Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1127 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure departs this morning. Unsettled weather returns
this afternoon through the weekend, as a cold front moves
through. A weak disturbance will affect the area by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1125 AM Friday...

Quiet morning across the region with just an isolated shower
across the far northern portion of the region earlier. Cumulus
field is starting to blossom across portions of the area, but
mostly sunny to sunny skies still prevail across most of the
area. Slightly lowered the high temperatures for today, and
adjusted the hourly grids accordingly. Also updated the Sky/PoP
grids over the next several hours to match the current trends.
The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 635 AM Friday...

No changes needed at this time this quiet summer morning.

As of 335 AM Friday...

Surface high pressure beneath ridging aloft this morning give
way to an upper level short wave trough, and associated weak
cold front and low pressure center approaching from the west
this afternoon. This is likely to fire showers and thunderstorms
west of the Ohio River this afternoon and evening. This is
where the greatest instability, perhaps 3 KJ/kg or better, and
modest shear are forecast, presenting a marginal risk for
damaging wind threat, particularly given an inverted V sounding
below the LCL near h85. With this, a marginal risk for flash
flooding arises there, especially if and where a thunderstorm
hits more than once.

Farther east, thunderstorms will be more of the isolated,
diurnally driven variety.

Convection will tend to die down with the loss of heating
tonight, but, with the aforementioned systems getting closer, a
band or two of weakening showers and thunderstorms may make it
eastward across much of the forecast area overnight tonight.

Central guidance actually took temperatures up a tick or two
across the lowlands east of the Ohio River today, with upper 80s
to lower 90s taking peak heat indices into the lower to mid 90s
on dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Another warm and
humid night is depicted ahead of the approaching cold front
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Friday...

A slow frontal passage takes place on Saturday into Sunday and
model consensus seems to be on track with timing and location.
Accepted the solution from central guidance and only added
slight modifications which equated to likely POPs flaring up
Saturday morning to categorical through the afternoon. Likely
rain showers tapers off in the late evening then chance showers
thereafter into Sunday morning. For Sunday, POPs increase
slightly along the higher elevations and spread into the
lowlands through the afternoon in response to the slow moving
semi-stationary frontal band trying to make its way through the
area.

As the front kicks out early Monday morning precipitation
tapers off providing relief to the area for the rest of Monday,
besides maybe a few isolated diurnal showers and/or storms.
With the lack of shear, not expecting severe storms at this
time, however with anomalously high PWATs, long skinny CAPE and
sufficient low to mid level moisture, excessive rainfall within
storms is a possibility. Not a whole lot of QPF expected,
generally about half inch to an inch during frontal passage,
although we are in a marginal threat for excessive rainfall
which means that any convection could bring about more intense
rainfall and could lead to isolated hydro issues. This could
make low lying and flood prone areas vulnerable to minor
flooding issues if under repeated bouts of heavy rain through
the rest of the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 AM Thursday...

For the extended period, a couple upper level disturbances will
traverse through possibly enhancing the potential for diurnal
showers or storms intermittently through the week. First one,
an upper level short wave dropping down a weak boundary on
Wednesday promoting increased POPs and thunderstorm potential.
The next main feature will be a system possibly bringing a cold
front through on Friday. Long range models are not at all in
agreement with this solution so decided to accept guidance and
left just slight to chance POPs in for the remainder of the
period and kept any thunderstorm potential capped at slight
chances for just Friday afternoon.

Temperatures look average until about Thursday where a slight
warming trend goes into effect where temperatures will exceed
climatological norms by a few degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 635 AM Friday...

Another typical very warm to hot summer day is on tap today,
with a few morning cumulus aoa 3kft in the mountains, otherwise
a VFR midday and afternoon cumulus field even if BKN. Isolated
air mass thunderstorms given humidity and time of year are not
likely to directly impact terminals, although there is a better
chance for thunderstorms west of the Ohio River. VCTS / CB is
included in the TAFs amid the stout building cumulus field this
afternoon.

VFR stratocu is forecast to stick around tonight, with showers
and thunderstorms weakening as they push northeastward across
the middle Ohio Valley, again with probability too low for a
likely direct terminal impact.

Fog is not likely to be a major factor again tonight, unless a
particular site experiences rain late, followed by adequate
breaks in cloud cover.

Surface flow will be light southwest. Aloft, light west flow
early this morning will become light southwest by mid morning.

BKW observations are intermittent long-line, but are available
via ATIS broadcast or dial-in ASOS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A direct thunderstorm impact is possible
at any of the terminals this afternoon or evening, highest at
PKB and then HTS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR forecast, but brief IFR possible in
showers/thunderstorms this weekend, mainly during the
afternoons and evenings. Patchy morning valley fog is also
possible each morning, especially where rain occurs the evening
before.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/04
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...TRM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
440 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

KYZ101-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-170845-
Greenup-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-
Gallia-Lawrence OH-
440 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Kentucky and southeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible today ahead of a frontal boundary. A
marginal threat for severe thunderstorms exists as well as a
marginal threat for excessive rainfall. The strongest storms will
have the potential to produce strong winds, and heavy downpours which
may lead to isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms are possible from Saturday through the weekend as a
cold front slowly moves through the area. A marginal threat for
excessive rainfall will exist on Saturday. The strongest storms will
have the potential to produce strong winds, and heavy downpours
which may lead to isolated flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-170845-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-
Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-
Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-
Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-
Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-
Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-
Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-
Southeast Randolph-
440 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and much
of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible today ahead of a frontal boundary. The
strongest storms will have the potential to produce strong winds, and
heavy downpours which may lead to isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms are possible from Saturday through the weekend as a
cold front slowly moves through the area. A marginal threat for
severe storms exist for Saturday as well as a marginal threat for
excessive rainfall. The strongest storms will have the potential to
produce strong winds, and heavy downpours which may lead to isolated
flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ102-103-105-170845-
Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-
440 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible today ahead of a frontal boundary. The
strongest storms will have the potential to produce strong winds, and
heavy downpours which may lead to isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms are possible from Saturday through the weekend as a
cold front slowly moves through the area. A marginal threat for
excessive rainfall exists on Saturday. The strongest storms will
have the potential to produce strong winds, and heavy downpours which
may lead to isolated flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
120 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

KYZ101-102-161800-
Greenup-Carter-
120 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN GREENUP AND CARTER
COUNTIES...

At 120 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Triplett, or 8
miles northeast of Morehead, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grayson, Olive Hill, Carter Caves State Park, Gesling, Carter, Grahn,
Soldier, Globe, Hopewell, Brushart, Hitchins and Warnock.

This includes Interstate 64 in Kentucky between mile markers 149 and
176.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3833 8332 3833 8327 3834 8323 3835 8324
      3842 8324 3847 8319 3849 8319 3853 8315
      3859 8304 3832 8281 3821 8308 3827 8318
      3823 8322 3819 8323 3819 8326 3822 8329
      3821 8330 3832 8334
TIME...MOT...LOC 1720Z 233DEG 26KT 3830 8338

ABE