River Flood Watch 8, NWS Springfield, MO

221 
WGUS63 KSGF 252155
FFASGF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Springfield MO
455 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...The Flood Watch is replaced with a River Flood Warning for the 
following rivers in Kansas...

  Little Osage River at Fulton affecting Bourbon County.

KSZ073-252300-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FL.A.0008.210627T0115Z-210625T2155Z/
/FTNK1.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
455 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

The Flood Watch is cancelled for
  the Little Osage River at Fulton
  and has been replaced with a Flood Warning.

* At 4:15 PM CDT Friday the stage was 3.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...Flood stage may be reached tomorrow evening.


&&

LAT...LON 3798 9462 3799 9466 3799 9471 3801 9474
      3801 9475 3803 9475 3802 9471 3801 9465
      3800 9462

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
614 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

It was a very warm and humid night across extreme southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were in the 70s underneath
mostly cloudy skies and southerly breezes.

An upper level dirty ridge was over the region, keeping convection
up across the Interstate 70 corridor. The 00z RAOB suggested that
a stubborn mid level inhibition layer held strong last night,
likely mitigating convection across the Ozarks.

This will change however, with more widespread convection
penetrating the Ozarks by this evening and overnight tonight.
There may be a limited risk for an organized storm or two this
evening, although the cape and shear combination may struggle to
coincide for anything too impactful.

With upscale propagation possible tonight, there will also be a
chance for some flash flooding. The signal for flooding is not
clear cut at this time, however, it's sufficient enough to mention
in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Heat and humidity will be the other item we mention in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook. Heat index values exceeding 100 degrees
will be common this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

Convection should be ongoing Saturday morning as outflow pushes
deep into southern Missouri. Most locations are likely to receive
precipitation tonight into Saturday morning. Far south central
Missouri may have lesser chances at rain.

Westerly flow will spread over the region while a stationary front
sets up underneath it. This pattern looks to remain in place for
several days, bringing intermittent showers and thunderstorms
through the weekend and into next work week.

Cooler temperatures will result from the cloud cover and
precipitation next work week with highs in the low 80s on an
afternoon basis.  Lows will drop into the 60s.

There will also be chances for organized thunderstorms, depending
on localized areas of destabilization. The wet and cool pattern
doesn't look to break until the seven day forecast is over. With
repeated chances for convection on a daily basis, it's possible
flooding could become an issue at some point. Antecedent
conditions are very dry and streamflows are low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports may
want to keep an eye on radar trends today. Showers and
thunderstorms should remain north of the TAF sites until tonight,
however, it's not entirly impossible for something to develop
further south today.

Look for winds to be breezy and from the southwest later this
evening.

Thunderstorms will impact the TAF sites late tonight and into
Saturday morning. Flight conditions should end up lower when that
happens.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Cramer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
351 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-260900-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
351 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

A few non severe thunderstorms will be possible this morning,
particularly over central and south central Missouri.

Temperatures will warm into the 90s again today. These
temperatures combined with humidity levels will cause heat index
values to exceed 100 degrees in many areas this afternoon.

Additional thunderstorms will then evolve late this afternoon and
into the early evening hours across eastern Kansas and west
central Missouri. This activity will then track southeast deeper
into the Ozarks region. A few of these storms could produce large
hail up to the size of quarters and wind gusts to 60 mph. High
rainfall rates with these storms could also lead to localized
flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Several chances for thunderstorms will occur from Saturday through
Thursday. A stationary frontal boundary is expected to linger
across the region for an extended period of time, becoming a focus
for rain and thunder. Severe weather will be possible the next
few days, while repeated rainfall could lead to areas of flooding
into next work week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later today or tonight for
for locations north of Interstate 44.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Cramer