Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
832 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A complex low pressure system will keep a front over the region
through Friday. Another low continues the chance of showers
through Sunday. Dry weather is expected behind this system for
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 820 PM EDT Thursday...

Thunderstorms have manage to take advantage of the instability
provided by today's heating ahead of the shortwave slipping
across the region: surface CAPE of the evening sounding was
~1000 j/kg, so no shock that we are getting some thunder and
lightning: that instability combined by the weak shear has
allowed for some isolated cells to produce some hail.

Will continue to monitor the showers and storms as they slip
across the area: generally expecting things to continue to
remain mostly quiet, though the HRRR is wanting to slightly
organize the line as it skips northeast past Lynchburg as it
slips into Sterling's coverage area.

Following the rain, wedge conditions start to build into the
region, coating the area in areas of fog and low clouds
generally in the foothills and Piedmont, into the Southern
Shenadoah and New River Valley.

Previous Discussion...
As of 150 PM EDT Thursday...

As we head through the afternoon, a shortwave/vort tracks into
the mountains, with upper divergence increasing to the
northeast. High- res models still highlight best shower chances
in a corridor from the Alleghanys of Virginia, southeast into
the piedmont of VA. MLCAPEs of 400-700 J/Kg may be enough to
allow for some thunderstorms. Otherwise, rest of the CWA will
see isolated to scattered showers this afternoon, with lowest
threat across the NC piedmont into the foothills

Tonight, will see shallow wedge hold firm across the piedmont while
rest of the area will stay on the warm side of the front. Tail end
of vort will keep threat of showers high this evening along/north of
a BKW-LYH line, then should see some drying at least south of this
line overnight, which in agreement of the Euro/NAM solution. Could
see some drizzle/fog across the foothills/piedmont of VA outside the
showers, but the wedge overall does not look that strong. Lows in
the 50s most areas tonight.

Friday will see another scattering of showers/storms as another
shortwave pivots across the area, with best chance along/east of the
Blue Ridge. Temperatures overall are dependent on wedge/cloud cover
and showers, but leaned toward cooler MET. Still warm with mid to
upper 60s from Lewisburg-Roanoke-Lynchburg north, to lower to mid
70s south.

Forecast confidence high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM EDT Thursday...

Showery and isolated thunderstorms while warm weather continues...

Backdoor front will have partially eroded the wedge by Friday night.
Overnight showers will be less numerous before a cold front
approaches Saturday night, and because of the lack of insolation to
help instability, don't expect any thunder after sundown. Showers
and storms pick up again Saturday afternoon. With the wedge eroded
and the best forcing of the weekend from the front, have isolated
thunder in the forecast for most of the area through Saturday
afternoon and evening. Rain persists through the night into early
Sunday morning, expecting this to be the period of heaviest rain. Up
to three-quarters of an inch in our northernmost counties around
Bath.

On Sunday after the front has passed, may have some lingering precip
before the closed low moves far enough north, which should be late
Sunday. Skies will also start to clear after an overcast weekend.
Despite the cloudiness, temperatures over the weekend will be still
be above normal for the time of year. Daily highs across the
forecast area will be in the high 60s or 70s this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Generally dry early, then an increasing chance for showers along
with a cooling trend later next week.

Ensemble guidance is consistent with indicating shallow ridging
aloft with a flat closed low spinning over the Great Lakes gradually
gaining some amplitude toward the latter portion of next week.
While this pattern will not favor any significant weather for the
Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region, it may not be
completely dry as some weak short waves cross the region especially
as the upper low starts to amplify later in the week. Cooler air
will steadily filter in from the northwest though since we will be
starting off the week above normal expect the cooldown will only
bring us closer to seasonal normals for mid April.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 830 PM EDT Thursday...

Scattered showers and storms continue to press through the area
this evening, bringing brief moments of sub vfr ceilings and
visibilities, as well as some lightning. This wave is expected
to continue to press northeast over the next few hours.

Following the rain comes wedge conditions that will produce
very poor flight conditions in the east, impacting LYH and DAN.
Likewise, confidence has increased in that these wedge
conditions look to also impact BCB and ROA. BLF due to its
proximity away from the BLue Ridge looks to make it through the
night fairly well. LWB still remains of question, but given the
precipitation it has received there this evening, confidence
has risen enough to put fog in for tonight.

Tomorrow will see flight conditions gradually improving for TAF
sites near and east of the Blue Ridge. Following the improving
conditions will be yet another possible wave that could impact
flight conditions in the late afternoon, but high- res guidance
remains variable on how much/when these would impact sites so
any mention of showers/storms have been left out of TAFs at this
time.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

The next round of more widespread sub-VFR conditions arrive
Friday night into Saturday with a frontal boundary and
showers/storms. These conditions may linger into the first half
of Sunday before improving conditions through early next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...RR/WP
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/RR/WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
937 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>017-022-032-033-043-044-058-WVZ042>044-
507-508-100145-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Roanoke-Patrick-Franklin-Henry-Pittsylvania-Halifax-
Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
937 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, south central Virginia, southwest
Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ018>020-023-024-034-035-045>047-059-100145-
Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Bedford-Amherst-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Charlotte-
937 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia, southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Continued thunderstorm activity expected early tonight with some
storms currently producing hail and frequent lightning. Activity
will start to diminish after 10 PM. Localized flooding could also be
a threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
838 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021

VAZ045-090115-
Campbell-
838 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CAMPBELL COUNTY...

At 837 PM EDT, Strong thunderstorm were located over Gladys, or 8
miles south of Rustburg, moving northeast at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Evington...
Rustburg...
Hodges...
Gladys...
Long Island...
and Timberlake.

Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3708 7911 3709 7912 3709 7913 3708 7914
      3718 7935 3734 7923 3723 7897
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 211DEG 5KT 3716 7912

RAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
847 PM EDT THU APR 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             2 ENE ORISKANY          37.63N 79.95W
04/08/2021  E0.70 INCH       BOTETOURT          VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL FELL FROM 800 PM TO 802 PM
            EDT.

&&

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
906 PM EDT THU APR 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             2 SSW LYNCHBURG AIRPORT 37.31N 79.21W
04/08/2021  E1.00 INCH       CAMPBELL           VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
915 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021

VAZ018>020-023-090245-
Botetourt-Bath-Craig-Alleghany-
915 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
ALLEGHANY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EASTERN
CRAIG COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...BATH AND WESTERN BOTETOURT
COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE CITY OF COVINGTON...

At 912 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall extended
from Mountain Grove to Covington to Hollins.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm. Very heavy rainfall and frequent lightning can also be expected.

Locations impacted include...
Covington...
Clifton Forge...
Warm Springs...
Millboro...
Eagle Rock...
Jordan Mines...
and Oriskany.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3809 7949 3795 7958 3793 7961 3787 7965
      3787 7964 3742 7994 3756 8021 3820 7977
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 186DEG 8KT 3775 7992

RAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
938 PM EDT THU APR 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             2 NE LYNCHBURG AIRPORT  37.35N 79.18W
04/08/2021  E0.50 INCH       CITY OF LYNCHBURG  VA   PUBLIC

            INTERNET REPORT. HAIL RANGED FROM 0.25 TO
            0.50 INCH.

&&

DS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
940 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021

VAZ023-034-044-045-090245-
Botetourt-Campbell-Bedford-Pittsylvania-
940 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
SOUTHWESTERN CAMPBELL...NORTHWESTERN PITTSYLVANIA...BEDFORD AND
CENTRAL BOTETOURT COUNTIES...

At 938 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms extended from Hollins to
Smith Mountain Lake State Park and Moneta to Huddleston, moving
north at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms along with
pea to dime-sized hail.

Locations impacted include...
Bedford...
Altavista...
Hurt...
Buchanan...
Huddleston...
Montvale...
and Moneta.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3769 7967 3766 7968 3761 7960 3707 7923
      3691 7954 3701 7960 3705 7959 3708 7962
      3709 7961 3716 7970 3755 7995 3772 7969
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 184DEG 34KT 3713 7958

RAB