Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
416 PM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A nearly stationary front will linger over southern NC this morning.
The front will become a warm front and move north through the region
late this afternoon and tonight. A strong cold front will surge east
across the state Sunday afternoon and early evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

Due to severe weather ongoing the afternoon AFD will be issued
late...

Previous Discussion...
As of 1000 am Saturday...

The dense fog, which formed INVOF the stalled front where the lower
60 dewpoints still reside, will continue to lift and dissipate
over the next hour or two. Will let the Fog Advisory expire at
10 am.

Skirting along the NW periphery of a strong Sub-tropical ridge axis
centered over the eastern Gulf and western Atlantic, weak shortwave
impulses, over the Tn Valley this morning, will move NE through the
southern Mid-Atlantic states through the late afternoon/early
evening. During the same time, the stalled frontal zone that
currently bisects the forecast area, will retreat north as a warm
front. Lift associated with both of these features will support
scattered showers and some thunderstorms by the afternoon and into
the overnight hours, with the highest convective coverage expected
INVOF of the best lift/forcing skirting just north of the area.

Upon the dissipation of the fog, partly cloudy skies will allow for
some tempered heating, enough so that weak to moderate instability
of 1000-1500 J/Kg is forecast to develop along and south of Highway
64(where the lower 60 dewpoints reside). Deep layer shear remains
strong, 40-60kts, strongest across the north. Although the best
forcing, instability, and shear do not coincide, both remain
sufficient to support a few strong to severe storms across the area.
Hail and wind are the primary severe threats.

Highs today ranging from mid 70s NW to lower/mid 80s SE, potentially
cooler across the NW Piedmont if showers and storms develop earlier
than anticipated.

Cannot rule out some lingering showers overnight. Otherwise, areas
of low stratus and fog are likely. Lows in the upper 50s north, to
lower mid 60s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Due to severe weather ongoing the afternoon AFD will be issued
late...

Previous Discussion...
As of 248 AM Saturday...

...Windy Sunday with S-SW winds at 20-30 mph with gusts to over 40
mph...

...Strong to severe thunderstorms expected to cross the region
between mid-afternoon through the early evening Sunday...

Damaging wind gusts the main threat, mid afternoon Sunday through
early evening.

Timing of thunderstorms is critical - and it appears this threat
will be highest with peak heating into the early evening Sunday.

The warm front will have lifted north into VA Sunday morning. This
will place all of central NC in the warm sector Sunday. Dew points
are expected to increase into the lower to mid 60s. As the mid/upper
level trough approaches from southern and central Appalachians, a
strengthening low level jet of 50-60 knots is expected to develop
over the central and eastern part of NC by early afternoon. As
temperatures surge into the mid 70s NW to mid 80s over the
Sandhills, the MLCAPE will reach or exceed 1000 J/kg east of the
Triad region. Thunderstorms are expected to move out of the
Appalachians into the western Piedmont by mid-afternoon, then surge
east across central NC between 300 PM and 800 PM. With the mean
steering flow expected to reach 65-70 knots, a fast moving line of
thunderstorms is favored. This line will likely move very quickly
with damaging wind gusts possible at the leading edge. An isolated
tornado is possible, but the warm front should be well north of our
region by the time the storms develop.

Strong SSW flow at 20-30 mph will likely gust to 35-40 mph out ahead
of the line of storms.

The line of storms should exit our region rather quickly by late
afternoon in the NW and in the east by the mid-evening hours.
Otherwise, clearing, breezy and turning colder with lows in the
upper 30s NW to near 50 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Due to severe weather ongoing the afternoon AFD will be issued
late...

Previous Discussion...
As of 340 AM Saturday...

Monday through Wednesday: Surface high pressure will quickly move
across the area on Monday, with a much cooler and dryer airmass
filtering into the area. This will result in a return to dry weather
for the start of next week, with high temps back in the 60s. As the
surface high shifts further offshore Monday night into Tuesday a mid
level disturbance will lift northeastward from the northern Gulf of
Mexico spreading showers back across the area Tuesday morning into
Wednesday. However, confidence on the track of the system and timing
and where the surface front will be remain low, along with when we
will see precip spread back into our area. The 00Z medium range
guidance is a bit slower with spreading precip back into the area
from the south. For now will go with chance pops from Tuesday
through Wednesday. Will need to keep an eye on this system as we
will likely see some sort of in-situ CAD develop, and possibly
storms (possibly strong to severe). However, at this time with
differences in the medium range models and run to run differences
will leave out any mention of severe. Temps during this period will
be difficult too, largely driven by the precip and actual track of
the system. For now will go with highs generally in the 60s for
Tuesday, with mid 60s to mid 70s on Wednesday (low confidence
though). Low are expected to be in the 40s and 50s.

Wednesday night through Friday: The mid/upper level flow pattern
will amplify mid week as a deepening trough drives a strong cold
front through the area on Wednesday night/Thursday morning, along
with band of showers and thunderstorms, some of these storms could
be severe depending on the amount of instability we have (poor
diurnal timing). Dry weather is expected to return by Thursday
afternoon with high temps returning to the 50s, with lows in the
upper 20s to mid 30s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 4 PM Saturday...

An area of showers and thunderstorms, currently moving through the
western Piedmont, will move east through much of the forecast area
through 00 to 03z. While all terminals could be impacted from these
storms, the KINT, KGSO(20-21z), and KRDU(21-24z) are the most likely
to experience IFR to MVFR flight restrictions in heavy and gusty
winds. Additional scattered showers could move through the area
overnight with widespread IFR to MVFR ceilings and patchy fog
expected to develop between 06 to 12z. Additionally, a strong LLJ
of 35 to 45 kts will overspread the area late tonight/early Sunday
morning, resulting in a period of LLWS at all TAF sites.

Sub-VFR ceilings will lift to VFR during the mid to late morning
hours with windy conditions developing as sustained winds increase
to 15 to 20 kts, with gusts to 30 to 35kts. An organized line of
strong to severe storms is expected to move east across the area
Sunday afternoon(west) and Sunday evening(east), bringing another
round of sub-VFR conditions in storms.

Outlook: VFR conditions in high pressure will follow until the next
frontal system and cold air damming --with rain and LIFR-IFR
conditions-- affects cntl NC Tue-Wed.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...CBL/MWS

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