Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1035 AM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north of the area today leaving the
region under a very warm, humid airmass that will likely
persist through much of the upcoming week. Expect daily chances
for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1020 AM EDT Sunday...

Stratus banked up against the higher terrain is gradually
turning into stratocumulus with heating ongoing. A few cells
have popped up south of Danville, but so far have not produced
lightning. Expect an increase in clouds and then showers and
thunderstorms through the day and evening. The western half of
the forecast area is closer to a theta-e axis and is the area
most likely to be affected. CAM models are trying to depict a
couple broken lines of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
moving in from the west. Earlier today we will see more airmass/
pop-up convection across the area. Other than the convection,
it will be another hot and humid day.

As of 445 AM EDT Sunday...

     Very Warm and Humid with Scattered Afternoon and Evening
Showers and Thunderstorms...

A warm front/quasi-stationary boundary extends from the central
Mid-Atlantic into the western Ohio Valley. This front will lift
north today leaving the forecast area with very moist
conditions...dewpoints around 70. Daytime heating combined with
the abundant moisture will result in scattered showers/storms
for both the afternoon and evening. MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/KG
will fuel isolated strong storms with marginal risk for severe
wind. Increasing dewpoints and PWATs in excess of 1.50 will
increase rain efficiency, so marginal risk for excessive
rainfall is also possible. Based on the position of the warm
front, a greater threat for severe wx and excessive rainfall is
expected northwest of our CWA where warm front will allow for
better pooling of moisture and focus for directional shear vcnty
of the front from OH/KY into western WV/PA. Something to watch
is whether any of the outflow from this organized activity moves
downstream. Until better trends are established, will maintain
chance pops areawide, skewed higher across the western/northern
CWA, proximity of the better dynamic and thermodynamic support.

Loss of daytime heating is expected to result in a demise of the
thunderstorm activity tonight. If there is anything that lingers
past midnight it would have to come from upstream outflow
boundaries as the warm front will have moved well north of the
forecast area by that time. Given the airmass that we are in,
much of the solar insolation today will go into latent heating,
high temperatures topping out in the 80s areawide, maybe 90 in
the urban areas of ROA/LYH/DAN. Lows tonight will be supported
by higher dewpoints, thus looking at T-mins fairly close to 70
except for the typically cooler mountain valleys. Patchy fog
would also be expected in these relatively cooler drainages such
as the New/Greenbrier/Upper James.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...

   Persistent summer pattern...

Upper low opens and lifts into the Great Lakes as the pattern
flattens on Wednesday and Thursday. Region stays in deep southwest
flow through Wednesday night with little change in the warm,
unstable air mass. No synoptic scale features to organize lift, but
daily chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue each day.
Overall coverage of storms will be more on Monday than on Tuesday or
Wednesday and will be more in the mountains than in the piedmont
on any given day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...

   Thunderstorm chances go up next weekend...

Typical diurnal pattern with thunderstorms each afternoon and
evening continues Thursday and Friday. The next cold front is
forecast to come through the eastern United States Saturday or
Sunday. Baroclinic zone and upper trough shift to the south focusing
moisture and lift ahead of the front. High temperatures will be near
normal through the period. Low temperatures will be just above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1000 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions at most TAF sites, with stratus hanging on in
LWB, and more stratocumulus banked against the higher terrain.
VFR cloud cover is also noted near Danville and to the SE.
Cloud will continue to increase with more cumulus popping up and
eventually growing into cumulonimbus for the afternoon with
scattered afternoon and evening shra/TSRA. Lack of organization
suggests low confidence with respect to timing at any given
terminal. Thus will rely on VCTS as dominant wx for the
afternoon and evening and will amend as needed when confidence
increases with respect to timing. However BLF, LWB, BCB and
perhaps ROA are more likely to see this activity. The mean wind
forecast is from 215 at 15 kts, so expect general thunderstorm
cell movement from the southwest to northeast this afternoon.
Away from any thunderstorm activity, expect VFR.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms look to
continue for the Monday through Friday timeframe. Thunderstorm
activity will mainly be confined to the mountains Monday through
Wednesday as ridging and subsidence aloft starts to build from
the southeast. Better chances for storms arrive Thursday and
FRiday as our next front nears the area.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/SH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
459 AM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

NCZ004>006-020-120900-
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Yadkin-
459 AM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina
and northwest North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ003-019-VAZ014-016-017-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-120900-
Surry-Wilkes-Montgomery-Carroll-Floyd-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
459 AM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a marginal risk for severe storms this afternoon and
evening. The primary threat is damaging wind.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>013-015-018>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-120900-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-
Grayson-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
459 AM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a marginal risk for severe storms this afternoon and
evening. The primary threats are damaging wind and excessive
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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