Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Raleigh, NC

771 
WGUS62 KRAH 180241
FFARAH

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
941 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

NCZ011-026>028-041>043-074>078-083>086-088-089-181100-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0001.210218T1500Z-210219T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Montgomery-
Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-
Sampson-
Including the cities of Princeville, Nashville, Carthage, Apex, 
Spring Hope, Wilson, Angier, Polkton, Rockingham, Enfield, Sanford, 
Smithfield, Southern Pines, Cary, Dunn, Roanoke Rapids, Wadesboro, 
Selma, Raeford, Ellerbe, Clayton, Hope Mills, Franklinton, 
Louisburg, Scotland Neck, Roseboro, Wagram, Raleigh, Tarboro, 
Clinton, Fayetteville, Laurinburg, Erwin, Rocky Mount, Buies Creek, 
Wake Forest, Knightdale, Camp Mackall, Spring Lake, Goldsboro, Troy, 
Lillington, Aberdeen, and Pinehurst
941 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 
FRIDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central North Carolina, including the following 
  areas, Anson, Cumberland, Edgecombe, Franklin, Halifax, Harnett, 
  Hoke, Johnston, Lee, Montgomery, Moore, Nash, Richmond, Sampson, 
  Scotland, Wake, Wayne and Wilson.

* From Thursday morning through Friday morning

* Moderate to heavy rainfall of 2 to 3 inches will fall across the 
  region Thursday morning through Friday morning. Saturated ground 
  and elevated river levels will result in run-off and poor drainage 
  of water. Numerous area rivers are already in flood and are 
  forecast to continue to rise through the weekend.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

$$

CBL

507 
WGUS62 KRAH 180822
FFARAH

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
322 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021

NCZ011-026>028-041>043-074>078-083>086-088-089-181700-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0001.210218T1500Z-210219T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Montgomery-
Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-
Sampson-
Including the cities of Princeville, Nashville, Carthage, Apex, 
Spring Hope, Wilson, Angier, Polkton, Rockingham, Enfield, Sanford, 
Smithfield, Southern Pines, Cary, Dunn, Roanoke Rapids, Wadesboro, 
Selma, Raeford, Ellerbe, Clayton, Hope Mills, Franklinton, 
Louisburg, Scotland Neck, Roseboro, Wagram, Raleigh, Tarboro, 
Clinton, Fayetteville, Laurinburg, Erwin, Rocky Mount, Buies Creek, 
Wake Forest, Knightdale, Camp Mackall, Spring Lake, Goldsboro, Troy, 
Lillington, Aberdeen, and Pinehurst
322 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING 
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central North Carolina, including the following 
  areas, Anson, Cumberland, Edgecombe, Franklin, Halifax, Harnett, 
  Hoke, Johnston, Lee, Montgomery, Moore, Nash, Richmond, Sampson, 
  Scotland, Wake, Wayne and Wilson.

* From 10 AM EST this morning through Friday morning

* Moderate to heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches will fall across the 
  region this morning through Friday morning. Saturated ground and 
  elevated river levels will result in run-off and poor drainage of 
  water. Numerous area rivers are already in flood and are forecast 
  to continue to rise through the weekend.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

$$

Green

803 
WGUS62 KRAH 182042
FFARAH

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
342 PM EST Thu Feb 18 2021

.Low pressure will bring another round of significant rain to the 
area through Friday morning. .

NCZ011-026>028-041>043-074>078-083>086-088-089-190930-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-210219T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Montgomery-
Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-
Sampson-
Including the cities of Princeville, Nashville, Carthage, Apex, 
Spring Hope, Wilson, Angier, Polkton, Rockingham, Enfield, Sanford, 
Smithfield, Southern Pines, Cary, Dunn, Roanoke Rapids, Wadesboro, 
Selma, Raeford, Ellerbe, Clayton, Hope Mills, Franklinton, 
Louisburg, Scotland Neck, Roseboro, Wagram, Raleigh, Tarboro, 
Clinton, Fayetteville, Laurinburg, Erwin, Rocky Mount, Buies Creek, 
Wake Forest, Knightdale, Camp Mackall, Spring Lake, Goldsboro, Troy, 
Lillington, Aberdeen, and Pinehurst
342 PM EST Thu Feb 18 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central North Carolina, including the following 
  areas, Anson, Cumberland, Edgecombe, Franklin, Halifax, Harnett, 
  Hoke, Johnston, Lee, Montgomery, Moore, Nash, Richmond, Sampson, 
  Scotland, Wake, Wayne and Wilson.

* Through Friday morning

* Additional rainfall of 1 to 1.5 inches is expected through Friday 
  morning. Saturated ground and elevated river levels will result in 
  rapid run-off. Numerous area rivers are already in flood and are 
  forecast to continue to rise through the weekend.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

$$

PWB

029 
WGUS62 KRAH 190225
FFARAH

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
925 PM EST Thu Feb 18 2021

.Low pressure will bring another round of rain to the area 
through Friday morning. .

NCZ011-026-027-041-074>076-083-084-190330-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-210219T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Wake-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond-
Including the cities of Roanoke Rapids, Enfield, Scotland Neck, 
Louisburg, Franklinton, Nashville, Spring Hope, Rocky Mount, 
Raleigh, Cary, Apex, Wake Forest, Knightdale, Troy, 
Southern Pines, Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Carthage, Sanford, 
Wadesboro, Polkton, Rockingham, and Ellerbe
925 PM EST Thu Feb 18 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of central North Carolina has
been cancelled. Additional rainfall amounts of up to
a half inch are expected overnight. However, no additional
flooding will occur.

$$

NCZ028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089-191200-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-210219T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Harnett-Wayne-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-
Sampson-
Including the cities of Tarboro, Princeville, Smithfield, Selma, 
Clayton, Wilson, Lillington, Angier, Buies Creek, Erwin, Dunn, 
Goldsboro, Laurinburg, Camp Mackall, Wagram, Raeford, 
Fayetteville, Spring Lake, Hope Mills, Clinton, and Roseboro
925 PM EST Thu Feb 18 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central North Carolina, including the following 
  areas, Cumberland, Edgecombe, Harnett, Hoke, Johnston, 
  Sampson, Scotland, Wayne, and Wilson. 

* Until 7 AM EST Friday

* Additional rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches is expected through 
  Friday morning. Saturated ground and elevated river levels will 
  result in rapid run-off. Numerous area rivers are already in 
  flood and are forecast to continue to rise through the weekend. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most
flood deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

$$

292 
WGUS62 KRAH 190853
FFARAH

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
353 AM EST Fri Feb 19 2021

NCZ028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089-191200-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-210219T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Harnett-Wayne-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-
Sampson-
Including the cities of Wilson, Wagram, Clinton, Dunn, Buies Creek, 
Goldsboro, Roseboro, Selma, Raeford, Princeville, Angier, Spring 
Lake, Erwin, Clayton, Hope Mills, Lillington, Camp Mackall, Tarboro, 
Fayetteville, Smithfield, and Laurinburg
353 AM EST Fri Feb 19 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central North Carolina, including the following 
  areas, Cumberland, Edgecombe, Harnett, Hoke, Johnston, Sampson, 
  Scotland, Wayne and Wilson.

* Until 7 AM EST this morning

* A batch of moderate to heavy rain will move through the Coastal 
  Plain of North Carolina early this morning, dropping up to an inch 
  of rain on already saturated soils, causing a risk for flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

$$

GIH

046 
WGUS62 KRAH 191145
FFARAH

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
645 AM EST Fri Feb 19 2021

NCZ028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089-191245-
/O.EXP.KRAH.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-210219T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Harnett-Wayne-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-
Sampson-
Including the cities of Wilson, Wagram, Clinton, Dunn, Buies Creek, 
Goldsboro, Roseboro, Selma, Raeford, Princeville, Angier, Spring 
Lake, Erwin, Clayton, Hope Mills, Lillington, Camp Mackall, Tarboro, 
Fayetteville, Smithfield, and Laurinburg
645 AM EST Fri Feb 19 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of central North Carolina, 
including the following areas, Cumberland, Edgecombe, Harnett, Hoke, 
Johnston, Sampson, Scotland, Wayne and Wilson, will expire AT 7 AM 
EST this morning.

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

$$

GIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
221 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will build across the middle Atlantic today and
extend south across the region through Thursday night. At the same
time, a front and waves of low pressure will develop northeastward
along the Gulf and Southeast coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Update as of 1000 AM Wednesday...

Surface high pressure across the Mid-Atlantic will continue cold air
advection today, with highs 10-15 degrees below seasonal normals
yielding temperatures in the 40s. Skies will be partly cloudy before
the next system approaches the region later today. No major changes
were needed with this update. Please see the discussion below for
the forecast for tonight through Thursday.

Discussion as of 315 AM Wednesday...

Clouds will rapidly increase this evening, and precipitation will
follow soon after. The low pressure system responsible for the
precipitation will be off the Louisiana coast this evening, moving
northeast into southern Georgia by Thursday evening. While
temperatures will be warm enough for most precipitation to start as
rain, cooling surface temperatures will allow for a wide portion of
the forecast area to switch over to freezing rain. Freezing rain
will persist for many hours in many locations, through the rest of
the night and all of the day on Thursday. However, the warm nose of
temperatures above the surface may not initially be warm enough to
completely melt all snowflakes, and the below freezing surface layer
may be thick enough to allow for some sleet to occur due to
refreezing. The sleet should be a relatively short-lived event,
coming to an end by sunrise. By sunrise Thursday, all precipitation
should be falling as rain or freezing rain, and the transition zone
will shift very slowly north through the day. Many locations west of
I-95 should have at least a brief period of freezing rain except for
southwestern counties such as Anson, Richmond, and Scotland. While
the forecast for the last couple of days has leaned heavily on the
(colder) NAM solution, even the GFS is now coming in line with the
NAM in showing a sustained period of below freezing temperatures as
a result of cold advection, which provides increased confidence in a
prolonged freezing rain event. While locations north of I-85 will
generally remain below freezing all day, Sampson County is the only
area that might possibly have temperatures rise above 40 degrees on
Thursday. Finally, as strange as it is to think about when most of
the area will be receiving frozen precipitation, cannot rule out a
slight chance for thunderstorms, particularly east of I-95. In this
area, elevated convection may be able to develop off the top of the
strong inversion at 3-4 thousand feet with moderate lapse rates
extending into mid levels.

Have converted all counties that were in a Winter Storm Watch to a
Winter Storm Warning, in addition to adding Davidson and Randolph
Counties into a Warning. As expected, have also put several
counties in a Winter Weather Advisory where at least some
freezing rain accumulation is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Wednesday...

00Z model runs show precipitation sticking around longer, and this
is reflected in the updated forecast. Freezing rain may still be as
far south as US-64 to the west of Raleigh at sunset Thursday, and
while precipitation will continue through the night, the transition
from freezing rain to rain will be a slow one Thursday night.
Widespread precipitation will continue through the night, with
locations west of US-1 only beginning to dry out by late Thursday
night. While localized freezing rain is possible Friday morning,
temperatures should have warmed up enough that all precipitation has
changed over to rain by that time. While the Winter Storm Watch was
only in effect through midnight Friday, due to the colder air
sticking around longer, have issued advisories/warnings through 7am
Friday. Rain will continue east of US-1 through much of the morning,
with a chance of rain lingering east of I-95 through the afternoon.
Highs will be in the 40s. High pressure will finally begin to build
into the region Friday night, allowing skies to become mostly clear.
Temperatures will also plummet, falling into the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 221 PM Wednesday...

Finally, a break in the precip looks to be on the horizon as the
longwave trough axis exits the Mid Atlantic Friday evening/Saturday
morning. Outside of a very slight chance of a lingering shower along
and east of I-95 Friday evening, conditions should be dry for the
upcoming weekend. While the amplitude of the ridge forecast to move
through the area this weekend isn't terribly impressive and we
retain at least some degree of a northwesterly component to the flow
through Sunday morning, conditions should be dry, but cool. Temps
this weekend will reach the low to mid 40s for highs, low to mid 20s
for lows under mostly clear skies/favorable conditions for
radiational cooling.

Meanwhile, a fast moving shortwave trough will eject from the
Rockies and into the southern Plains on Sunday, with upper level
moisture and the first suggestions of isentropic ascent across the
SE CONUS late Sunday/early Monday. Sensible weather impacts at the
onset will be in the form of increasing clouds late Sunday night,
with precip chances holding off until daybreak Monday. Latest
available 12Z guidance and ensembles suggest a period of steady or
slowly rising temperatures early Monday morning which would preclude
any sort of wintry mix, and I kept the forecast all liquid at this
point. The fast moving nature of this wave will keep precip totals
down, and mainly confined to the daytime hours on Monday, with a
rapid drying trend expected Monday night. GEFS and ECENS are also in
line with this precip timing, although EC members are a bit quicker
with precip arrival and departure.

Weak northwesterly flow will gradually become zonal by mid week,
with nothing obvious upstream in the way of troughs. All in all, the
extended looks quiet save for the Monday shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 108 PM Wednesday...

High confidence in VFR conditions to start the TAF period. MVFR
ceilings across southeastern South Carolina will move northward this
evening and should reach FAY by 00Z and all other sites between 02-
03Z. Not much change in the forecast as we are still expecting IFR
conditions after 06Z as precipitation overspreads the region.
Freezing rain is expected at GSO/INT/RDU, with possible sleet mixed
in only briefly at GSO/INT. With temperatures forecast to be at or
below freezing over the Triad and Triangle through 18Z, have only
freezing rain at GSO/INT/RDU. There looks to be a period of moderate
freezing rain at GSO/INT between 10 and 15Z with the axis of
heaviest precipitation. Precipitation should be all rain at RWI and
FAY, though cannot rule out a brief period of freezing rain at RWI
prior to 12Z given latest forecast soundings.

Outlook: Areas of freezing rain will become rain by Friday morning,
with rain ending from west to east by Friday afternoon/evening. VFR
conditions are expected over the weekend. Another storm system may
approach late Monday with possible sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Friday
for NCZ007>010-021>025-038-039.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST
Friday for NCZ011-026-027-040-041-073>076.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Green/JJT
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Leins
AVIATION...Kren

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
318 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

NCZ007>010-021>025-038-039-181200-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-
Durham-Davidson-Randolph-
318 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ011-026-027-040-041-073>076-181200-
Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-
318 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ028-042-043-077-078-083>086-088-089-181200-
Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
Cumberland-Sampson-
318 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.