Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
825 AM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The upper level trough will finally start to progress northeast away
from the region today into tonight. A warm front will lift through
the region on Monday. Mid week, a cold front will approach the
region before stalling over or just northwest of our region. Another
upper level trough is expected to approach our region next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The fog is dissipating and only patchy areas of low clouds
remain this morning. As the winds pick up slightly (remaining
fairly light) and the sun shines down, we should see the
remaining low clouds erode.

Upper level low pressure will finally begin shifting northeast of
the region today. After an unseasonably cool and dreary day on
Saturday, significant improvements are in the forecast today.

The departure of the upper low means the cold pool of air aloft
also starts to move away. Heights and temperatures remain below
average throughout the column today, but they are definitely
higher than yesterday, moving up closer to climatology. With a
good deal of sunshine, this combination should bring
temperatures up to either side of 80 degrees in most of the
region, about 5 to 7 degrees below average. A bit of cooling at
the coast is possible in the afternoon as a south- southeasterly
sea breeze develops thanks to light synoptic flow.

Regarding rainfall today, the outlook is quite optimistic for
outdoor activities. We do still have a couple of factors which could
contribute to shower chances. While the upper low is starting to
pull away, the air aloft is still cold enough to keep low level
lapse rates steep. Also, an area or two of weak shortwave energy
will rotate cyclonically around the back side of the departing upper
low, and will move over our region. This will provide some lift.
These factors, combined with dew points remaining near 60, will
favor updraft development and bring a good deal of cumulus
formation. However, the differences today are in the mid-levels.
While low-level lapse rates remain steep, they are much less so in
the mid-levels. Even more noticeably, the mid-levels are
significantly drier today thanks to northwest flow developing aloft.
BUFKIT soundings suggest updrafts will struggle mightily to grow
above about 10,000 to 15,000 ft as dry air increases. Because of
this, afternoon shower coverage should be quite limited. Have left
at least a slight chance (20%) of showers in throughout the area,
with some low end chance (30%) values to the north. But many areas
will likely be dry all day, and any showers should be short lived.
In addition, with convection likely to be so shallow, I removed
thunder from the forecast entirely. Cannot rule out an isolated
lightning strike, but if it occurs at all it should be so isolated
so as not to warrant a forecast mention. Overall, a rather pleasant
Independence Day.

Overnight, loss of both daytime heating and shortwave forcing should
bring an end to any showers soon after sunset. Should be a dry and
fairly cool night with lows falling to either side of 60. With light
winds, decreasing dew point depressions, and a developing low level
inversion, another round of fog development is possible. Evening
firework displays may enhance this potential, at least in localized
areas, due to increasingly poor conditions for smoke dispersion
after 9 or 10 PM. Went more bullish on fog in the grids in part
because of this.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The main story through this period will be the return of hot and
humid conditions.

On Monday, a warm front will lift through our region. In it's wake,
low level flow will shift from easterly to southerly. In the mid and
upper levels, a short wave ridge may briefly build over the region.
The net result is that we should have dry conditions through the day
along with a warming trend. However, Monday doesn't look like it
will be the hottest day of this period, as the warm front may not
fully lift north of our region until late in the day.

Monday night into Tuesday morning, a low level trough could provide
enough convergence to result in isolated showers and storms, but
given that the mid and upper level flow should become zonal in the
wake of the short wave ridge, there will be little upper level
support, so coverage should be quite limited.

With the warm front north of our region by day break on Tuesday, it
will be a very warm and humid day. Some models trended slightly
lower with temperatures (most operational models now showing highs
in the upper 80s/lower 90s), but even with this it looks like we
could still get close to 100 degree heat index values especially
along the 95 urban corridor. Further to the east, potential for sea
and bay breezes could limit afternoon heating, and north and west of
the fall line, the previously mentioned low level trough could mean
increased cloudiness, and thus a minor limitation for heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overview: Still have several chances for rain in the long term, with
the main focus at this point on the Thursday and Thursday night
period with a potential for heavy rain. The main features we will be
watching are a cold front approaching the region Wednesday into
Friday, and an upper level trough digging into the Great Lakes
region and possibly approaching our region by next weekend. There
remains considerable uncertainty if we will see any remnant of
tropical cyclone Elsa.

Details:

Wednesday...Cold front should make progress into western NY/PA
during the day on Wednesday, but for the most part, expect this to
stay far enough west that our region should see any showers and
storms until the late afternoon/evening time frame (if even then).
Also with the timing a bit slower, it looks like Wednesday will be
just as warm (and humid) if not warmer than Tuesday, so potential
remains for heat index values near 100 F.

Thursday and Thursday night...I am getting increasingly concerned
that the pattern on Thursday has some key similarities with a Maddox
Synoptic heavy rain pattern and similarities to the pattern we just
saw last Wednesday/Thursday. The previously mentioned cold front
should be stalled either over our region or just to our northwest.
Mid and upper level flow will be nearly parallel to the SSW-NNE
oriented surface front thanks to a slow moving mid/upper level
trough over the Ohio Valley. It is more common to see the Maddox
Synoptic Pattern in the Spring or Fall, but there are enough
similarities that I added a mention of heavy rain in this period.
This is all even if we don't see any remnant moisture from Tropical
Cyclone Elsa, which some models now show dissipating well before it
gets this far north. Likely showers and storms, not to mention
cloudy conditions, should help to keep high temperatures in the 80s
on Thursday even if the cold front remains just to our west.

Friday...We will likely still have the cold front within our region
on Friday. Thus, we could have more showers and storms, along with
heavy rain potential on Friday. However, most operational models
show the mid/upper level trough progressing northeast of the region
by this time. This should somewhat limit the threat for heavy rain
and could limit the coverage of showers and storms.

Saturday and beyond...Another mid and upper level trough could
approach our region next weekend, but there is poor agreement run to
run on the evolution of this trough, as the GFS in particular showed
a big shift from the slow moving closed low it was depicting on
yesterday's run to a progressive positively-tilted open wave trough
with the latest run. Given the uncertainty, stayed close to a blend
of guidance and the previous forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Mainly VFR conditions are expected today, with SCT to
BKN clouds around 5kft for most of the day. An isolated
afternoon or evening shower is possible at any terminal, but
coverage should be so limited that no mention has been made in
the TAFs. Winds today may be best described as light and
variable, but the general trend should be for a shift from west-
northwest to southwest through the day, with speeds barely more
than 5 kt. A more southerly or south- southeast wind is likely
near the coast this afternoon. Moderate to high confidence
overall.

Tonight... Initially, VFR. Patchy fog development is possible
especially after 06z. This could bring local restrictions to MVFR or
IFR. Winds light and variable or calm. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Monday and Tuesday...VFR conditions expected. Winds should start
light and variable Monday morning, but eventually shift to
southwesterly 5 to 10 kt Monday night into Tuesday. High confidence.

Wednesday through Thursday...Starting VFR, but by later in the day
Wednesday, a prolonged period of MVFR or even IFR conditions are
possible as showers and thunderstorms move into the region.
Southwest winds around 5 to 15 knots. Low confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight... Sub-SCA conditions are expected. Light west or
northwest winds this morning shifting to south-southeast by
afternoon and overnight. Speeds light, only around 10 kt. Seas 3 to
4 ft. An isolated afternoon or evening shower is possible.

Outlook...

Monday...Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria.

Tuesday...Wind gusts may near 25 knots and seas may near 5 ft,
mainly along the northern NJ coastal Atlantic waters. A Small Craft
Advisory may be needed.

Wednesday and Thursday...Winds and seas should mostly stay below
SCA criteria. Seas may start to near 5 ft Thursday afternoon.

Rip Currents...

Winds along the coast shift to the south and diminish to around 10
kt today. Seas subside compared to yesterday as well. As a result,
there will be a low risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents. The low risk will likely continue into Monday.

There is some potential for an elevated risk of rip currents
Wednesday through Friday if tropical system Elsa tracks off the
eastern seaboard.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Synopsis...Johnson/Meola
Near Term...Meola/O'Brien
Short Term...Johnson
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Johnson/Meola/O'Brien
Marine...Johnson/O'Brien

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

DEZ001-050906-
New Castle-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for New Castle County in Delaware.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Tuesday.
Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Wednesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ002-050906-
Kent-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Kent County in Delaware.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ003-050906-
Inland Sussex-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for inland portions of Sussex County
in Delaware.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ004-050906-
Delaware Beaches-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal portions of
Sussex County in Delaware.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ054-050906-
Carbon-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Carbon County in Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ055-050906-
Monroe-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Monroe County in Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ060-050906-
Berks-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Berks County in Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ061-050906-
Lehigh-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lehigh County in Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ062-050906-
Northampton-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northampton County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ070-050906-
Delaware-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Delaware County in Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Tuesday.
Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Wednesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ071-050906-
Philadelphia-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Philadelphia County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Tuesday.
Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Wednesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ101-050906-
Western Chester-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Chester County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Tuesday.
Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Wednesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ102-050906-
Eastern Chester-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Chester County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Tuesday.
Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Wednesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ103-050906-
Western Montgomery-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Montgomery County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Tuesday.
Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Wednesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ104-050906-
Eastern Montgomery-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Montgomery County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Tuesday.
Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Wednesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ105-050906-
Upper Bucks-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for upper Bucks County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ106-050906-
Lower Bucks-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for lower Bucks County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Tuesday.
Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Wednesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ001-050906-
Sussex-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Sussex County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ007-050906-
Warren-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Warren County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ008-050906-
Morris-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Morris County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Tuesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ009-050906-
Hunterdon-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Hunterdon County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Tuesday.
Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Wednesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ010-050906-
Somerset-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Somerset County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Tuesday.
Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Wednesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ012-050906-
Middlesex-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middlesex County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Tuesday.
Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Wednesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ013-050906-
Western Monmouth-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Monmouth County in New
Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Tuesday.
Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Wednesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ014-050906-
Eastern Monmouth-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Monmouth County in New
Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ015-050906-
Mercer-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Mercer County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Tuesday.
Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Wednesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ016-050906-
Salem-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Salem County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ017-050906-
Gloucester-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Gloucester County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Tuesday.
Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Wednesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ018-050906-
Camden-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Camden County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Tuesday.
Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Wednesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ019-050906-
Northwestern Burlington-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Burlington County in
New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Tuesday.
Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Wednesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ020-050906-
Ocean-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for inland portions of Ocean County
in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Tuesday.
Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Wednesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ021-050906-
Cumberland-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Cumberland County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ022-050906-
Atlantic-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for inland portions of Atlantic
County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ023-050906-
Cape May-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Cape May County excluding the
Atlantic coast in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ024-050906-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal portions of
Cape May County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ025-050906-
Coastal Atlantic-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for coastal portions of Atlantic
County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ026-050906-
Coastal Ocean-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for coastal portions of Ocean County
in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ027-050906-
Southeastern Burlington-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Burlington County in
New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Wednesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

MDZ012-050906-
Kent MD-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Kent County in Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot conditions could result in heat exhaustion with prolonged exposure
on Wednesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

MDZ015-050906-
Queen Annes-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Queen Annes County in Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

MDZ019-050906-
Talbot-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Talbot County in Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

MDZ020-050906-
Caroline-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Caroline County in Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-050906-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for upper Delaware Bay.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ431-050906-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for lower Delaware Bay.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Gale-force winds and very rough seas are forecast on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ450-050906-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters
adjacent to Monmouth County out 20 nm.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ451-050906-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters
adjacent to Ocean County out 20 nm.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ452-050906-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters
adjacent to Atlantic County out 20 nm.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Gale-force winds and very rough seas are forecast on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ453-050906-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters
adjacent to Cape May County out 20 nm.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Gale-force winds and very rough seas are forecast on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ454-050906-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters
adjacent to the mouth of Delaware Bay out 20 nm.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Gale-force winds and very rough seas are forecast on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ455-050906-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
0506 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters
adjacent to Sussex County out 20 nm.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Gale-force winds and very rough seas are forecast on Thursday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
301 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021

NJZ020-041930-
Ocean-
301 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN OCEAN COUNTY...

At 300 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Leisure Village
West-Pine Lake Park, or near Toms River, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Toms River, Beachwood, Lakehurst, Holiday City-Berkeley, Holiday City
South, Pleasant Plains, Cedar Glen West, Leisure Village West-Pine
Lake Park, Leisure Village East, Leisure Village, Pine Ridge At
Crestwood, Dover Beaches North, South Toms River, Island Heights,
Silver Ridge, Leisure Knoll, Gilford Park, Holiday City and Holiday
Heights.

This includes Garden State Parkway between mile markers 76 and 87.

LAT...LON 4001 7435 4007 7429 4000 7408 3984 7419
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 308DEG 16KT 4001 7429

MPS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
302 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021

NJZ013-019-020-041930-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Western Monmouth-
302 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN OCEAN...
NORTHEASTERN BURLINGTON AND SOUTHWESTERN MONMOUTH COUNTIES...

At 302 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Cream Ridge,
or 15 miles southeast of Trenton, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cassville, Cream Ridge, Woodruff, Browns Mills, New Egypt, McGuire
AFB, Country Lake Estates and Fort Dix.

LAT...LON 4009 7464 4016 7455 4009 7433 3994 7452
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 310DEG 10KT 4009 7452

MPS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
304 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021

NJZ026-041930-
Coastal Ocean-
304 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ...

At 304 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Seaside
Heights, or 8 miles southeast of Toms River, moving southeast at 10
mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Seaside Heights, Dover Beaches South and Dover Beaches North.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3987 7406 3994 7413 3998 7408 3993 7401
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 318DEG 10KT 3992 7406

MPS