Special Weather Statement, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
456 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms
can be expected until cold frontal passage late tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the region with no
changes to the discussion issued just a bit ago...

Buoyancy remains quite notable this afternoon, but very little
convection has formed in the region so far owing to subsidence in the
wake of a morning mesoscale convective vortex (MCV). A second such
MCV is approaching swrn OH, which will increase broad lift across the
OH Valley late this afternoon and evening while abundant afternoon
sunshine will help with airmass recovery. In truth, very little
recovery appears to be needed, since a RAOB launched at 20Z indicates
minimal CINH remaining amid moderate CAPE and DCAPE sufficient for
severe downbursts.

Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts are
forming at this time as the wrn OH MCV approaches, with increasing
coverage as a cold front impinges on the area. Given prior rainfall,
flash flooding also may be a concern. Prior discussion follows...

Broken record forecast continues with scattered storms expected to
develop again this afternoon and tonight with the passage of a cold
front. Convection has largely been contained by warmer air aloft but
eventually will begin to fire as convective temperatures are met and
an upstream MCV apparent in latest satellite imagery begins to have
an impact later this afternoon. CAMs continue to have difficulty but
overall the severe threat remains, with MLCAPE near 2000J/KG, 25kts
effective shear, and sufficient dry air aloft. Damaging winds are the
primary threat. Flooding is also a concern, especially for areas
that observed a lot of rain during yesterday's convection. One hour
FFG values are 1-1.5" in areas of SW PA...lower in metro areas. The
trough axis will pass through late tonight and drag the surface cold
front southeastward. Until the trough and surface boundary pass, the
risk for showers and storms continues.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A lingering shower or storm is possible in the southeast Saturday
morning until the front finally exits. Conditions will quickly
improve Saturday, with decreasing cloud cover and much more
comfortable conditions.

Broad high pressure will settle in on Sunday. Expect sunshine through
high clouds with near seasonable temperatures and comfortable
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The western side of the high will move into the area on Monday and
Tuesday allowing warm and moist air to once again flow back into the
region. This will bring active weather to the region for the later
part of the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR should prevail until the approach of a cold front, with
scattered thunderstorms developing from mid to late afternoon
through this evening. Local MVFR/IFR restrictions may be realized in
convective activity in conjunction with strong to severe storms
capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

MVFR/IFR cigs will then settle across the region once the cold front
arrives tonight, provided excess llvl moisture and cooling aloft,
with scattered showers lingering through dawn Saturday. The FROPA
should finally be denoted by a nwly wind shift, with gradual cig
improvement to VFR toward midday.

.Outlook... Gradual improvement to VFR is expected under building
high pressure Saturday, with favorable flight conditions expected to
persist into Sunday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

Update...Kramar

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
513 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ013-014-020>023-029-031-
073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-142115-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Lawrence-Butler-Beaver-
Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-
Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-
Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
513 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 438 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, southwest
Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Additionally, flash flooding will be possible from any storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

PAZ007>009-015-016-142115-
Mercer-Venango-Forest-Clarion-Jefferson PA-
513 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania and
western Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening.
the main threat will be damaging wind gusts. Storms also will be
capable of producing heavy downpours which could cause localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Kramar

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
451 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

OHZ057-132130-
Muskingum OH-
451 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Muskingum
County through 530 PM EDT...

At 451 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Perry State Forest, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegatation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Zanesville, South Zanesville, Philo, Pleasant Grove, Fultonham,
Cannelville, High Hill, Chandlersville, Ruraldale, Bridgeville,
Duncan Falls, and East Fultonham.

This includes Interstate 70 in Ohio between mile markers 157 and 164.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
east central Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 3988 8216 4000 8184 3977 8170 3976 8170
      3977 8207 3982 8208 3982 8217
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 245DEG 6KT 3974 8213

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RACKLEY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
504 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

WVZ012-132145-
Wetzel WV-
504 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Wetzel
County through 545 PM EDT...

At 504 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pine Grove, or 7 miles southeast of New Martinsville, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegatation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
New Martinsville, Pine Grove, Jacksonburg, Porters Falls, Wileyville,
Big Run, and Reader.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
east central Ohio...and northern West Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3949 8072 3949 8073 3951 8074 3954 8078
      3955 8078 3956 8081 3956 8082 3958 8083
      3959 8085 3960 8085 3958 8088 3960 8092
      3972 8071 3956 8052 3948 8072
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 234DEG 11KT 3958 8077

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RACKLEY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
507 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

OHZ068-069-132145-
Monroe OH-Noble OH-
507 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Monroe
and southeastern Noble Counties through 545 PM EDT...

At 507 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Beverly, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegatation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dudley, Summerfield, Dexter City, Stafford, Graysville,
Harriettsville, and Rinard Mills.

This includes Interstate 77 in Ohio between mile markers 18 and 22.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
east central Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 3964 8159 3982 8137 3961 8106 3957 8114
      3958 8126 3961 8127 3961 8128 3959 8129
      3959 8136 3960 8137 3960 8139 3961 8139
      3962 8141 3963 8142 3963 8145 3965 8145
      3965 8147 3958 8147 3959 8159
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 231DEG 24KT 3955 8148

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RACKLEY

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
536 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

OHZ057-058-132215-
Guernsey OH-Muskingum OH-
536 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Guernsey and
southeastern Muskingum Counties through 615 PM EDT...

At 536 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
New Concord, or 11 miles southwest of Cambridge, moving northeast at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegatation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Zanesville, Cambridge, New Concord, Byesville, Philo, Pleasant Grove,
Senecaville, Pleasant City, Lore City, Norwich, High Hill, and
Chandlersville.

This includes the following highways...
  Interstate 70 in Ohio between mile markers 156 and 185.
  Interstate 77 in Ohio between mile markers 38 and 53.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
east central Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 4019 8160 3995 8142 3979 8186 3996 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 240DEG 28KT 3993 8177

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RACKLEY