Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
528 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is centered over the southeastern United States.
This feature will remain nearly stationary through the remainder
of the week. Southerly wind flow around the high will maintain
a tropical-like airmass over the region...the heat and humidity
contributing to a daily threat for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 515 PM EDT Tuesday...

The main thunderstorm cluster in our area is now northeast of
Buena Vista, Lynchburg, and Altavista, and moving northeast at
about 20 mph. Strong embedded cores continue to pose a wind
damage and hail threat. There is also prolific lightning and
heavy rainfall.

The remaining parts of the forecast area have largely stabilized
as a result of previous convection and associated outflow, with
SPC mesoanalysis showing increasing CIN over west central VA and
western north NC. Deep moist convergence and the best instabilities
are now to our west. Convection will continue to shift northeast
and/or wane with the loss of daytime heating.

It does not look like convection to our west will affect us much
overnight, but there is some short wave energy moving through so
we could see a stray shower/storm reach southeastern WV or
western VA late.

As of 330 PM Tuesday...

Scattered thunderstorms this evening. Muggy overnight.

Forecast reflects scattered showers/storms through sunset before
loss of daytime heating and instability diminishes. Will
maintain at least slight chance threat through the overnight for
the northern and western CWA where upstream deep convection may
be maintained later into the overnight due to effects from the
low level nocturnal jet which will maintain a constant moisture
flux into the OH Valley and into the west side of the
Appalachians.

Overall, expecting similar conditions Wednesday. High pressure
is centered along the southeast Atlantic Coast. This will
support a pipeline of low level moisture into the eastern half
of the country with surface dewpoints into the 70s, and some
cases near 80! This moisture laden airmass will fuel strong
to severe thunderstorms...something we will have to deal with
for the next several days. Showers and thunderstorms are favored
to form locally along our mountain ridgelines during the peak
heating part of the day, but we will also have to closely
monitor outflow from organized MCSs that develop over Ohio
Valley where wind flow aloft would allow them to move downstream
and into our area (not necessarily captured on any particular
model).

Temperature and humidity wise...expect readings above normal,
especially east of the Blue Ridge across the piedmont where
there will be an opportunity for more sun...daytime high
temperatures into the 90s and heat indices near 100. Highs in
the mountains will not be as oppressive, but still quite warm
with highs in the 80s. With dewpoints in the 70-75 range it will
be uncomfortably muggy.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

Hot and humid with diurnal storms.

Surface high pressure will remain across the western Atlantic
through Friday. Southerly flow around the high center will
result in hot and humid conditions. Diurnally driven scattered
showers and storms will develop in the afternoons and evenings
both Thursday and Friday. The locations with the best chance to
see convection will be in the mountains because of orographic
forcing in addition to a few transient upper shortwaves which
may initiate a more organized MCS or two.

Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through the
short term with highs ranging from the 80s in the mountains
to the lower and mid 90s in the piedmont. The heat indices will
climb into the upper 90s to 100 for a brief period in parts of
the Piedmont region and this has been highlighted in the
hazardous weather outlook. It will also remain warm and muggy at
night...lows ranging from the 60s mountains to the 70s in the
piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

Unsettled weather expected for the weekend and into early next
week.

A slight reprieve for the heat is expected this weekend as a
cold front moves into the region from the northwest. This front
is expected to stall across the region, so the mugginess and
humidity will not necessarily go away. There should be more
cloud cover and showers, so the overall effect will be a
lowering of the daytime high temperatures.

Attm going with generally greater than 50/50 threat for
showers/storms both Saturday and Sunday. Depending on where the
front stalls, some areas may see more or less with respect to
the overall coverage, but at least for now, it is looking
somewhat promising for wetting showers.

As we transition into next week, focus will be on the tropics
and whether the feature currently developing over Puerto Rico
and the Dominican Republic gains enough latitude to introduce
tropical moisture to our part of the CONUS. For now, will
maintain chance threat for showers/storms going into early next
week, but coverage will be highly leveraged by the remnant front
and tropical cyclone.

Please refer to the guidance from NHC regarding the details and
official forecast track of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through sunset
associated with 15-25kt outflow gusts. Some of the stronger
cells may have surface gusts closer to 35 kts. Maintain VCTS at
most TAF sites with greater than 50 percent probability
there will be up to an hour impact attms through 00Z/8PM.

After sunset, loss of daytime heating should result in gradual
demise of the activity, however, do anticipate for nocturnal
deep convection to continue for areas north and west of the area
due to lingering instability over the OH/TN Valleys.

Depending on where it rains, IFR to MVFR fog may develop.
Highest confidence for fog and reduced visibilities and
ceilings is the Greenbrier and New River Valleys, with potential
impacts to KLWB and KBCB.

Forecast confidence good.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Much of the week will feature more of a typical August weather
pattern with heat and humidity leading to scattered afternoon
and evening storms, especially across the mountains. At night,
the convection will dissipate as fog and low clouds develop with
a focus on areas that received rainfall the evening before
and/or river valleys/rural areas. Chances of rain ramp up a bit
toward the weekend as a front moves close.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/SH
SHORT TERM...KK/PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PM

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