Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
347 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through the Piedmont
this afternoon with dry weather overnight into Saturday. A more
typical summer-like pattern is expected from Sunday into next week
with near normal temperatures and afternoon chances of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 208 PM Friday...

Early afternoon water vapor and vis satellite imagery reveal an
approaching longwave trough along the Appalachian Mtns, with a
developing cu field across the central Piedmont. Showers and
thunderstorms have re-developed within the lee trough across western
NC and VA, and have expanded in coverage as they've descended from
the higher terrain into an environment supportive of deep convection.
Latest SPC/RAP mesoanalysis suggests around 1500 J/KG of ML
instability across the region with upwards of 2000 J/KG across the
Sandhills. Surface dewpoints ahead of the approaching trough remain
in the mid 70s in the wake of TS Elsa and while PW's are lower than
they were yesterday, they are still above normal for early July
around 1.7 inches.

Last few runs of the HRRR as well as the 12Z HREF have captured
current convective trends quite well, indicating a broken line of
convection moving through the area between now and 00-02Z with
intensification taking place as the storms move just east of the
Triad into the axis of peak instability. While the overall severe
threat is low (owed primarily to weak deep shear only around 15-
20kts), the strongest storms will be capable of gusty winds that
could approach severe limits. As the convection continues moving
east into the late afternoon, instability will eventually wane with
the loss of daytime heating and the line should begin dissipating as
it makes its way through the Coastal Plain. Brief periods of heavy
rain will also accompany the line but should not lead to significant
flooding issues.

Following the convective line, the longwave trough will drag a
boundary (or a very weak front, if you can even call it that)
through the area this evening. Some hi-res guidance is indicating
some secondary development along this boundary but the atmosphere
should be sufficiently overturned by that point to keep anything
from lasting too long. Thus I will keep the forecast dry this
evening. Temperatures and dewpoints tonight behind the boundary will
be very similar to what was seen this morning. Lows bottoming out in
the lower 70s with dewpoints thereabouts as well. Patchy fog is
possible tonight especially in locations that see rainfall this
afternoon but not an idealized setup for widespread dense fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM Friday...

Saturday will start off dry with large scale subsidence across the
Piedmont. Meanwhile, an upper low will move from the upper Midwest
into IA/MO Saturday afternoon, pushing a weak boundary through
through the OH valley and into western VA/NC in the process.
Forecast profiles do not look overly supportive of precipitation
tomorrow given dry air and subsidence aloft but a few isolated
showers could develop east of the mountains within the lee trough
during the afternoon hours. Very low PoPs look more than sufficient
for tomorrow afternoon with dry weather forecast for the
evening/overnight hours.

Temps will be within a degree or two of normal with highs around 90,
lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 PM Friday...

The extended period will generally feature a typical summertime
pattern for central NC, with diurnal showers and storms each
afternoon and evening, quickly dissipating after sunset, and no real
frontal passages to speak of. The best chance of showers and storms
comes on Sunday, thanks to deep moist southerly return flow off the
Atlantic around both an upper low centered over IA/MO and a western
Atlantic ridge. The 12z GFS has precipitable water values near or in
excess of 2 inches over much of the area. Thus have chance POPs in
the east increasing to likely in the west where the best moisture
and instability will be. 0-6 km flow still looks too weak for any
organized severe storm threat.

As the center of the Bermuda high drifts farther west closer to our
region, subsidence and weaker moisture advection will then result in
decreasing shower and storm chances through midweek. Chance POPs on
Monday give way to the lowest POPs of the period on Tuesday and
Wednesday (slight to low chance), again highest in the western
Piedmont which will be farthest from the center of the ridge. The
GFS and its ensembles are farther west with the Atlantic ridge and
thus especially dry compared to the ECMWF. By Thursday and Friday,
as the next upper trough and associated cold front move through the
Upper Midwest, they will act to weaken the ridge and push it SE,
with a strengthening lee surface trough over the Piedmont. Thus
shower and storm chances should begin to increase again, but POPs
stay around 30-40% as there will continue to be a lack of any
forcing mechanisms.

High temperatures will be close to normal through the period (upper-
80s to lower-90s), with Tuesday and Wednesday likely being the
warmest days due to less clouds/precip. Enough clouds and moisture
will be around to keep lows near to slightly above normal, in the
upper-60s to lower-70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM Friday...

VFR conditions across the area for the most part, but a broken line
of convection will cross the area later this afternoon with a brief
period of MVFR (or lower) conditions possible within the convective
band. Any storms that move through will dissipate after sunset with
a return to VFR conditions for the rest of the night. There is a
possibility of some patchy MVFR fog overnight but I don't have
enough confidence to include it in any given TAF. Any fog that
develops will mix out quickly after sunrise.

Outlook: Looking ahead, Saturday will see a weak boundary lifting
north through the area but with large scale subsidence aloft, it
looks to be a mostly dry day at the TAF sites. Sunday onward will
see a typical summerlike pattern with VFR conditions and periods of
sub-VFR diurnally driven convection.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Leins
NEAR TERM...Leins
SHORT TERM...Leins
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Leins

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
946 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-101400-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
946 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across central NC
this afternoon. Some storms may be strong, with a few possibly
approaching severe limits. Gusty winds will be the primary threat.
Storms will dissipate quickly after sunset.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
415 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

NCZ010-011-026>028-041-043-092115-
Edgecombe NC-Nash NC-Franklin NC-Warren NC-Wake NC-Halifax NC-
Wilson NC-
415 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WARREN...
NASH...EDGECOMBE...HALIFAX...NORTHEASTERN WAKE...CENTRAL WILSON AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 412 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Woodland to near
Dortches to near Zebulon. There was a storm spotter report of half
inch hail in Northern Wake County. The line of storms is moving
southeast at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Deadly cloud to ground lightning will also be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Rocky Mount, Roanoke Rapids, Tarboro, Nashville, Louisburg, Halifax,
Wilson, Wake Forest, Zebulon and Scotland Neck.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

These thunderstorms are producing an excessive amount of deadly cloud
to ground lightning. Seek shelter indoors and stay away from windows.
If you cannot seek shelter indoors, an enclosed vehicle can provide
safe shelter. Deadly lightning strikes can occur well ahead of an
approaching storm, prior to the arrival of rain and wind.

&&

LAT...LON 3609 7731 3600 7741 3588 7734 3564 7804
      3573 7821 3582 7826 3578 7832 3598 7871
      3604 7860 3602 7855 3607 7854 3628 7811
      3647 7764 3641 7755 3632 7757 3632 7744
      3624 7738 3621 7738 3616 7727 3611 7723
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 301DEG 30KT 3633 7728 3605 7785 3588 7836

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
425 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

NCZ040-076-092130-
Lee NC-Chatham NC-
425 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN
LEE AND CHATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 424 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of showers and
strong thunderstorms near Goldston, or 7 miles southeast of Siler
City, moving east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sanford, Pittsboro, Siler City, Goldston, Broadway, Crosswinds
Boating Center, Crosswinds Campground, Harpers Crossroads, Jordan
Lake State Rec Area and Bynum.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Dont wait until you see the first lightning flash before heading to
safety. Move indoors at the first sign of threatening skies or the
first sound of thunder. Deadly lightning strikes can occur well ahead
of an approaching storm, prior to the arrival of rain and wind. Make
sure that lightning is well away from your location before resuming
outdoor activity.

&&

LAT...LON 3577 7894 3561 7899 3559 7895 3552 7897
      3545 7903 3549 7934 3550 7934 3552 7935
      3551 7955 3582 7949
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 278DEG 13KT 3568 7934

AK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
430 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

NCZ074-075-083>085-092130-
Scotland NC-Anson NC-Richmond NC-Montgomery NC-Moore NC-
430 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MOORE...
NORTHWESTERN SCOTLAND...CENTRAL ANSON...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY AND
RICHMOND COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 430 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Ansonville, or 9 miles northeast of Wadesboro, moving
east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Southern Pines, Rockingham, Wadesboro, Pinehurst, Hamlet, Aberdeen,
Ansonville, Hoffman, Whispering Pines and Pinebluff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3535 7995 3529 7937 3509 7941 3504 7946
      3501 7942 3481 7946 3490 8022
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 277DEG 16KT 3508 7996

CA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
437 PM EDT FRI JUL 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG CARY                    35.78N 78.80W
07/09/2021                   WAKE               NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE FELL ON HOUSE.NO WIND OR RAIN IN AREA
            AT TIME, ISOLATED INCIDENT DUE TO SATURATED
            SOILS FROM YESTERDAYS RAINFALL FROM ELSA.

&&

CA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
506 PM EDT FRI JUL 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N RALEIGH             35.88N 78.65W
07/09/2021                   WAKE               NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            1 TREE DOWN ON TROLLINGWOOD LANE.

&&

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
518 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

NCZ027-028-042-043-078-092215-
Edgecombe NC-Nash NC-Johnston NC-Wayne NC-Wilson NC-
518 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WAYNE...
SOUTHWESTERN NASH...SOUTHWESTERN EDGECOMBE...WILSON AND NORTHEASTERN
JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 518 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Bailey to 8 miles
northeast of Smithfield. Movement was east at 10 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Wilson, Elm City, Fremont, Bailey, Micro, Pinetops, Kenly, Lucama,
Stantonsburg and Black Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3568 7765 3557 7782 3554 7782 3541 7798
      3564 7844 3571 7834 3583 7806 3579 7752
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 283DEG 11KT 3576 7803 3559 7824

CA