Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
338 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

A unstable airmass is in place across the region this afternoon.
South winds were continuing to bring moisture into the area from
the Gulf of Mexico on unobstructed flow. A stalled/stationary
front was stretched out across eastern Kansas and across west
central and central Missouri.

This stalled front is currently the focus for storm development
with strong to severe storms ongoing along the boundary. Strong to
severe storms may develop southward from the ongoing convection and
slide southward into the Ozarks this evening and into tonight.
With ample lift and CAPE available storms that do become severe
would be capable of producing hail to the size of half dollars and
damaging wind gusts to 60 mph.

The stalled front is expected to sag south slightly tonight into
overnight. As this occurs, storms will continue to develop moving
along the front and spread southward into the region. A Flash
Flood Watch has been issued for the 7pm to 7am period. Rainfall
amounts from 2-3 inches are expected with locally higher amounts
possible.

As most of the region will remain south of the stalled front,
overnight lows will remain rather warm. Some locations may only
cool into the middle 70s. For some locations this may be near
record high low temperatures.

Rain and storms will continue into and through most of the day
Saturday as the stalled front remains in place and the upper level
pattern changes very little. With the extensive cloud cover
expected, temperatures will only climb into the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

The overall upper level and surface pattern will change little
Sunday and into the middle of next week. This will allow for
showers and thunderstorms to continue through Wednesday or
Thursday. Through the week, rainfall from 2 to 5 inches will be
possible with daily totals around in inch with locally higher
amounts.

Cloud cover an rain will help keep temperatures in check through
next week. In general, temperatures will be around 80 to the
middle 80s, or about 10 degrees below normal for this time of
year.

High pressure and dry weather may come late next week into next
weekend but that remains a week away.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Cloud cover across the region will remain VFR except where showers
or isolated storms develop. Expectations are for Storm development
north of the areas terminals this evening into the overnight
hours. Through this evening, a few showers may occur but will be
isolated at best.

Cloud cover is expected to increase tonight with showers and
storms moving south into the Joplin and Springfield areas after
midnight. As this occurs MVFR ceilings will move into those
terminal areas with showers and storms. Where rain does occur,
visibilities may be affected as well.

Surface winds will be gusty but remain out of the south this
afternoon and again by late morning on Saturday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Saturday
     morning for MOZ055>058-066>069-077>080-088-089.

KS...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Saturday
     morning for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
307 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-262015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
307 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated flooding risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited Excessive Heat Risk.

DISCUSSION...

Heat indicies this afternoon will be near 100 for some locations
across the Ozarks. Especially where the sun can break through the
clouds.

Thunderstorms continue to develop across eastern Kansas and west
central Missouri along a stalled front into this evening and
through the overnight. This activity will then track slowly
southeast deeper into the Ozarks region.

Some storms could become strong to severe and produce large hail
up to the size of half dollars and wind gusts to 60 mph.

Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts
are expected. High hourly rainfall rates, with some storms could
also lead to localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Several chances for thunderstorms will occur from Saturday
through Thursday. A stationary frontal boundary is expected to
linger across the region for an extended period of time, becoming
a focus for rain and thunder. Severe weather will be possible the
next few days, while repeated rainfall could lead to areas of
flooding into next work week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed later today or tonight for areas
 mainly along and north of Interstate 44.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Hatch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
544 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

MOZ055-252315-
Benton MO-
544 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BENTON COUNTY UNTIL 615
PM CDT...

At 543 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lincoln, or 13 miles southeast of Windsor, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lincoln...                        Cole Camp...
Crockerville...                   Mora...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
central Missouri. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in effect
until 1100 PM CDT for central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3853 9307 3835 9307 3835 9308 3833 9308
      3838 9343 3851 9342 3851 9330 3854 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 271DEG 22KT 3845 9329

Schaumann