Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
248 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues through the weekend as a cold front
moves through. A weak disturbance will affect the area by
midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 1125 AM Friday...

Quiet morning across the region with just an isolated shower
across the far northern portion of the region earlier. Cumulus
field is starting to blossom across portions of the area, but
mostly sunny to sunny skies still prevail across most of the
area. Slightly lowered the high temperatures for today, and
adjusted the hourly grids accordingly. Also updated the Sky/PoP
grids over the next several hours to match the current trends.
The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 635 AM Friday...

No changes needed at this time this quiet summer morning.

As of 335 AM Friday...

Surface high pressure beneath ridging aloft this morning give
way to an upper level short wave trough, and associated weak
cold front and low pressure center approaching from the west
this afternoon. This is likely to fire showers and thunderstorms
west of the Ohio River this afternoon and evening. This is
where the greatest instability, perhaps 3 KJ/kg or better, and
modest shear are forecast, presenting a marginal risk for
damaging wind threat, particularly given an inverted V sounding
below the LCL near h85. With this, a marginal risk for flash
flooding arises there, especially if and where a thunderstorm
hits more than once.

Farther east, thunderstorms will be more of the isolated,
diurnally driven variety.

Convection will tend to die down with the loss of heating
tonight, but, with the aforementioned systems getting closer, a
band or two of weakening showers and thunderstorms may make it
eastward across much of the forecast area overnight tonight.

Central guidance actually took temperatures up a tick or two
across the lowlands east of the Ohio River today, with upper 80s
to lower 90s taking peak heat indices into the lower to mid 90s
on dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Another warm and
humid night is depicted ahead of the approaching cold front
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Friday...

By Saturday night, the cold front makes its way into the area
along the northwest. The front is expected to cross the area
throughout the day on Sunday, exiting sometime Sunday night.
There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Sunday
clipping the very southern portion of the area where isolated
water issues could be possible as showers and thunderstorms will
be more focused along the southeastern portion of the area and
along the mountains.

Precipitation chances should begin to decrease gradually
through Sunday night, with drier weather expected to start
Monday as the front is off to the southeast of the area and high
pressure begins to approach. Overall, models are leaning a bit
drier for Monday, however with some moisture lingering in the
area and an upper disturbance passing over the area, chances for
showers and thunderstorms may be possible for the afternoon and
evening.

Sunday's temperatures are expected to be below normal in the
wake of the cold front with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
for the lowlands and mid 60s to mid 70s along the mountains.
Monday will warm up a bit with temperatures in the low to mid
80s for the lowlands and mid 60s to upper 70s for the higher
elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 248 PM Thursday...

Surface high pressure moves in for the week leading to a drier
pattern compared to this weekend. A few isolated diurnal showers
and thunderstorms may be possible each day for the
afternoon/evening, but overall much of the area will remain on
the drier side through Friday. Tuesday and Thursday are
currently expected to be the drier days of the week where high
pressure appears to be more dominate over the area. Wednesday
may have a slightly better chance for showers and thunderstorms
as an upper shortwave trough develops and pushes down into the
area, leading to slightly increased precipitation chances along
the northeastern portion of the area.

Temperatures for the long term period are expected to be around
normal with the lowlands in the mid 80s and upper elevations in
the upper 60s to lower 80s.

By the end of the week, an upper low to the north of the area
is expected to swing down towards the northeastern US, with
models showing the associated trough and potentially a cold
front approaching the area for Friday into next weekend.
However, models are showing a bit of disagreement this far out
with the ECMWF leaning more toward a drier Friday while the GFS
shows a lot more moisture present with better chances for
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 PM Friday...

VFR persists across all terminals currently. After a quiet start
to the day, scattered showers and thunderstorms have formed,
mainly across the western portion of the forecast area.
Activity should for the most part remain across this area, with
VCTS being included in the TAFS for terminals across this region.
Have all terminals remaining VFR through the evening, but brief
IFR/MVFR restrictions will be possible for any terminals
affected by heavier showers or storms.

Shower/storm activity should quiet down for the overnight in
general, although an isolated shower/storm cannot be ruled out.
Some valley fog across the southern portions of the area is
possible, as well as for those areas that receive rainfall,
but currently only have EKN experiencing any restrictions at
this point from fog. Any morning fog should dissipate rather
quickly tomorrow morning, with ceilings gradually lowering
tomorrow morning as a cold front approaches. MVFR, possibly IFR,
restrictions will be possible starting after 10Z tomorrow
morning, with locations further north and west being affected
first, as the front gradually progresses to the southeast.

Winds throughout the period will be light, mainly under
5-10 kts, with a few higher gusts possible, under a general SW
heading.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers/storms this afternoon and evening
could cause brief restrictions, mainly at CRW, HTS, and PKB. Fog
coverage/intensity tonight could differ from the current
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR forecast, but brief IFR possible in
showers/thunderstorms this weekend, mainly during the
afternoons and evenings. Patchy morning fog is also possible
each morning, especially where rain occurs the evening before.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CG/04
NEAR TERM...TRM/04
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
440 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

KYZ101-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-170845-
Greenup-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-
Gallia-Lawrence OH-
440 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Kentucky and southeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible today ahead of a frontal boundary. A
marginal threat for severe thunderstorms exists as well as a
marginal threat for excessive rainfall. The strongest storms will
have the potential to produce strong winds, and heavy downpours which
may lead to isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms are possible from Saturday through the weekend as a
cold front slowly moves through the area. A marginal threat for
excessive rainfall will exist on Saturday. The strongest storms will
have the potential to produce strong winds, and heavy downpours
which may lead to isolated flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-170845-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-
Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-
Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-
Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-
Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-
Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-
Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-
Southeast Randolph-
440 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and much
of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible today ahead of a frontal boundary. The
strongest storms will have the potential to produce strong winds, and
heavy downpours which may lead to isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms are possible from Saturday through the weekend as a
cold front slowly moves through the area. A marginal threat for
severe storms exist for Saturday as well as a marginal threat for
excessive rainfall. The strongest storms will have the potential to
produce strong winds, and heavy downpours which may lead to isolated
flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ102-103-105-170845-
Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-
440 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible today ahead of a frontal boundary. The
strongest storms will have the potential to produce strong winds, and
heavy downpours which may lead to isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms are possible from Saturday through the weekend as a
cold front slowly moves through the area. A marginal threat for
excessive rainfall exists on Saturday. The strongest storms will
have the potential to produce strong winds, and heavy downpours which
may lead to isolated flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
120 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

KYZ101-102-161800-
Greenup-Carter-
120 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN GREENUP AND CARTER
COUNTIES...

At 120 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Triplett, or 8
miles northeast of Morehead, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grayson, Olive Hill, Carter Caves State Park, Gesling, Carter, Grahn,
Soldier, Globe, Hopewell, Brushart, Hitchins and Warnock.

This includes Interstate 64 in Kentucky between mile markers 149 and
176.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3833 8332 3833 8327 3834 8323 3835 8324
      3842 8324 3847 8319 3849 8319 3853 8315
      3859 8304 3832 8281 3821 8308 3827 8318
      3823 8322 3819 8323 3819 8326 3822 8329
      3821 8330 3832 8334
TIME...MOT...LOC 1720Z 233DEG 26KT 3830 8338

ABE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
244 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

OHZ086-087-161915-
Gallia-Lawrence-
244 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN GALLIA AND CENTRAL
LAWRENCE COUNTIES...

At 243 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Lake Vesuvius,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ironton, Lake Vesuvius, Gallia, Vernon, Waterloo, Gage, Pedro and
Centerpoint.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3868 8276 3868 8270 3875 8270 3875 8266
      3885 8265 3884 8258 3885 8257 3885 8245
      3880 8225 3854 8269 3859 8275 3860 8274
      3865 8277
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 226DEG 31KT 3866 8270

ABE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
318 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

OHZ086-WVZ007-014-161945-
Gallia-Mason-Putnam-
318 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GALLIA...NORTHWESTERN
MASON AND NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES...

At 318 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles southwest of
Gallipolis, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Point Pleasant, Gallipolis, Buffalo, Henderson, Cheshire, Gallopolis
Ferry, Gage and Ashton.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3895 8209 3861 8192 3861 8233 3866 8236
      3868 8235 3868 8237 3881 8244
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 251DEG 24KT 3872 8228

14