Alert archive / Kentucky / Special Weather Statements in 2021

Special Weather Statement, NWS Paducah, KY

June 12, 2021Trigg County, Kentucky

NWS Paducah, KY issued this special weather statement at Jun 12, 2021, 9:49 PM CDT for Trigg County, Kentucky. It was in force for 26 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 12, 2021, 9:49 PM CDT (02:49 UTC)
Expired: Jun 12, 2021, 10:15 PM CDT
In force: 26 min
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY

County Trigg County, KY

The radar

The Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 41 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 2.8 hours before the alert went out and 121 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1684 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -5 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1699 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 32 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 59 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jun 12, 6:17 PM CDT, 3 hours 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 12, 6:17 PM CDT, 3 hours 32 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
617 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

Heat indices from 100 to 105 have been the main story thus far
today. It did not take long for readings to approach 100 degrees
in several areas this morning, and readings have been stifling
ever since.

Most thunderstorm activity thus far this afternoon has been lake
breeze generated in the LBL area to the west and east of the
lakes. CAMS and deterministic GFS/ECMWF in poor agreement on where
additional isolated to scattered storms may develop ahead of a
weak surface front approaching the region as we head into late
afternoon/early evening hours. Some consensus for srn IL/sw
IN...then a southward movement thereafter into the evening.

Rain chances then decrease behind the surface front on Sunday as a
ridge of high pressure bulges eastward into the lower OH Valley.
Should not be as hot behind the front Sunday, but readings will
still likely make it up near near 90 in many locations. Humidity
levels may also be down just a bit.

Next cold front is still slated to arrive mainly on the dry side
Monday as nw flow aloft strengthens. Just does not seem to be much
overall moisture...with little to no upper level support or low
level convergence along the front. The front will serve, however,
to bring cooler and less humid air in to begin the long term
forecast on Tue.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

The extended forecast will be dominated by northwest flow in the
upper levels across our area in between ridging across the Rocky
Mountains and downstream troughing over the eastern U.S.

Surface high pressure is depicted to maintain dry conditions Tuesday
through Thursday. Significantly less humid air will also be in place
with dewpoints primarily in the 50s. A weak ripple in the northwest
flow could end up igniting some isolated activity at some point, but
confidence is quite low in that solution at this time.

There is decent model agreement showing a mid level wave riding
along the northern periphery of the western U.S. ridge and diving
southeast into the Midwest/Great Lakes late in the week. Ensemble
probabilities for measurable precipitation are highest Friday night
into Saturday for us. However, glancing at deterministic models and
a few ensemble members suggest showers and storms could return as
early as Friday. For now kept most of Friday dry though.

Temperatures will primarily be in the mid 80s for highs with 60s for
lows. The coolest night looks to be Wednesday night when many areas
could dip into the upper 50s. Friday appears to be the warmest day
of the extended as southwest surface flow returns ahead of the
shortwave trough helping to boost us into the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

Will be monitoring for convection to roll south into the area
this evening. For now will keep the TAFs VFR and dry tonight. As a
cold front enters the area tonight, cannot rule out some fog or
low ceilings. Guidance is non-committal, but did insert a couple
hours of MVFR ceilings at KPAH in the morning. Could see some
SHRA/TSRA in the KOWB late morning before the front pushes
through, but will leave that out of the forecast for now.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...SP
AVIATION...DRS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 12, 2:50 PM CDT, 6 hours 59 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
250 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-132000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
250 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast, mostly from late this
afternoon into early tonight. A few storms could produce locally
strong or damaging wind gusts, small hail and torrential
downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a small chance of a few isolated thunderstorms on
Sunday. However, no severe weather is anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 12, 8:49 PM CDT, 1 hour before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
849 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

KYZ017-130215-
Christian KY-
849 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHRISTIAN COUNTY UNTIL
915 PM CDT...

At 849 PM CDT, trained weather spotters reported a strong
thunderstorm near Crofton, or 10 miles north of Hopkinsville, moving
south at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hopkinsville and Crofton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3709 8754 3707 8737 3682 8734 3685 8764
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 006DEG 13KT 3700 8746

RJP

Local storm report, Jun 12, 8:50 PM CDT, 59 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
850 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 PM     HAIL             2 N CROFTON             37.08N 87.48W
06/12/2021  E0.50 INCH       CHRISTIAN          KY   PUBLIC

&&

Local storm report, Jun 12, 8:52 PM CDT, 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
852 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     TSTM WND GST     CROFTON                 37.05N 87.48W
06/12/2021  M50 MPH          CHRISTIAN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL WAS ALSO REPORTED.

&&

DRS

Local storm report, Jun 12, 8:53 PM CDT, 56 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
853 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 PM     HAIL             2 N CROFTON             37.08N 87.48W
06/12/2021  E0.50 INCH       CHRISTIAN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM 2 N
            CROFTON.

&&

DRS

Local storm report, Jun 12, 9:31 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
931 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CROFTON                 37.05N 87.48W
06/12/2021                   CHRISTIAN          KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            APPROXIMATELY 20 TREES DOWN, SOME UPROOTED,
            IN CROFTON AND THE SURROUNDING CROFTON FIRE
            DISTRICT.

&&

DRS

Special weather statement, Jun 12, 9:49 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
949 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

KYZ012-017-130315-
Christian KY-Trigg KY-
949 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHRISTIAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TRIGG COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

At 949 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles southeast of Cadiz to 9 miles southwest
of Hopkinsville. Movement was south at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Hopkinsville, Oak Grove, Fort Campbell, Lafayette and Herndon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3667 8787 3685 8786 3689 8753
      3664 8742 3663 8785
TIME...MOT...LOC 0249Z 348DEG 10KT 3675 8774 3678 8764

RJP

The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 12, 7:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Daviess	32 min
Jun 12, 8:49 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Christian	26 min
Jun 12, 8:59 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	PAH	Christian	2 hr
Jun 12, 9:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Union	26 min
Jun 12, 9:54 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Union	36 min
Jun 12, 10:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Union	23 min
Jun 12, 10:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Crittenden, Livingston	47 min
Jun 12, 10:53 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Crittenden, Union	3 hr
Jun 12, 11:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Crittenden, Livingston	38 min
Jun 13, 12:02 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Livingston, McCracken, Marshall	43 min
Jun 13, 12:46 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Carlisle, McCracken	44 min
Jun 12, 11:55 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Gibson, Posey, Vanderburgh	35 min
Jun 13, 12:30 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Gibson	30 min
Jun 13, 1:33 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Spencer	42 min
Jun 13, 1:58 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	PAH	Spencer	65 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Kentucky, 2021 Every special weather statement in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.