NO/
645 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021
...The Flood Warning for the Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine has been
cancelled...
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
the Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine.
* At 6:15 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 11.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 12 feet.
* Forecast...Expect Ayish Bayou to recede to near 10.5 feet by next
Monday.
&&
LAT...LON 3156 9415 3155 9409 3139 9414 3130 9412
3130 9416
$$
08What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Shreveport, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at May 9, 7:31 PM CDT, 55 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 9, 7:31 PM CDT, 55 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 731 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021 .AVIATION... Areas of convection will continue to affect the terminals s of I-30 this evening into the overnight hours. Low cigs/vsbys likely invof convection. In the wake of a swd-movg cold front later tonight into early Monday morning, MVFR/IFR cigs to develop and remain across most sites through the end of the pd. /12/ && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 256 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday Night/ Severe weather conditions wind down tonight, however, the main hazard will then evolve into a heavy rain threat, especially south of the I-20 corridor. With the frontal boundary slowing down as it approaches our southern zones, the potential for isolated flash flooding increases as it focuses moisture over Deep East Texas into Central Louisiana. That moisture includes well above average precipitable water values of at least 1.5 inches or more. What limits the magnitude of the flash flooding threat for tonight involves the eventual progression of the frontal boundary, which may prevent storms from training over the same areas. The WPC has a Day 1 slight risk for excessive rainfall of 2 to 3 inches (with isolated higher amounts possible) over most of the Ark-La-Tex with the latest update trending the risk area further south. While the flash flooding threat for tonight remains isolated, all rainfall from today reduces soil capacity for the additional rainfall arriving tomorrow and Tuesday, boosting the likelihood of Flash Flood Watch issuance after tonight. As the frontal boundary will linger over our area tonight, this bisection of air masses will produce a gradient of low temperatures ranging from the lower-50s north of the I-30 corridor to the upper-60s in Deep East Texas and Central Louisiana. This gradient of temperatures also continues into tomorrow with precipitation moderating the diurnal curve to a range of highs in the upper-60s to upper-70s. This second round of precipitation will develop along the frontal boundary, still lingering near the I-20 corridor on Monday afternoon, and continue through the night to keep temperatures mostly near average in the mid-50s to low- 60s. /16/ LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/ By Tuesday morning, the cold front should have slipped S of the region into SE TX/S LA, although the cool post-frontal air mass will remain shallow, with periods of overrunning becoming enhanced by weak perturbations aloft that will begin to eject NE across Cntrl and E TX ahead of shortwave troughing that will shift E into the Cntrl Plains and dampen. H850 troughing is progged to be over portions of SE Ok/Nrn sections of SW AR to start the period, but should begin to lift back N away from the area in response to the increased overrunning, with weak shortwave perturbations in the WSW flow aloft yielding an increase in slightly elevated convection as it begins to spread ENE into much of the region. Given some uncertainties with regards to timing of the convection, have delayed categorical pops until the afternoon for much of the area, although overall intensity and amounts are still in question given the lack of a more significant LLJ and low level focusing mechanism. However, should rainfall rates be high enough especially over areas that could receive locally heavy rainfall this afternoon and evening from the deeper convection ahead of the approaching cold front, then localized flooding will be a possibility over those areas, especially as the rains continue into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. A second shortwave trough translating ESE out of the Rockies and into the Plains Wednesday should amplify slightly enough such that a deep wedge of drier air will begin to advect SE through the region, thus diminishing the convection from NW to SE during the day. Post- frontal stratus will linger though, maintaining abnormally cool temps until a warming trend commences Thursday as cigs lift and begin to scatter out during the afternoon especially over portions of SW AR/N LA. Sfc ridging remains progged to nose into the region Thursday as well, as it shifts SE into the Mid-South region Friday, resulting in a comfortable return of cooler temps and lower RH's. Mild afternoon temps and lower RH's should persist to round out the new work week, before a warming trend commences Saturday as SSE low level winds return on the backside of the retreating sfc ridge as it enters the TN Valley/Gulf States. There is better model consensus today in regards to flat ridging aloft building over the Srn Plains next weekend, despite the presence of potential shortwave energy dropping SE atop the ridge over OK/AR Saturday. Low level moisture advection looks to remain too shallow to support even any isolated convection, and thus have removed pops Saturday across the Nrn and Wrn zones, although the moisture profile may be a bit deeper Sunday with the next potential shortwave (per the ECMWF) rounding atop the ridge along the Red River Valley. Thus, slight chance pops were retained for E TX/SE OK/adjacent SW AR, as temps return to more seasonal norms. 15 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 62 70 58 68 / 70 50 70 90 MLU 61 69 58 69 / 90 50 50 80 DEQ 53 67 53 62 / 10 30 60 70 TXK 55 65 55 63 / 40 30 70 80 ELD 54 66 53 64 / 70 40 60 70 TYR 61 70 58 68 / 40 40 70 90 GGG 62 70 57 68 / 60 50 70 90 LFK 68 80 64 74 / 70 60 50 80 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && 12/16/15
Hazardous weather outlook, May 9, 12:02 PM CDT, 8 hours 24 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1202 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021 ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077- TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-101100- Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette- Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto- Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn- Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp- Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk- Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine- 1202 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight... Showers and thunderstorms will increase this afternoon across the region, near and ahead of a cold front that will enter Northeast Texas and Southwest Arkansas. The threat for severe weather will increase as well for much of the region, with damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado or two possible. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible in the stronger storms, which may lead to localized flash flooding. These storms should gradually diminish across East Texas and North Louisiana late this evening and overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday... As the cold front continues to shift south into Lower East Texas and North Louisiana south of the Interstate 20 corridor late tonight, it should stall Monday over portions of Deep East Texas and Central Louisiana, with overrunning atop the shallow front contributing to additional periods of showers and a few thunderstorms across the region through Wednesday. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible, especially Tuesday and Tuesday night, which may lead to localized flooding. Isolated strong storms also can not be ruled out, with hail and locally gusty winds possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio operators...and storm spotters will be needed this afternoon and evening. 15
In the hours before
Local storm report, May 9, 7:42 PM CDT, 44 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
742 PM CDT SUN MAY 9 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0710 PM TSTM WND DMG LUFKIN 31.34N 94.73W
05/09/2021 ANGELINA TX DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
DOWNED TREES REPORTED ON FM 2497, FM 328, FM
1669, SH 103 WEST, FM 1475, FM 706 AT
CRAWFORD CREEK AND FM 2109. CREWS ARE
RESPONDING TO DOWNED TREES IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN ANGELINA COUNTY INCLUDING SH
103 WEST NEAR NEWMAN ROAD, FM 1475 AND US 69
NORTH FOR FLOODED ROADWAYS. DOWNED TREES
REPORTED ON FM 1669 AND FM 328.
&&
25Special weather statement, May 9, 8:05 PM CDT, 21 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
805 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021
LAZ018>020-100200-
Winn LA-Natchitoches LA-Grant LA-
805 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GRANT...SOUTHEASTERN NATCHITOCHES
AND SOUTH CENTRAL WINN PARISHES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...
At 805 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northeast of Montgomery to near
Flatwoods. Movement was east at 20 mph.
Strong winds of 40 to 50 will be possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Ball, Colfax, Pollock, Dry Prong, Lake Iatt, Aloha, Williana and
Bentley.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
north central and northwestern Louisiana.
LAT...LON 3141 9267 3140 9268 3140 9270 3142 9268
3143 9269 3145 9268 3144 9270 3145 9271
3147 9271 3147 9269 3152 9272 3142 9285
3142 9287 3179 9282 3179 9240 3143 9243
3139 9266
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 282DEG 16KT 3172 9277 3140 9279
15Special weather statement, May 9, 8:14 PM CDT, 12 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
814 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021
ARZ072-073-LAZ004-006-100215-
Union AR-Columbia AR-Union LA-Claiborne LA-
814 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN UNION AND SOUTHEASTERN
COLUMBIA COUNTIES...UNION AND NORTHERN CLAIBORNE PARISHES UNTIL 915
PM CDT...
At 814 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Huttig to near Haynesville. Movement was
southeast at 25 mph.
Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Huttig, Junction City, Farmerville, Haynesville, Bernice, Atlanta,
Cooley, Marion, Lisbon, Felsenthal, Spearsville, Lillie, Hew Hope,
Antioch, Aurelle, Oakland, Linville, Haile, Taylorville and
Summerfield.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
south central and southwestern Arkansas...and north central and
northwestern Louisiana.
LAT...LON 3277 9297 3308 9329 3310 9214 3307 9213
3307 9211 3303 9211 3303 9209 3301 9207
3298 9208 3297 9207 3297 9208 3292 9207
3287 9208 3284 9206 3282 9207 3279 9205
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 311DEG 20KT 3306 9217 3304 9315
33Local storm report, May 9, 8:15 PM CDT, 11 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
815 PM CDT SUN MAY 9 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0650 PM FLASH FLOOD LUFKIN 31.34N 94.73W
05/09/2021 ANGELINA TX DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
CORRECTS TIME FOR PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD
REPORT FROM LUFKIN. HIGH WATER REPORTED ON
FM 2497, FM 328, FM 1669, SH 103 WEST, FM
1475, FM 706 AT CRAWFORD CREEK AND FM 2109.
SH 103 WEST NEAR NEWMAN ROAD, FM 1475 AND US
69 NORTH FOR FLOODED ROADWAYS. SEVERAL ROADS
IN LUFKIN ARE REPORTED FLOODED WITH REPORTS
OF ENTRAPMENT IN SOME AREAS OF HIGH WATER.
TRAFFIC IS HEAVY ON SL 287 SOUTH NEAR THE US
59 FLYOVER AND SOME VEHICLES REPORTEDLY ARE
TRAVELING THE WRONG DIRECTION TO AVOID
FLOODED ROADWAYS.
&&
25Special weather statement, May 9, 8:15 PM CDT, 11 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
815 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021
LAZ003-004-012-100215-
Bienville LA-Claiborne LA-Webster LA-
815 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WEBSTER...SOUTHWESTERN
CLAIBORNE AND NORTH CENTRAL BIENVILLE PARISHES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...
At 815 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shongaloo, or 7 miles southeast of Springhill, moving southeast at 35
mph.
Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Minden, Homer, Cotton Valley, Gibsland, Sarepta, Shongaloo,
Evergreen, Athens, Mount Lebanon, Leton, Holly Springs, Aycock,
Spring Lake, Lake Clairborne and Ada.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
southwestern Arkansas...and north central and northwestern Louisiana.
LAT...LON 3246 9315 3287 9345 3289 9348 3290 9348
3290 9347 3292 9347 3302 9336 3302 9325
3269 9286 3267 9287 3263 9286
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 308DEG 30KT 3293 9336
33Special weather statement, May 9, 8:20 PM CDT, 6 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
820 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021
TXZ165-100200-
Angelina TX-
820 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ANGELINA COUNTY UNTIL
900 PM CDT...
At 820 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Apple Springs to 6 miles southwest of
Diboll to 8 miles northwest of Corrigan. Movement was east at 30 mph.
Half inch to penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be
possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Lufkin, Diboll, Huntington, Burke, Zavalla, Shawnee, Homer and Dolan.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
eastern Texas.
LAT...LON 3104 9449 3107 9459 3110 9465 3109 9467
3111 9472 3111 9475 3115 9485 3123 9486
3126 9490 3128 9488 3130 9490 3129 9442
3108 9425 3103 9447
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 278DEG 27KT 3127 9496 3115 9488 3105 9496
15The office that day
Everything else NWS Shreveport, LA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 8:20 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | SHV | Angelina | 40 min |
| May 9, 8:23 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | SHV | Anderson, Cherokee, Houston, Trinity | 35 days |
| May 9, 11:10 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | SHV | Nacogdoches | 50 min |
| May 10, 12:04 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | SHV | Angelina | 41 min |
| May 10, 12:15 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SHV | Camp, Franklin, Titus, Upshur, Wood | 45 min |
| May 10, 12:41 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SHV | Bowie, Franklin, Morris, Red River, Titus | 49 min |
| May 10, 1:00 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SHV | Camp, Cass, Marion, Morris, Titus, Upshur | 45 min |
| May 10, 1:08 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | SHV | Franklin | 37 min |
| May 10, 1:29 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | SHV | Titus | 46 min |
| May 10, 1:44 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SHV | Camp, Cass, Marion, Morris, Titus | 46 min |
| May 10, 2:25 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SHV | Cass, Harrison, Marion | 65 min |
| May 10, 3:06 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | SHV | Red River | 39 min |
| May 10, 5:20 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | SHV | Harrison | 40 min |
| May 10, 6:29 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | SHV | Morris, Titus | 46 min |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Texas, 2021Every river flood warning in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.