Areal Flood Advisory 13, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
230 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday Night/

Convection to persist along a weak MCS boundary through the
remainder of the afternoon, diminishing early this evening before
reaching MLU/ELD. Could see gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall
with some storms.

A weak upper-trough sweeping east within near zonal flow across
the Red River Valley of north Texas into Arkansas will support
scattered convection overnight mainly north of Interstate 20. On
Wednesday morning, convection to become more widespread across
southern Arkansas into North Louisiana as upper-trough interacts
with lingering boundary that swept across the region today.

Temperatures both tonight and Wednesday night to fall to around
70 degrees, with high temperatures on Wednesday in the mid to
upper 80s. /05/

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/

As we move ahead into the long-term period, upper ridging to our SW
will generally maintain warm and dry conditions during Thursday with
highs in the mid and upper 80s to near 90 degrees. However, a late
season cold front will arrive by late Thursday night through early
Friday with showers and thunderstorms advancing down to I-30 and
then expanding areawide through the day on Friday with the front
slowing its southward progression and potentially stalling briefly.
Looking farther out to Friday night, the front will get some added
forcing from a potent shortwave disturbance diving down across the
Middle Red River Valley late Friday night through Saturday morning.
This shortwave will help to reinforce the front farther south and
aid in additional convection through much of Saturday before both
features advance farther south toward the coast by Saturday night
into Sunday. The threat of severe weather with this shortwave still
appears to be generally low for now with less instability overnight,
but it will be worth monitoring as we get closer to Friday night and
Saturday morning.

Expect below normal temperatures to persist from Saturday through
Sunday with much improved weather on Sunday behind the cold front.
Favorable weather looks to extend into the Memorial Day holiday on
Monday as upper level ridging is expected to return and serve as the
dominant feature through early next week. The GFS does indicate some
subtle signs of possible sea breeze convection during the afternoon
hours both Monday and Tuesday with the ridge weakening slightly, but
the ECMWF is firm in keeping the upper ridge more dominant across
our region and the forecast does generally reflect more of the ECMWF
solution with temperatures returning near normal for late May/early
June.

/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1231 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021/

AVIATION...
With the exception of ELD/MLU, showers and thunderstorms expected
across area terminals through 26/00Z. Conditions to improve
overnight with showers and isolated thunderstorms again possible
across ELD/MLU from 26/12Z-26/18Z. Mainly VFR conditions to
prevail across area terminals with the exception of MVFR ceilings
possible areawide from 26/06Z-26/17Z. Otherwise, south winds 10
knots this afternoon to become 5 knots or less overnight,
increasing to 10 knots again on Wednesday. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  71  89 /  30  30   0  10
MLU  69  87  70  89 /  20  30   0  10
DEQ  68  85  69  87 /  30  40  10  10
TXK  70  86  71  88 /  30  30  10  10
ELD  68  87  68  90 /  40  30  10  10
TYR  70  86  71  88 /  20  20   0   0
GGG  69  85  69  86 /  30  20   0   0
LFK  69  87  69  88 /  20  30   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

05/19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
253 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-262000-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
253 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon
through early this evening. A few storms could produce strong
gusty winds, locally heavy rain, and localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue into Wednesday as
a weak upper level low moves across the region. Dry and very warm
conditions are expected on Thursday, but showers and thunderstorms
will return starting late Thursday night and continue on through
Friday and Saturday in association with a late spring season cold
front followed by a strong upper level disturbance. A few storms
could produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain, while isolated
flash flooding cannot be ruled out. More favorable weather will
return on Sunday through the Memorial Day holiday with very low
rain chances.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators, and storm spotters is not anticipated through tonight.

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
530 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

LAZ017-TXZ153-166-167-252315-
Sabine LA-Sabine TX-San Augustine TX-Shelby TX-
530 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SABINE PARISH...SOUTHEASTERN
SHELBY...EASTERN SAN AUGUSTINE AND SABINE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM
CDT...

At 530 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Patroon to 7 miles north of Rosevine to
near Pineland to near Browndell to near Rockland. Movement was east
at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Milam, Many, Zwolle, Hemphill, Pineland, Rosevine, Patroon, Florien,
Huxley, Noble, Fisher, Hurstown, Sexton, Fairmount, Belmont, Bronson,
McElroy, Negreet, Yellowpine and Toledo Bend Reservoir North.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3131 9402 3152 9402 3177 9408 3176 9346
      3145 9339 3136 9339 3128 9344 3128 9353
      3125 9354 3124 9356 3123 9354 3119 9355
      3117 9358 3118 9363 3116 9391 3114 9404
      3112 9404 3111 9410
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 277DEG 27KT 3170 9401 3152 9397 3130 9397 3108
9406 3097 9431

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
534 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

LAZ001-002-010>012-017-018-252315-
De Soto LA-Bossier LA-Bienville LA-Natchitoches LA-Red River LA-
Caddo LA-Sabine LA-
534 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DE SOTO...RED
RIVER...NORTHWESTERN NATCHITOCHES...SOUTHEASTERN CADDO...SOUTHWESTERN
BIENVILLE...SOUTHERN BOSSIER AND NORTH CENTRAL SABINE PARISHES UNTIL
615 PM CDT...

At 534 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 15 miles southwest of Ringgold to 8 miles
southeast of Mansfield to Converse. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Coushatta, Ringgold, Converse, Allen, Oak Grove, Pleasant Hill,
Martin, Hall Summit, Ashland, Castor, Edgefield, Powhatan, Lake End,
Grand Bayou, Hanna, Loggy Bayou, Ninock, Pelican, Crichton and
Armistead.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3232 9318 3214 9315 3195 9315 3175 9325
      3176 9380 3198 9363 3230 9359
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 275DEG 23KT 3223 9353 3198 9356 3177 9372

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
611 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

LAZ011>013-018-019-260000-
Winn LA-Bienville LA-Natchitoches LA-Red River LA-Jackson LA-
611 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON...EASTERN
RED RIVER...NORTHERN NATCHITOCHES...SOUTHEASTERN BIENVILLE AND
NORTHWESTERN WINN PARISHES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 611 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Ringgold to 6 miles east of Coushatta to
14 miles north of Many. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Natchitoches, Campti, Allen, Martin, Clarence, Goldonna, Saline,
Lucky, Ashland, Castor, Powhatan, Grand Ecore, Friendship, Black
Lake, Chestnut, Clear Lake, Creston and St. Maurice.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3229 9275 3201 9276 3175 9295 3176 9338
      3202 9319 3232 9322
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 269DEG 23KT 3229 9326 3202 9324 3177 9344

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
612 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

LAZ004>006-012>014-260000-
Bienville LA-Lincoln LA-Ouachita LA-Union LA-Claiborne LA-Jackson LA-
612 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN JACKSON...UNION...
WESTERN OUACHITA...EAST CENTRAL CLAIBORNE...EAST CENTRAL BIENVILLE
AND LINCOLN PARISHES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 611 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Bernice to near Ruston to 10 miles
northwest of Jonesboro. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Ruston, Claiborne, West Monroe, Grambling, Brownsville-Bawcomville,
Farmerville, Bernice, Sterlington, Cooley, Dubach, Choudrant,
Simsboro, Marion, Chatham, Vienna, Quitman, Eros, Downsville, Drew
and D Arbonne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3273 9207 3270 9205 3228 9229 3231 9295
      3255 9285 3288 9278 3300 9207 3298 9208
      3297 9207 3297 9208 3292 9207 3287 9208
      3284 9206 3283 9207 3280 9205 3276 9206
      3274 9205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 241DEG 29KT 3285 9270 3256 9265 3233 9284

04

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
613 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

LAZ017-018-TXZ167-260000-
Natchitoches LA-Sabine LA-Sabine TX-
613 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN NATCHITOCHES...
EASTERN SABINE PARISHES IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN
SABINE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 612 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles northeast of Many to 7 miles northwest
of Hornbeck to near Mayflower. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Natchitoches, Toledo Bend Dam, Many, Florien, Provencal, Natchez,
Fisher, Robeline, Kisatchie, Melrose, Mount Carmel, Bellwood, St.
Maurice, Flora, Bermuda, Gorum, Marthaville, Hagewood and
Cloutierville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3117 9367 3139 9354 3175 9345 3175 9297
      3168 9297 3167 9293 3141 9293 3135 9297
      3137 9303 3136 9339 3128 9344 3128 9353
      3124 9356 3123 9354 3118 9355 3117 9358
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 268DEG 25KT 3175 9338 3140 9349 3106 9370

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
617 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     FLOOD            LUFKIN                  31.34N 94.73W
05/25/2021                   ANGELINA           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WEST FRANK AVENUE IN FRONT OF CHI ST. LUKE’S
            HEALTH MEMORIAL SHUT DOWN DUE TO FLOODING.
            THE SOUTHBOUND SIDE OF SOUTH FIRST STREET
            NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF DENMAN AVENUE IS
            COMPLETELY UNDER WATER. LUFKIN PD.

&&

25