Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
322 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021

1) Heavy rainfall with possible Flash Flooding over and near the
mountains, burn scars, and along the Highway 50 corridor along/west
of I-25 this evening. Flash Flood Watch has been expanded.

2) A few isolated stronger storms capable of producing small hail
and gusty winds along the Highway 50 corridor, along/west of I-25,
through this evening.

Main update this afternoon was to expand the Flash Flood Watch into
southern Chaffee, Fremont, and Pueblo counties through this evening
as the more focused and stronger development along the Highway 50
corridor previously mentioned is occurring at this time. Moisture
and instability have increased, with visible imagery showing
persistent focus situated right into the Arkansas River Valley. With
moisture expected to increase and no real change in the overall
pattern through this evening, don't see why the current
thunderstorms with heavy rain/flash flooding developing within this
area won't stop. So, have expanded the Flash Flood Watch at this
time. While the main threats this afternoon will be heavy rainfall
and flash flooding, the stronger forcing along with the increases in
moisture and instability/lapse rates will support a few isolated
stronger storms. If this occurs, still think these storms will be
capable of producing nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 55 mph.
Intensity of these storms should diminish by mid evening, with the
flash flood threat also diminishing during that time.

.Sunday...A weak disturbance moves into the northern High Plains.
Flow on the eastern plains of Colorado becomes southeasterly
during the day with CAPES of over 1000 J/kg over northern
Colorado extending southward into southeast Colorado. Flow aloft
becomes light from the west to northwest which will allow for
convection to move off of the mountains. The location and
coverage of the convection varies among the models as forcing is
weak. Followed the general idea of the NBM/WPC which suggests
decreasing PoPs towards the east with the potential for highest
QPF along the I25 corridor. Over the mountains, the flow remains
light with a continued threat for locally heavy rain with slow
moving storms. WPC has much of the mountains in a marginal area
for excessive rainfall with the marginal area extending into
central and northeast Colorado, including KPUB and KCOS. --PGW--

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...Heavy Rain Threat Continues Monday...
...Drying and Warming Trend the Rest of the Week.

.Monday...Upper high starts building to north of the forecast
area. The models hint at a weak mid level circulation developing
near the Colorado/New Mexico border, and this is evident as a
band of enhanced moisture along the Colorado/New Mexico border.
There may also be a low level boundary in this region depending on
outflows from convection on Sunday. All the models point ot the
best chances for heavier rainfall being closer to the New Mexico
border. The threat for heavier rainfall also extends onto the
eastern plains with the NAMNest, for example, showing a custer of
thunderstorm during the afternoon south of US50. Further north,
precipitable waters start decreasing as easterly flow aloft and
subsidence bring in warmer and drier air aloft, reducing the
chances for locally heavy downpours. WPC Day 3 excessive rainfall
outlook has a marginal area for mostly the mountains.

.Tuesday through Saturday...High pressure aloft develops over the
region and it may drift slightly to the east. Day to day drifting
of the high may affect daily precipitation chances. The overall
trend is for warming and drying as monsoon moisture gets pushed
mainly to the west. There will be enough moisture for diurnal
convection over the mountains, but with less moisture the chances
for locally heavy downpours will decrease. Some models hint at a
cold front sometime Friday or Saturday which will bring low level
moisture to the plains, but how far south and west the low level
moisture moves is uncertain. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021

Active period continues this evening across the TAF sites,
especially around COS and ALS where evening showers and
thunderstorms will continue. With the most recent trends, did
increase wording of this expected precip, as coverage looks to
continue to increase into this evening. Precip may continue into mid
to late evening, though expect any thunder to diminish across COS
and PUB during this time. At this time, still think coverage of any
showers and storms will remain lower for ALS, though will continue
to monitor trends into the evening as some increase remains
possible. Precip development once again possible on Sunday, mainly
in the afternoon for all sites but confidence is low with exact
coverage and timing.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ060>062-
064>068-072-073-076-077-083-086.

&&

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ/PGW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1149 AM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021

COZ058>089-093>099-251800-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1149 AM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
this afternoon into this evening across southern Colorado,
especially along and west of I-25. While flash flooding remains
possible over and near the mountains and across the area burn
scars, there is an increasing possibility for stronger storms
along and around the I-25 and Highway 50 corridors. This
development could produce hail to nickel size, wind gusts to 55
mph, and isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue across
the mountains from Sunday into Monday, with scattered storms
possible along the I-25 corridor and across the eastern plains
both days. Storms will be slow moving and capable of producing
locally heavy rain, leading to enhanced flash flooding risks,
especially for burn scar areas. Other storm threats will include
lightning and gusty outflow winds to around 50 mph, and some small
hail will be possible with the stronger storms.

Storm coverage and intensity will begin to decrease from Tuesday
through the remainder of the week, as moisture levels fall across
the region, though isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
storms will be possible each day, mainly across the higher
terrain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible across the mountains of the Continental Divide, northern
Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Rampart Range, and the I-25 and
Highway 50 corridors this afternoon and evening.

RODRIGUEZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
312 PM MDT SAT JUL 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 WSW PINON             38.41N 104.69W
07/24/2021                   PUEBLO             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIDESPREAD FLOODING IN THE AREA. 5.52 INCHES
            OF RAIN IN RAIN GAGE.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
328 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021

COZ085-086-242215-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
328 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN EL PASO AND NORTHEASTERN
PUEBLO COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

At 326 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Avondale, or 14 miles east of Pueblo, moving west at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph along with torrential rainfall will be
possible with this storm. Minor street flooding will be possible
along highway 50 east of Pueblo in the Avondale area which could
worsen if storms continue to move over the same location.

Locations impacted include...
Pueblo, Boone, Avondale, Pueblo Depot, Salt Creek and Blende.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10413 3809 10421 3820 10463 3852 10456
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 105DEG 10KT 3825 10435

KT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
433 PM MDT SAT JUL 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     HEAVY RAIN       AVONDALE                38.24N 104.35W
07/24/2021  M3.00 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
443 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021

COZ069-072-073-242345-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft CO-
443 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 442 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Crestone Peak, or 24 miles southwest of Junkins Burn Scar. This
storm was nearly stationary. Moderate to heavy rainfall may be
producing enhanced stream flows in drainages and streams over
northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains near the Crestone group of
mountains. Around .75-1.00" of rain has fallen according to radar
with rainfall rates around 2-3" an hour.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crestone, Crestone Peak and Great Sand Dunes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3805 10554 3796 10547 3788 10554 3786 10581
      3794 10582 3802 10576 3808 10564
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 101DEG 2KT 3798 10551

KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
457 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021

COZ065-066-069-242345-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Ft CO-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide below 10000 Ft CO-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
457 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SAGUACHE COUNTY UNTIL 545
PM MDT...

At 456 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Saguache, or 26 miles southwest of Decker Burn Scar, moving west at
15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and torrential rainfall will be possible
with this storm. Rainfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour will be
possible with this storm and localized flooding will be possible if
successive storms move over the same location.

Locations impacted include...
Saguache.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3815 10609 3798 10617 3802 10651 3827 10638
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 109DEG 11KT 3809 10622

KT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
505 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021

COZ079-083-086-242345-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
505 PM MDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN FREMONT...
NORTHEASTERN CUSTER AND NORTHWESTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM
MDT...

At 503 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of heavy rain
producing thunderstorms near Pueblo Reservoir and Blende, or 12
miles southwest of Pueblo, moving west at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and torrential rainfall will be possible
with these storms.  Pockets of rainfall rates up to 2 inches per
hour will be possible with the stronger storms.  This could cause
minor flooding of roads and low lying areas through 545 PM.

Locations impacted include...
Pueblo, Pueblo Reservoir, Salt Creek, Blende, southern Pueblo West,
and Wetmore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10445 3804 10457 3814 10515 3840 10503
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 108DEG 11KT 3819 10482

KT