Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
310 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The remains of Tropical Storm Fred will track slowly north
through the southern Appalachians through early Wednesday.
Once Fred moves by Wednesday afternoon, look for a return to
typical August weather to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday...

Expanded the flash flood watch northward along and west of the
Blue ridge mountains to capture the heavier rains expected
tonight into Wednesday.

previous discussion
As of 216 PM EDT Tuesday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into
Wednesday. Some of the storms could be strong to severe
this afternoon into tonight.

Tornado Watch 445 remains in effect this afternoon.
Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for our far southwest
forecast area, including the NC mountains/foothills up the Blue
Ridge to Floyd, and across the Mountain Empire of SW VA.

The remnants of Fred will lift north this afternoon into
Wednesday afternoon. See the latest WPC advisory on Fred for
details. A southerly flow of tropical moisture will generated
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight.
Some of the storms will contain locally heavy rains. PWATs of
1.64 inch on rnk 12z sounding highlighted the deep moisture. The
environment will be very favorable for efficient warm cloud
processes. The flash flood watch may need to be expanded further
north depending on speed/locations of deeper convection.

The severe threat continues this afternoon into tonight as the
remnants of Fred will eject northeastward across the
Appalachians. Supercells are possible within/ahead of the main
spiral bands. The highest rainfall potential per models will
occur across the western mountains tonight into early
Wednesday.

Models are in close agreement in terms of moving Fred out of here by
Wednesday afternoon, but will likely see residual instability per
clearing and plenty of low level moisture to keep threat of
showers/storms around into Wednesday afternoon, though think
coverage will become more scattered. Under cloudy skies, low
temperatures tonight into Wednesday morning will range from the
lows 60s in the west to the lower 70s in the east.

High temperatures Wednesday will warm with the south to
southwest flow and increasing sunshine behind Fred. Scattered
convection may hold temperatures down. High temperatures
Wednesday will vary from the mid 70s to around 80 degrees in the
west, to the mid 80s in the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday...

An upper level trough will track eastward over the Great Lakes,
which should bring more chances of showers and thunderstorms.

As the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred head toward the Northeast
during Wednesday night and Thursday, the prolonged rainfall chances
should begin to diminish. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will
spread eastward from the Great Lakes on Thursday and reach western
Pennsylvania by Friday. This feature should promote more typical
diurnal convection with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
both afternoons of Thursday and Friday.

Although the rainfall rates will not be as efficient due to the
tropical moisture from Fred exiting the Mid Atlantic, there could
still be hydrological concerns from any strong thunderstorms given
the wet soil conditions and the noteworthy rainfall over the past
several days. Confidence is highest along and west of the Blue Ridge
for the formation of convection, but the activity may spread
eastward into the Piedmont. Temperatures should trend slightly
cooler for Friday and Friday night due to the proximity of the upper
level trough.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday...

After the upper level trough influences the Mid Atlantic weather
this weekend, ridging will take place to bring warmer conditions.

An upper level trough should pass over Pennsylvania during Saturday
and exit off the New Jersey coast by Sunday. The close proximity of
this trough should continue the daily threat of afternoon showers
and thunderstorms for this weekend. Temperatures should begin to
increase a little by Sunday and Monday as a broad upper level ridge
over the lower Mississippi River Valley begins to nudge the heights
aloft upward across the Appalachian Mountains. Another upper level
trough passing over eastern Canada by Tuesday should slow the
progression of the expanding ridge across the Mid Atlantic. Chances
of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue but may become
more confined to locations along and west of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 143 PM EDT Tuesday...

High confidence forecast for poor flying conditions for most of
the taf period, but lower confidence on timing of lower vs
higher cigs/vsbys.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms with lower cigs/vsbys will
move north across the region this afternoon into tonight.
Cigs/vsbys will fall at times to IFR or lower at most taf sites.
Some of the storms will be strong to severe. Southerly flow
around 10 mph will continue this afternoon into tonight. Winds
will be erratic around thunderstorms. Highest winds will be
across the mountains this afternoon into tonight as the remnants
of Fred move in. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to
move north across the region tonight into Wednesday morning.
Heavier showers/some storms will move out by Wednesday
afternoon, but until then anticipate poor flying weather.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Isolated to scattered MVFR showers are possible Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Thursday into the weekend,
diurnal driven storms are expected with Sub-VFR conditions, but
looks like less coverage, though models vary on this, so
confidence is low beyond Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Fred will likely bring an average of 1 to 2 inches across most of
the area, with highest amounts of 4 to 6 inches possible along the
southern Blue Ridge/Appalachians of TN/NC. Local studies indicate
that 5 inches of rain in 24 hours can lead to landslides, so not out
of the question that areas along/south of the VA/NC border near
Galax/Hillsville/Meadows of Dan to Boone may get this amount of rain.
The speed of the system will make the difference, and how long
southeast flow remains.

Per amounts, and rivers running low, threat of river flooding is low
for now. Main threat will be flash flooding.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-032>035.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for NCZ001>003-018-
     019.
WV...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...KK/WP
HYDROLOGY...WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
321 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ009-012>017-032-033-181930-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Smyth-Wythe-Pulaski-
Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Patrick-Franklin-
321 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
...TORNADO WATCH 445 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, southwest Virginia and west central
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation has occurred. Reports should be submitted by
phone, social media, by email at rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at
www.weather.gov/rnk.

NCZ004-005-020-VAZ043-181930-
Stokes-Rockingham-Yadkin-Henry-
321 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...TORNADO WATCH 445 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding on Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation has occurred. Reports should be submitted by
phone, social media, by email at rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at
www.weather.gov/rnk.

VAZ007-010-011-018>020-022>024-034-035-WVZ042>044-507-508-181930-
Tazewell-Bland-Giles-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Bedford-Amherst-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
321 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone, social media, by email at rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at
www.weather.gov/rnk.

NCZ006-VAZ044>047-058-059-181930-
Caswell-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-
Charlotte-
321 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
central Virginia and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms from the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred
will occur through tonight. Localized flash flooding is possible. In
addition, some storms may become severe with damaging winds and an
isolated tornado as the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding on Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone, social media, by email at rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at
www.weather.gov/rnk.

PW

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
645 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

VAZ024-034-035-045-172330-
Amherst VA-Campbell VA-Bedford VA-Rockbridge VA-
645 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Rockbridge, northeastern Bedford, and southwestern Amherst Counties
and the City of Lynchburg through 730 PM EDT...

At 643 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking clusters of strong
thunderstorms. The strongest thunderstorm was located over
Boonsboro. Other thunderstorms were moving across the City of
Lynchburg. Movement of the thunderstorms was to the north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lynchburg...
Glasgow...
Big Island...
Forest...
Forks Of Buffalo...
Coleman Falls...
and Madison Heights.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM EDT for south central
and west central Virginia.

Additional statements will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

LAT...LON 3737 7907 3732 7922 3739 7934 3768 7946
      3769 7919 3749 7918 3742 7910
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 176DEG 16KT 3748 7929

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DB