Alert archive / Texas / River Flood Warnings in 2021

River Flood Warning 68, NWS Shreveport, LA

May 9, 2021Sabine County, San Augustine County, Texas

NWS Shreveport, LA issued this river flood warning at May 9, 2021, 8:26 PM CDT for Sabine County, San Augustine County, Texas. It took effect at May 10, 2021, 1:40 AM CDT. It was in force for 3 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 9, 2021, 8:26 PM CDT (01:26 UTC)
In effect from
May 10, 2021, 1:40 AM CDT
Expired
May 13, 2021, 6:45 AM CDT
In force
3 days
Issued by
NWS Shreveport, LA
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Sabine County, TX, San Augustine County, TX

The radar

The Ft Polk radar (KPOE), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Ayish Bayou near San Augustine (AYIT2). The gauge peaked at 17.00 ft at May 10, 2021, 8:00 AM CDT.

actionminormoderatemajor5101505/1005/1105/1205/1305/14
Action stage
11.5 ft
Minor stage
12 ft
Moderate stage
16 ft
Major stage
17 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 08039100, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

134 
WGUS44 KSHV 100126
FLWSHV

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
826 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

...The National Weather Service in Shreveport LA has issued a Flood 
Warning for the following rivers in Texas...

  Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine affecting Sabine and San Augustine 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv


TXC403-405-110130-
/O.NEW.KSHV.FL.W.0068.210510T0640Z-210511T1800Z/
/AYIT2.1.ER.210510T0640Z.210510T1200Z.210511T0000Z.NO/
826 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a

* Flood Warning for
  the Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine.
* From late tonight to Tuesday afternoon.
* At 8:15 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 11.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage just 
  after midnight tonight to a crest of 13.6 feet tomorrow morning. 
  It will then fall below flood stage tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, Lowland flooding will slowly decrease 
  during the next few days.


&&

LAT...LON 3156 9415 3155 9409 3139 9414 3130 9412
      3130 9416

$$

25
10 follow-up statements
266 
WGUS44 KSHV 101141
FLWSHV

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
641 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity and 
increased in duration for the following bayou in Texas...

  Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine affecting Sabine and San Augustine 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv


TXC403-405-111315-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-210512T2200Z/
/AYIT2.2.ER.210510T0143Z.210510T1115Z.210512T0400Z.NO/
641 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity and 
increased in duration until Wednesday afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine.
* Until Wednesday afternoon.
* At 6:15 AM CDT Monday the stage was 16.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 12 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum bayou stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 6:15 AM CDT Monday was 16.8 feet.
* Forecast...The Ayish Bayou is expected to rise to a crest of 16.5 
  feet this Monday  afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage 
  late Tuesday evening.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Secondary roads near the bayou will flood 
  and be barricaded.  Moderate to severe lowland flooding will 
  continue for at least a couple of days.


&&

LAT...LON 3156 9415 3155 9409 3139 9414 3130 9412
      3130 9416

$$

08
946 
WGUS44 KSHV 101157
FLWSHV

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
657 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...Forecast flooding changed from Moderate to Major severity and 
increased in duration for the following bayou in Texas...

  Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine affecting Sabine and San Augustine 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv


TXC403-405-111330-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-210512T2230Z/
/AYIT2.3.ER.210510T0143Z.210510T1800Z.210512T0430Z.NO/
657 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...Forecast flooding increased from Moderate to Major severity and 
increased in duration until Wednesday afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine.
* Until Wednesday afternoon.
* At 6:15 AM CDT Monday the stage was 16.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 12 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum bayou stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 6:15 AM CDT Monday was 16.8 feet.
* Forecast...The Ayish Bayou is expected to rise to a crest of 17.1 
  feet this Monday  afternoon.  It will then fall below flood stage 
  late Tuesday evening.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Secondary roads near the bayou will flood 
  and be barricaded. Moderate to severe lowland flooding will 
  continue for at least a couple of days.


&&

LAT...LON 3156 9415 3155 9409 3139 9414 3130 9412
      3130 9416

$$

08
558 
WGUS84 KSHV 101405
FLSSHV

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
905 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following bayou in Texas...

  Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine affecting Sabine and San Augustine 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv


TXC403-405-111545-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-210513T1648Z/
/AYIT2.3.ER.210510T0143Z.210510T1800Z.210512T2248Z.NO/
905 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late Thursday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine.
* Until Thursday morning.
* At 8:15 AM CDT Monday the stage was 17.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 12 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum bayou stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:15 AM CDT Monday was 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Ayish Bayou is expected to rise to a crest of 17.1 
  feet this Monday afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage 
  Wednesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, Secondary roads near the bayou will flood 
  and be barricaded. Moderate to severe lowland flooding will 
  continue for at least a couple of days.


&&

LAT...LON 3156 9415 3155 9409 3139 9414 3130 9412
      3130 9416

$$

08
574 
WGUS84 KSHV 101717
FLSSHV

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1217 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following bayou in Texas...

  Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine affecting Sabine and San Augustine 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv


TXC403-405-111900-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-210513T1400Z/
/AYIT2.2.ER.210510T0143Z.210510T1230Z.210512T2000Z.NO/
1217 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late Thursday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine.
* Until Thursday morning.
* At 11:15 AM CDT Monday the stage was 16.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 12 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum bayou stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 11:15 AM CDT Monday was 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Ayish Bayou is expected to fall below flood stage 
  Wednesday afternoon and continue falling to 10.7 feet Saturday 
  morning.
* Impact...Expect moderate flooding to slowly diminish through 
  Tuesday morning.


&&

LAT...LON 3156 9415 3155 9409 3139 9414 3130 9412
      3130 9416

$$

08
680 
WGUS84 KSHV 110127
FLSSHV

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
827 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine affecting Sabine and San Augustine 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv


TXC403-405-120130-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-210512T1200Z/
/AYIT2.1.ER.210510T0143Z.210510T1230Z.210511T1800Z.NO/
827 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until Wednesday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine.
* Until Wednesday morning.
* At 8:15 PM CDT Monday the stage was 14.09 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage early 
  tomorrow afternoon and continue falling to 10.8 feet Saturday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, Lowland flooding will slowly decrease 
  during the next few days.


&&

LAT...LON 3156 9415 3155 9409 3139 9414 3130 9412
      3130 9416

$$

25
391 
WGUS84 KSHV 111314
FLSSHV

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
814 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following bayou in Texas...

  Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine affecting Sabine and San Augustine 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv


TXC403-405-121445-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-210515T0730Z/
/AYIT2.1.ER.210510T0143Z.210510T1230Z.210514T1330Z.NO/
814 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Saturday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine.
* Until late Friday night.
* At 7:15 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 12.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 12 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum bayou stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 7:15 AM CDT Tuesday was 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Ayish Bayou will rise to 15.0 feet this Tuesday 
  evening. It will then fall below flood stage early Wednesday 
  afternoon to near 11.0 feet.
* Impact...At 14.5 feet, Minor lowland flooding of boat ramps.  
  Expect another round of flooding similar to what has occurred 
  several times during this springtime of 2021.


&&

LAT...LON 3156 9415 3155 9409 3139 9414 3130 9412
      3130 9416

$$

08
732 
WGUS84 KSHV 120120
FLSSHV

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
820 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine affecting Sabine and San Augustine 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv


TXC403-405-130130-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-210515T0900Z/
/AYIT2.1.ER.210510T0143Z.210510T1230Z.210514T1500Z.NO/
820 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Saturday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine.
* Until late Friday night.
* At 7:15 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 12.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will fall to 11.5 feet and then begin rising 
  early Thursday morning. It will then rise above flood stage late 
  Friday morning to 12.3 feet early Friday morning. It will fall 
  below flood stage late Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet, Lowland flooding of the heavily wooded 
  floodplain will continue for the next several days.


&&

LAT...LON 3156 9415 3155 9409 3139 9414 3130 9412
      3130 9416

$$

25
476 
WGUS84 KSHV 121342
FLSSHV

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
842 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following bayous in Texas...

  Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine affecting Sabine and San Augustine 
  Counties.

  Attoyac Bayou Near Chireno affecting Nacogdoches, Shelby, San 
  Augustine and Rusk Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv


TXC403-405-131515-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-210514T1030Z/
/AYIT2.1.ER.210510T0143Z.210510T1230Z.210513T1630Z.NO/
842 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Friday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine.
* Until late Thursday night.
* At 8:15 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 12.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 12 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum bayou stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:15 AM CDT Wednesday was 12.3 feet.
* Forecast...The Ayish Bayou will rise to 14.3 feet this Wednesday 
  evening. It will then fall below flood stage late Thursday morning 
  to 11.6 feet and begin rising again early Friday morning. It will 
  rise to 11.7 feet early Friday afternoon. It will then fall again 
  and remain below flood stage.
* Impact...At 14.5 feet, Minor lowland flooding of boat ramps.


&&

LAT...LON 3156 9415 3155 9409 3139 9414 3130 9412
      3130 9416

$$

TXC347-401-405-419-131515-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ATBT2.1.ER.210430T0934Z.210501T1045Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
842 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Attoyac Bayou Near Chireno.
* Until further notice.
* At 7:30 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 17.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 14 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum bayou stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 7:30 AM CDT Wednesday was 17.4 feet.
* Forecast...The Attoyac Bayou is expected to rise to a crest of 
  19.1 feet early Friday morning.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, Expect minor lowland flooding of boat ramps 
  and pastures.  Move livestock and equipment to higher ground.


&&

LAT...LON 3142 9432 3191 9451 3192 9447 3157 9429
      3150 9430

$$

08
063 
WGUS84 KSHV 130331
FLSSHV

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1031 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following bayou in Texas...

  Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine affecting Sabine and San Augustine 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv


TXC403-405-140200-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-210514T0200Z/
/AYIT2.1.ER.210510T0143Z.210510T1230Z.210513T0800Z.NO/
1031 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late tomorrow evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine.
* Until Thursday evening.
* At 8:15 PM CDT Wednesday the stage was 12.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 12 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum bayou stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:15 PM CDT Wednesday was 12.7 feet.
* Forecast...The bayou is expected to rise to a crest of 12.1 feet 
  just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below flood stage 
  late tonight.
* Impact...At 12 feet, Lowland flooding of the heavily wooded 
  floodplain will continue for the next several days.


&&

LAT...LON 3156 9415 3155 9409 3139 9414 3130 9412
      3130 9416

$$

16
348 
WGUS84 KSHV 131145
FLSSHV

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
645 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following bayou in Texas...

  Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine affecting Sabine and San Augustine 
  Counties.

TXC403-405-131245-
/O.CAN.KSHV.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-210513T1145Z/
/AYIT2.1.ER.210510T0143Z.210510T1230Z.210513T0800Z.NO/
645 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine.
* At 6:15 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 11.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 12 feet.
* Forecast...Expect Ayish Bayou to recede to near 10.5 feet by next 
  Monday.


&&

LAT...LON 3156 9415 3155 9409 3139 9414 3130 9412
      3130 9416

$$

08

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Shreveport, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at May 9, 7:31 PM CDT, 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 9, 7:31 PM CDT, 55 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
731 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

.AVIATION...

Areas of convection will continue to affect the terminals s of
I-30 this evening into the overnight hours. Low cigs/vsbys likely
invof convection. In the wake of a swd-movg cold front later
tonight into early Monday morning, MVFR/IFR cigs to develop and
remain across most sites through the end of the pd. /12/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 256 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday Night/

Severe weather conditions wind down tonight, however, the main
hazard will then evolve into a heavy rain threat, especially south
of the I-20 corridor. With the frontal boundary slowing down as it
approaches our southern zones, the potential for isolated flash
flooding increases as it focuses moisture over Deep East Texas
into Central Louisiana. That moisture includes well above average
precipitable water values of at least 1.5 inches or more. What
limits the magnitude of the flash flooding threat for tonight
involves the eventual progression of the frontal boundary, which
may prevent storms from training over the same areas. The WPC has
a Day 1 slight risk for excessive rainfall of 2 to 3 inches (with
isolated higher amounts possible) over most of the Ark-La-Tex with
the latest update trending the risk area further south. While the
flash flooding threat for tonight remains isolated, all rainfall
from today reduces soil capacity for the additional rainfall
arriving tomorrow and Tuesday, boosting the likelihood of Flash
Flood Watch issuance after tonight.

As the frontal boundary will linger over our area tonight, this
bisection of air masses will produce a gradient of low
temperatures ranging from the lower-50s north of the I-30 corridor
to the upper-60s in Deep East Texas and Central Louisiana. This
gradient of temperatures also continues into tomorrow with
precipitation moderating the diurnal curve to a range of highs in
the upper-60s to upper-70s. This second round of precipitation
will develop along the frontal boundary, still lingering near the
I-20 corridor on Monday afternoon, and continue through the night
to keep temperatures mostly near average in the mid-50s to low-
60s. /16/

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/

By Tuesday morning, the cold front should have slipped S of the
region into SE TX/S LA, although the cool post-frontal air mass will
remain shallow, with periods of overrunning becoming enhanced by
weak perturbations aloft that will begin to eject NE across Cntrl
and E TX ahead of shortwave troughing that will shift E into the
Cntrl Plains and dampen. H850 troughing is progged to be over
portions of SE Ok/Nrn sections of SW AR to start the period, but
should begin to lift back N away from the area in response to the
increased overrunning, with weak shortwave perturbations in the WSW
flow aloft yielding an increase in slightly elevated convection as
it begins to spread ENE into much of the region. Given some
uncertainties with regards to timing of the convection, have delayed
categorical pops until the afternoon for much of the area, although
overall intensity and amounts are still in question given the lack
of a more significant LLJ and low level focusing mechanism. However,
should rainfall rates be high enough especially over areas that
could receive locally heavy rainfall this afternoon and evening from
the deeper convection ahead of the approaching cold front, then
localized flooding will be a possibility over those areas,
especially as the rains continue into Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning.

A second shortwave trough translating ESE out of the Rockies and
into the Plains Wednesday should amplify slightly enough such that a
deep wedge of drier air will begin to advect SE through the region,
thus diminishing the convection from NW to SE during the day. Post-
frontal stratus will linger though, maintaining abnormally cool
temps until a warming trend commences Thursday as cigs lift and
begin to scatter out during the afternoon especially over portions
of SW AR/N LA. Sfc ridging remains progged to nose into the region
Thursday as well, as it shifts SE into the Mid-South region Friday,
resulting in a comfortable return of cooler temps and lower RH's.
Mild afternoon temps and lower RH's should persist to round out the
new work week, before a warming trend commences Saturday as SSE low
level winds return on the backside of the retreating sfc ridge as it
enters the TN Valley/Gulf States. There is better model consensus
today in regards to flat ridging aloft building over the Srn Plains
next weekend, despite the presence of potential shortwave energy
dropping SE atop the ridge over OK/AR Saturday. Low level moisture
advection looks to remain too shallow to support even any isolated
convection, and thus have removed pops Saturday across the Nrn and
Wrn zones, although the moisture profile may be a bit deeper Sunday
with the next potential shortwave (per the ECMWF) rounding atop the
ridge along the Red River Valley. Thus, slight chance pops were
retained for E TX/SE OK/adjacent SW AR, as temps return to more
seasonal norms.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  70  58  68 /  70  50  70  90
MLU  61  69  58  69 /  90  50  50  80
DEQ  53  67  53  62 /  10  30  60  70
TXK  55  65  55  63 /  40  30  70  80
ELD  54  66  53  64 /  70  40  60  70
TYR  61  70  58  68 /  40  40  70  90
GGG  62  70  57  68 /  60  50  70  90
LFK  68  80  64  74 /  70  60  50  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

12/16/15
Hazardous weather outlook, May 9, 12:02 PM CDT, 8 hours 24 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1202 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-101100-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1202 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms will increase this afternoon across the
region, near and ahead of a cold front that will enter Northeast
Texas and Southwest Arkansas. The threat for severe weather will
increase as well for much of the region, with damaging winds,
large hail, and an isolated tornado or two possible. Locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible in the stronger storms, which may
lead to localized flash flooding. These storms should gradually
diminish across East Texas and North Louisiana late this evening
and overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

As the cold front continues to shift south into Lower East Texas
and North Louisiana south of the Interstate 20 corridor late
tonight, it should stall Monday over portions of Deep East Texas
and Central Louisiana, with overrunning atop the shallow front
contributing to additional periods of showers and a few
thunderstorms across the region through Wednesday. Periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible, especially Tuesday
and Tuesday night, which may lead to localized flooding. Isolated
strong storms also can not be ruled out, with hail and locally
gusty winds possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will be needed this afternoon and
evening.

15

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 9, 7:42 PM CDT, 44 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
742 PM CDT SUN MAY 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LUFKIN                  31.34N 94.73W
05/09/2021                   ANGELINA           TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            DOWNED TREES REPORTED ON FM 2497, FM 328, FM
            1669, SH 103 WEST, FM 1475, FM 706 AT
            CRAWFORD CREEK AND FM 2109. CREWS ARE
            RESPONDING TO DOWNED TREES IN SEVERAL
            LOCATIONS IN ANGELINA COUNTY INCLUDING SH
            103 WEST NEAR NEWMAN ROAD, FM 1475 AND US 69
            NORTH FOR FLOODED ROADWAYS. DOWNED TREES
            REPORTED ON FM 1669 AND FM 328.

&&

25
Special weather statement, May 9, 8:05 PM CDT, 21 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
805 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

LAZ018>020-100200-
Winn LA-Natchitoches LA-Grant LA-
805 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GRANT...SOUTHEASTERN NATCHITOCHES
AND SOUTH CENTRAL WINN PARISHES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 805 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northeast of Montgomery to near
Flatwoods. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Strong winds of 40 to 50 will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Ball, Colfax, Pollock, Dry Prong, Lake Iatt, Aloha, Williana and
Bentley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
north central and northwestern Louisiana.

LAT...LON 3141 9267 3140 9268 3140 9270 3142 9268
      3143 9269 3145 9268 3144 9270 3145 9271
      3147 9271 3147 9269 3152 9272 3142 9285
      3142 9287 3179 9282 3179 9240 3143 9243
      3139 9266
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 282DEG 16KT 3172 9277 3140 9279

15
Special weather statement, May 9, 8:14 PM CDT, 12 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
814 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

ARZ072-073-LAZ004-006-100215-
Union AR-Columbia AR-Union LA-Claiborne LA-
814 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN UNION AND SOUTHEASTERN
COLUMBIA COUNTIES...UNION AND NORTHERN CLAIBORNE PARISHES UNTIL 915
PM CDT...

At 814 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Huttig to near Haynesville. Movement was
southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Huttig, Junction City, Farmerville, Haynesville, Bernice, Atlanta,
Cooley, Marion, Lisbon, Felsenthal, Spearsville, Lillie, Hew Hope,
Antioch, Aurelle, Oakland, Linville, Haile, Taylorville and
Summerfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
south central and southwestern Arkansas...and north central and
northwestern Louisiana.

LAT...LON 3277 9297 3308 9329 3310 9214 3307 9213
      3307 9211 3303 9211 3303 9209 3301 9207
      3298 9208 3297 9207 3297 9208 3292 9207
      3287 9208 3284 9206 3282 9207 3279 9205
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 311DEG 20KT 3306 9217 3304 9315

33
Local storm report, May 9, 8:15 PM CDT, 11 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
815 PM CDT SUN MAY 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LUFKIN                  31.34N 94.73W
05/09/2021                   ANGELINA           TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            CORRECTS TIME FOR PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD
            REPORT FROM LUFKIN. HIGH WATER REPORTED ON
            FM 2497, FM 328, FM 1669, SH 103 WEST, FM
            1475, FM 706 AT CRAWFORD CREEK AND FM 2109.
            SH 103 WEST NEAR NEWMAN ROAD, FM 1475 AND US
            69 NORTH FOR FLOODED ROADWAYS. SEVERAL ROADS
            IN LUFKIN ARE REPORTED FLOODED WITH REPORTS
            OF ENTRAPMENT IN SOME AREAS OF HIGH WATER.
            TRAFFIC IS HEAVY ON SL 287 SOUTH NEAR THE US
            59 FLYOVER AND SOME VEHICLES REPORTEDLY ARE
            TRAVELING THE WRONG DIRECTION TO AVOID
            FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

25
Special weather statement, May 9, 8:15 PM CDT, 11 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
815 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

LAZ003-004-012-100215-
Bienville LA-Claiborne LA-Webster LA-
815 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WEBSTER...SOUTHWESTERN
CLAIBORNE AND NORTH CENTRAL BIENVILLE PARISHES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

At 815 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shongaloo, or 7 miles southeast of Springhill, moving southeast at 35
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Minden, Homer, Cotton Valley, Gibsland, Sarepta, Shongaloo,
Evergreen, Athens, Mount Lebanon, Leton, Holly Springs, Aycock,
Spring Lake, Lake Clairborne and Ada.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
southwestern Arkansas...and north central and northwestern Louisiana.

LAT...LON 3246 9315 3287 9345 3289 9348 3290 9348
      3290 9347 3292 9347 3302 9336 3302 9325
      3269 9286 3267 9287 3263 9286
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 308DEG 30KT 3293 9336

33
Special weather statement, May 9, 8:20 PM CDT, 6 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
820 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

TXZ165-100200-
Angelina TX-
820 PM CDT Sun May 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ANGELINA COUNTY UNTIL
900 PM CDT...

At 820 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Apple Springs to 6 miles southwest of
Diboll to 8 miles northwest of Corrigan. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Half inch to penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be
possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lufkin, Diboll, Huntington, Burke, Zavalla, Shawnee, Homer and Dolan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
eastern Texas.

LAT...LON 3104 9449 3107 9459 3110 9465 3109 9467
      3111 9472 3111 9475 3115 9485 3123 9486
      3126 9490 3128 9488 3130 9490 3129 9442
      3108 9425 3103 9447
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 278DEG 27KT 3127 9496 3115 9488 3105 9496

15

The office that day

Everything else NWS Shreveport, LA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 9, 8:20 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementSHVAngelina40 min
May 9, 8:23 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningSHVAnderson, Cherokee, Houston, Trinity35 days
May 9, 11:10 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementSHVNacogdoches50 min
May 10, 12:04 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementSHVAngelina41 min
May 10, 12:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVCamp, Franklin, Titus, Upshur, Wood45 min
May 10, 12:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVBowie, Franklin, Morris, Red River, Titus49 min
May 10, 1:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVCamp, Cass, Marion, Morris, Titus, Upshur45 min
May 10, 1:08 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementSHVFranklin37 min
May 10, 1:29 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementSHVTitus46 min
May 10, 1:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVCamp, Cass, Marion, Morris, Titus46 min
May 10, 2:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVCass, Harrison, Marion65 min
May 10, 3:06 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementSHVRed River39 min
May 10, 5:20 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementSHVHarrison40 min
May 10, 6:29 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementSHVMorris, Titus46 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Texas, 2021Every river flood warning in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.