Special Weather Statement, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1051 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmth, humidity, and periodic showers and thunderstorms
can be expected until cold frontal passage late this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current convection along and north of the I-80 corridor should be out
of the forecast area by noon...followed by a break and clearing
during the first half of the afternoon. Convection will then fire up
again around or a little before peak heating as convective
temperatures around 90F are met. ML CAPE values in the afternoon
look to top the 3500 J/KG range at many spots with dew points in
the lower 70s. With the relatively strong cap finally overcome
normalized CAPE values should be higher than normal. Damaging winds
will be the primary threat as dry air in the mid levels yield high
DCAPE values. Severe storms will be possible across the region with
the highest threat across northern zones where effective shear will
be highest.

The heat advisory remains in place with forecast values right around
100F...despite lowering forecast highs a degree or two after seeing
this morning's sounding and latest guidance. The early afternoon
break should suffice.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
The day on Friday's convection largely depends on the trends
upstream as the pattern favorable for northwest flow and a series of
MCS's moving through the forecast area continues. The upper level
pattern does indicate some support aloft as the trough dips further
south owing to stronger organization and development. Will expect
destabilization Friday afternoon again with the approach of another
MCS with better organization. Timing however, is quite difficult and
confidence is low.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday night will feature the cold front pushing though ahead of a
strong upper level trough digging south through the Great Lakes
Region bringing an end to the unsettle weather by Saturday. High
pressure will settle in behind bringing a cooler airmass and
temperatures returning to seasonal or just below seasonal values.

The western side of the high will move into the area by Monday and
Tuesday allowing from warm and moist return flow to once again flow
back into the region. This will bring active weather to the region
to end the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions should prevail for the majority of the TAF sites
through early morning under warm, moist advection. More convection
is likely in the afternoon, with a line of thunderstorms likely to
develop. These thunderstorms could contain gusty winds.

.Outlook...
Periodic restrictions in showers/tstms are likely thru Sat as a cold
front moves through the area.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ013-014-020>023-
     029-031-073-075.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ039>041-048>050-
     057>059-068-069.
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ001>004-012-021-
     509.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
417 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

PAZ007>009-015-016-074-076-WVZ510>514-130830-
Mercer-Venango-Forest-Clarion-Jefferson PA-
Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Fayette-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
417 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Pennsylvania and
northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon evening.
The main threat will be damaging winds and hail.

Heat index values will climb into the 95 to 99 degree range this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday. The main
threat will be damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ013-014-020>023-029-031-073-
075-WVZ001>004-012-021-509-130830-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Lawrence-Butler-Beaver-
Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Fayette-
Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
417 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, southwest
Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon evening.
The main threat will be damaging winds and hail.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday. The main
threat will be damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1119 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

PAZ007-008-013-014-121600-
Butler PA-Venango PA-Lawrence PA-Mercer PA-
1119 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Mercer, western
Venango, northern Lawrence and northwestern Butler Counties through
NOON EDT...

At 1119 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Greenville, or 7 miles north of Sharpsville, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hermitage, Sharon, Grove City, Franklin, Sharpsville, Greenville,
Sugarcreek, Farrell, Slippery Rock, New Wilmington, Mercer, and
Pulaski.

This includes the following highways...
  Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 104 and 137.
  Interstate 80 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 36.
  Interstate 376 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 4 and 10.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4146 7979 4122 7981 4099 8000 4107 8052
      4149 8052 4148 8013 4149 8012 4149 8000
      4150 8000 4150 7998 4151 7998 4151 7996
      4154 7994 4154 7992 4156 7991 4156 7989
      4157 7989 4158 7986
TIME...MOT...LOC 1519Z 264DEG 44KT 4136 8048

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1149 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

OHZ041-PAZ013-014-020-121615-
Columbiana OH-Butler PA-Lawrence PA-Beaver PA-
1149 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Columbiana, northern Beaver, Lawrence and southwestern Butler
Counties through 1215 PM EDT...

At 1149 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Oakwood, or near New Castle, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
New Castle, Beaver Falls, East Palestine, Ellwood City, Zelienople,
Oakwood, New Castle Northwest, Big Beaver, New Beaver, West Mayfield,
Ellport, and Prospect.

This includes the following highways...
  Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 1 and 21.
  Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 83 and 104.
  Interstate 376 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 10 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4100 7999 4073 8010 4081 8056 4090 8055
      4090 8052 4109 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 1549Z 262DEG 36KT 4096 8044

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH