Alert archive / Illinois / Special Weather Statements in 2021

Special Weather Statement, NWS Paducah, KY

July 10, 2021Jackson County, Williamson County, Illinois

NWS Paducah, KY issued this special weather statement at Jul 10, 2021, 5:29 PM CDT for Jackson County, Williamson County, Illinois. It was in force for 46 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 10, 2021, 5:29 PM CDT (22:29 UTC)
Expired: Jul 10, 2021, 6:15 PM CDT
In force: 46 min
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY

Counties Jackson County, IL, Williamson County, IL

The radar

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 88 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 260 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 952 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 68 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 156 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 10, 3:29 PM CDT, 2 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 10, 3:29 PM CDT, 2 hours before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
329 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

SPC mesoanalysis indicates that over 2000J/kg of mixed-layer CAPE has
developed across the region. However, the shear across the region
remains weak despite the mid-level low to the northwest of the
area and the presence of at least one MCV. The primary surface
boundary has lifted north of the region leaving southwesterly
low-level flow over our entire region.

Look for continued scattered thunderstorms through the late
afternoon and evening, but how organized they will be is in doubt
at this time. The latest HRRR output validates the lack of shear
indicated in the mesoanalysis by not showing the bowing segments
that earlier runs showed. It appears that the damaging wind
threat is decreasing. However, low-level lapse rates are rather
steep and DCAPE is approaching 1000 J/kg. Both parameters are
maximized over west Kentucky. If the storms are able to grow
upscale, we could still see some damaging winds, especially across
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

Most, if not all, of the convection should be southeast of our
region by 06Z, but the HRRR does develop some scattered convection
overnight across the area so will keep chance PoPs just in case
the HRRR has that right.

As the mid/upper-level low descends on the region Sunday, any
semblance of shear will be limited to west Kentucky and the HREF
indicates that it will be weak even there. Also, low clouds will
likely hold down heating and instability well below today's
levels. The cold front is forecast to reach far northwest portions
of the region in the afternoon and then stall out into Monday. The
front could focus convective development in southeast Missouri
and southern Illinois in the afternoon. Really see no reason why
convection would be very organized, but should see decent
coverage. It will try to push east across the region through the
evening.

For Monday while the mid/upper-level trough will not make much
eastward progress, much of its energy will be drawn northeast as a
trough moves east across southern Canada. Any reasonable shear and
instability will likely be focused to our east, so we will focus
our PoPs on Monday in Kentucky and Indiana, however, the NBM-based
PoPs are likely too high given the situation.

As for the Flash Flood Watch, we plan to leave it alone for now.
The heavy rainfall will be done by 06Z, but will allow later
shifts to cancel early, if needed. We briefly considered
expanding it southward with some concern for training along the
southern border of the region this evening. However, the latest
HRRR is not as bullish on training down there. In general,
convective elements should be moving fast enough to prevent
widespread significant flooding, but the brief intense rates may
briefly overwhelm drainages, causing more of a nuisance flooding
situation.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

The upper air pattern starts out on Tuesday with a 500h trough over
Missouri, along our western edge. By Wednesday this trough weakens
considerably and our flow is weak, but almost zonal with weak
ridging along both coasts. On Thursday, the clusters have a weak
trough over the upper midwest, in the area of Minnesota. This trough
sharpens up a bit on Friday generally along a Wisconsin to eastern
Oklahoma line. There is some variability in placement among the
clusters, but nothing too significant. By Saturday there is more
variability in location and time of the trough ranging from a
moderate strength over the Great Lakes down to PAH to more of an
open wave somewhere over the Great Lakes.

The main precipitation pattern during this period has most of the
precipitation from MS into central KY on Tuesday. Wednesday looks to
be the driest day as the next system forms over the northern Plains.
This spreads into the upper midwest on Thursday and settles over the
Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday as the surface cold front becomes
more east-west over either central Illinois/Indian or maybe a bit
farther south closer to the Ohio River.

Seasonal temperatures expected with upper 80s to around 90 for
highs. Dew points are forecast to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s
throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

MVFR ceilings may linger for an hour or two in some locations this
afternoon. Otherwise, look for convection to spread east and south
through the region beginning around 20Z at KMVN. It should clear
all TAF sites by 03Z. The storms should not last more than an hour
at any location, but strong winds over 40kts will be possible.
MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings are expected to develop over the
region overnight and last through the end of the period. Winds
outside of thunderstorms will generally be from the southwest.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ076-086-087.

IN...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ004-005-007-010-
     011-013>016-018>021.

&&

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...PS
AVIATION...DRS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 10, 3:46 PM CDT, 1 hour 43 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
346 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-111000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
346 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Widespread thunderstorms are forecast through this evening. A few
strong to severe storms will be possible, mainly over southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be
the primary severe hazards.

There is a Flash Flood Watch in effect through tonight for most
of the area. Refer to the Watch product for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a daily chance of thunderstorms with the highest chances on
Sunday and Monday, and again Friday. Locally heavy rainfall will
be the main hazard with the storms. No organized severe weather is
expected, but an isolated strong to severe storm is not out of
the question.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois should
be activated for Severe Thunderstorm Watch #365 valid until 10
PM. Spotter activation will also be possible over the rest of the
region through this evening.

DRS/PJS

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 10, 4:20 PM CDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
420 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BROUGHTON               37.93N 88.46W
07/10/2021                   HAMILTON           IL   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: 1-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN.

&&

KES

Local storm report, Jul 10, 4:23 PM CDT, 1 hour 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
423 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW HARMONY             38.13N 87.93W
07/10/2021                   POSEY              IN   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE ON ROADWAY IN NEW HARMONY.

&&

KES

Special weather statement, Jul 10, 4:43 PM CDT, 46 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
443 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

INZ081-082-087-102230-
Warrick IN-Gibson IN-Pike IN-
443 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WARRICK...EASTERN
GIBSON AND PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 442 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Mount Carmel to near Lynnville. Movement
was northeast at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Princeton, Oakland City, Petersburg, Lynnville, Winslow, Patoka.

LAT...LON 3852 8715 3854 8710 3851 8707 3827 8707
      3807 8737 3842 8773 3843 8766 3846 8766
      3845 8760 3850 8759 3849 8754 3852 8754
      3849 8750 3853 8748 3854 8743 3854 8738
      3851 8737 3854 8735 3851 8729 3855 8720
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 222DEG 30KT 3845 8768 3817 8739

York

Special weather statement, Jul 10, 4:52 PM CDT, 37 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
452 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

INZ087-088-KYZ019-102230-
Warrick IN-Spencer IN-Daviess KY-
452 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WARRICK...SPENCER AND
NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 451 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Chandler to near Hawesville. Movement was
north at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Boonville, Chandler, Rockport, Dale, Grandview.

LAT...LON 3804 8679 3800 8677 3801 8680 3799 8686
      3794 8692 3793 8698 3791 8699 3790 8699
      3790 8691 3788 8689 3784 8691 3784 8686
      3777 8682 3805 8744 3823 8717 3823 8708
      3820 8707 3821 8679 3812 8681 3810 8677
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 179DEG 38KT 3809 8737 3785 8684

York

Special weather statement, Jul 10, 5:14 PM CDT, 15 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
514 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

ILZ075-076-102300-
Jefferson IL-Wayne IL-
514 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAYNE AND EASTERN JEFFERSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 513 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Xenia in northwest Wayne County to near
Mount Vernon. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Vernon, Fairfield, Wayne City, Bluford, Cisne.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central and southeastern Illinois.

LAT...LON 3860 8815 3826 8815 3826 8870 3824 8871
      3817 8904 3848 8884 3848 8870 3861 8869
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 275DEG 30KT 3860 8870 3823 8893

York

Special weather statement, Jul 10, 5:29 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
529 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

ILZ081-084-085-102315-
Franklin IL-Jackson IL-Williamson IL-
529 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WILLIAMSON...NORTHEASTERN JACKSON
AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 528 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elkville, or 7 miles north of Murphysboro, moving east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Carbondale, Marion, Herrin, West Frankfort, Murphysboro, Carterville,
Johnston City, and Zeigler.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central and southern Illinois.

LAT...LON 3788 8871 3765 8871 3761 8872 3779 8947
      3795 8942 3795 8918 3796 8916
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 286DEG 37KT 3789 8933

York

The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 9, 7:03 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Lyon, Trigg	42 min
Jul 10, 2:21 AM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	PAH	Ballard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Crittenden and 16 more	25 hr
Jul 10, 3:42 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Livingston	33 min
Jul 10, 3:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Henderson, Union, Webster	52 min
Jul 10, 4:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Jefferson, Perry	39 min
Jul 10, 5:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Franklin, Jefferson, Perry	36 min
Jul 10, 5:14 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Jefferson, Wayne	46 min
Jul 10, 5:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Hamilton, White	50 min
Jul 10, 6:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Franklin, Hamilton, Saline, Williamson	45 min
Jul 10, 6:13 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Alexander, Pulaski	47 min
Jul 10, 6:19 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Edwards, Wabash, White	41 min
Jul 10, 6:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Gallatin, Saline	48 min
Jul 10, 2:36 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Perry	14 min
Jul 10, 6:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Butler, Carter, Wayne	52 min
Jul 10, 3:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Gibson, Posey, Vanderburgh	48 min
Jul 10, 4:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Gibson, Pike	47 min
Jul 10, 4:52 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Spencer, Warrick	38 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Illinois, 2021 Every special weather statement in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.