Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
832 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A complex low pressure system will keep a front over the region
through Friday. Another low continues the chance of showers
through Sunday. Dry weather is expected behind this system for
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 820 PM EDT Thursday...

Thunderstorms have manage to take advantage of the instability
provided by today's heating ahead of the shortwave slipping
across the region: surface CAPE of the evening sounding was
~1000 j/kg, so no shock that we are getting some thunder and
lightning: that instability combined by the weak shear has
allowed for some isolated cells to produce some hail.

Will continue to monitor the showers and storms as they slip
across the area: generally expecting things to continue to
remain mostly quiet, though the HRRR is wanting to slightly
organize the line as it skips northeast past Lynchburg as it
slips into Sterling's coverage area.

Following the rain, wedge conditions start to build into the
region, coating the area in areas of fog and low clouds
generally in the foothills and Piedmont, into the Southern
Shenadoah and New River Valley.

Previous Discussion...
As of 150 PM EDT Thursday...

As we head through the afternoon, a shortwave/vort tracks into
the mountains, with upper divergence increasing to the
northeast. High- res models still highlight best shower chances
in a corridor from the Alleghanys of Virginia, southeast into
the piedmont of VA. MLCAPEs of 400-700 J/Kg may be enough to
allow for some thunderstorms. Otherwise, rest of the CWA will
see isolated to scattered showers this afternoon, with lowest
threat across the NC piedmont into the foothills

Tonight, will see shallow wedge hold firm across the piedmont while
rest of the area will stay on the warm side of the front. Tail end
of vort will keep threat of showers high this evening along/north of
a BKW-LYH line, then should see some drying at least south of this
line overnight, which in agreement of the Euro/NAM solution. Could
see some drizzle/fog across the foothills/piedmont of VA outside the
showers, but the wedge overall does not look that strong. Lows in
the 50s most areas tonight.

Friday will see another scattering of showers/storms as another
shortwave pivots across the area, with best chance along/east of the
Blue Ridge. Temperatures overall are dependent on wedge/cloud cover
and showers, but leaned toward cooler MET. Still warm with mid to
upper 60s from Lewisburg-Roanoke-Lynchburg north, to lower to mid
70s south.

Forecast confidence high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM EDT Thursday...

Showery and isolated thunderstorms while warm weather continues...

Backdoor front will have partially eroded the wedge by Friday night.
Overnight showers will be less numerous before a cold front
approaches Saturday night, and because of the lack of insolation to
help instability, don't expect any thunder after sundown. Showers
and storms pick up again Saturday afternoon. With the wedge eroded
and the best forcing of the weekend from the front, have isolated
thunder in the forecast for most of the area through Saturday
afternoon and evening. Rain persists through the night into early
Sunday morning, expecting this to be the period of heaviest rain. Up
to three-quarters of an inch in our northernmost counties around
Bath.

On Sunday after the front has passed, may have some lingering precip
before the closed low moves far enough north, which should be late
Sunday. Skies will also start to clear after an overcast weekend.
Despite the cloudiness, temperatures over the weekend will be still
be above normal for the time of year. Daily highs across the
forecast area will be in the high 60s or 70s this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Generally dry early, then an increasing chance for showers along
with a cooling trend later next week.

Ensemble guidance is consistent with indicating shallow ridging
aloft with a flat closed low spinning over the Great Lakes gradually
gaining some amplitude toward the latter portion of next week.
While this pattern will not favor any significant weather for the
Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region, it may not be
completely dry as some weak short waves cross the region especially
as the upper low starts to amplify later in the week. Cooler air
will steadily filter in from the northwest though since we will be
starting off the week above normal expect the cooldown will only
bring us closer to seasonal normals for mid April.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 830 PM EDT Thursday...

Scattered showers and storms continue to press through the area
this evening, bringing brief moments of sub vfr ceilings and
visibilities, as well as some lightning. This wave is expected
to continue to press northeast over the next few hours.

Following the rain comes wedge conditions that will produce
very poor flight conditions in the east, impacting LYH and DAN.
Likewise, confidence has increased in that these wedge
conditions look to also impact BCB and ROA. BLF due to its
proximity away from the BLue Ridge looks to make it through the
night fairly well. LWB still remains of question, but given the
precipitation it has received there this evening, confidence
has risen enough to put fog in for tonight.

Tomorrow will see flight conditions gradually improving for TAF
sites near and east of the Blue Ridge. Following the improving
conditions will be yet another possible wave that could impact
flight conditions in the late afternoon, but high- res guidance
remains variable on how much/when these would impact sites so
any mention of showers/storms have been left out of TAFs at this
time.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

The next round of more widespread sub-VFR conditions arrive
Friday night into Saturday with a frontal boundary and
showers/storms. These conditions may linger into the first half
of Sunday before improving conditions through early next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...RR/WP
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/RR/WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
937 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>017-022-032-033-043-044-058-WVZ042>044-
507-508-100145-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Roanoke-Patrick-Franklin-Henry-Pittsylvania-Halifax-
Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
937 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, south central Virginia, southwest
Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ018>020-023-024-034-035-045>047-059-100145-
Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Bedford-Amherst-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Charlotte-
937 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia, southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Continued thunderstorm activity expected early tonight with some
storms currently producing hail and frequent lightning. Activity
will start to diminish after 10 PM. Localized flooding could also be
a threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1008 PM EDT THU APR 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 PM     HAIL             3 SW LYNCHBURG CITY     37.38N 79.19W
04/08/2021  M0.50 INCH       CITY OF LYNCHBURG  VA   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1014 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021

VAZ044-045-058-090315-
Halifax-Campbell-Pittsylvania-
1014 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
CAMPBELL...NORTHEASTERN PITTSYLVANIA AND NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX
COUNTIES...

At 1013 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Altavista to Ingram. Movement was
northeast at 20 mph.

Pea size hail is possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Altavista...
Halifax...
Hurt...
Brookneal...
Clover...
Ingram...
and Mt Airy.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3672 7922 3718 7937 3729 7894 3726 7892
      3725 7892 3725 7889 3715 7885 3702 7890
      3700 7889 3698 7890 3698 7889 3699 7888
      3698 7882 3695 7879 3696 7877 3697 7877
      3681 7871
TIME...MOT...LOC 0213Z 246DEG 17KT 3714 7927 3674 7915

RAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1027 PM EDT THU APR 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     HAIL             1 NNE LYNCHBURG AIRPORT 37.35N 79.19W
04/08/2021  E1.00 INCH       CITY OF LYNCHBURG  VA   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1030 PM EDT THU APR 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     HAIL             2 NNE LYNCHBURG AIRPORT 37.36N 79.18W
04/08/2021  E1.00 INCH       CITY OF LYNCHBURG  VA   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1044 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021

VAZ047-090315-
Buckingham-
1044 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BUCKINGHAM COUNTY...

At 1044 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Wingina, or 7
miles northwest of Buckingham, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Buckingham...
Dillwyn...
Wingina...
and Centenary.

Pea sized hail and brief heavy rainfall can be expected with this storm.

LAT...LON 3756 7837 3749 7870 3764 7878 3763 7874
      3764 7872 3767 7872 3768 7869 3770 7869
      3768 7866 3768 7864 3771 7865 3774 7863
      3776 7861 3775 7858 3776 7855 3776 7851
      3777 7850 3779 7850
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 245DEG 12KT 3761 7867

RAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1155 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021

VAZ034-035-045-090430-
Amherst-Campbell-Bedford-
1155 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CAMPBELL...EAST CENTRAL
BEDFORD...AND SOUTH CENTRAL AMHERST COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF
LYNCHBURG...

At 1154 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Evington,
moving north at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lynchburg...
Forest...
Evington...
Rustburg...
Madison Heights...
Boonsboro...
and Timberlake.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3715 7915 3719 7936 3750 7928 3742 7901
      3737 7898
TIME...MOT...LOC 0354Z 199DEG 18KT 3722 7923

BMG