Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Paducah, KY

884 
WWUS53 KPAH 110132
SVSPAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
832 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

ILC003-MOC031-201-110200-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-210711T0200Z/
Alexander IL-Scott MO-Cape Girardeau MO-
832 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR ALEXANDER...NORTHEASTERN SCOTT AND SOUTHEASTERN CAPE GIRARDEAU
COUNTIES...

At 831 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Scott City,
moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Olive Branch, Horseshoe Lake Conservation Area and Tamms.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3710 8960 3733 8963 3733 8922 3729 8920
      3726 8925 3723 8925 3723 8927 3720 8926
      3719 8925 3718 8927 3716 8927 3715 8926
      3712 8927 3709 8924
TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 265DEG 34KT 3721 8944 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

PS

885 
WWUS53 KPAH 110149
SVSPAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
849 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

MOC031-201-110158-
/O.CAN.KPAH.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-210711T0200Z/
Scott MO-Cape Girardeau MO-
849 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SCOTT AND
SOUTHEASTERN CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southern Illinois...and southeastern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3709 8938 3712 8940 3733 8942 3733 8922
      3729 8920 3726 8925 3723 8926 3723 8927
      3719 8925 3718 8927 3716 8927 3715 8926
      3712 8927 3709 8924
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 265DEG 29KT 3722 8930 

$$

ILC003-110200-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-210711T0200Z/
Alexander IL-
849 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL ALEXANDER COUNTY...

At 848 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Tamms, or 12
miles east of Scott City, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Tamms, Horseshoe Lake Conservation Area and Olive Branch. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3709 8938 3712 8940 3733 8942 3733 8922
      3729 8920 3726 8925 3723 8926 3723 8927
      3719 8925 3718 8927 3716 8927 3715 8926
      3712 8927 3709 8924
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 265DEG 29KT 3722 8930 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

PS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
657 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

Will be clearing out much, if not all, of southern Illinois from the
Severe Thunderstorm Watch shortly. Will need to leave southeast
Missouri going for another hour or two.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

SPC mesoanalysis indicates that over 2000J/kg of mixed-layer CAPE has
developed across the region. However, the shear across the region
remains weak despite the mid-level low to the northwest of the
area and the presence of at least one MCV. The primary surface
boundary has lifted north of the region leaving southwesterly
low-level flow over our entire region.

Look for continued scattered thunderstorms through the late
afternoon and evening, but how organized they will be is in doubt
at this time. The latest HRRR output validates the lack of shear
indicated in the mesoanalysis by not showing the bowing segments
that earlier runs showed. It appears that the damaging wind
threat is decreasing. However, low-level lapse rates are rather
steep and DCAPE is approaching 1000 J/kg. Both parameters are
maximized over west Kentucky. If the storms are able to grow
upscale, we could still see some damaging winds, especially across
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

Most, if not all, of the convection should be southeast of our
region by 06Z, but the HRRR does develop some scattered convection
overnight across the area so will keep chance PoPs just in case
the HRRR has that right.

As the mid/upper-level low descends on the region Sunday, any
semblance of shear will be limited to west Kentucky and the HREF
indicates that it will be weak even there. Also, low clouds will
likely hold down heating and instability well below today's
levels. The cold front is forecast to reach far northwest portions
of the region in the afternoon and then stall out into Monday. The
front could focus convective development in southeast Missouri
and southern Illinois in the afternoon. Really see no reason why
convection would be very organized, but should see decent
coverage. It will try to push east across the region through the
evening.

For Monday while the mid/upper-level trough will not make much
eastward progress, much of its energy will be drawn northeast as a
trough moves east across southern Canada. Any reasonable shear and
instability will likely44 be focused to our east, so we will
focus our PoPs on Monday in Kentucky and Indiana, however, the
NBM-based PoPs are likely too high given the situation.

As for the Flash Flood Watch, we plan to leave it alone for now.
The heavy rainfall will be done by 06Z, but will allow later
shifts to cancel early, if needed. We briefly considered
expanding it southward with some concern for training along the
southern border of the region this evening. However, the latest
HRRR is not as bullish on training down there. In general,
convective elements should be moving fast enough to prevent
widespread significant flooding, but the brief intense rates may
briefly overwhelm drainages, causing more of a nuisance flooding
situation.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

The upper air pattern starts out on Tuesday with a 500h trough over
Missouri, along our western edge. By Wednesday this trough weakens
considerably and our flow is weak, but almost zonal with weak
ridging along both coasts. On Thursday, the clusters have a weak
trough over the upper midwest, in the area of Minnesota. This trough
sharpens up a bit on Friday generally along a Wisconsin to eastern
Oklahoma line. There is some variability in placement among the
clusters, but nothing too significant. By Saturday there is more
variability in location and time of the trough ranging from a
moderate strength over the Great Lakes down to PAH to more of an
open wave somewhere over the Great Lakes.

The main precipitation pattern during this period has most of the
precipitation from MS into central KY on Tuesday. Wednesday looks to
be the driest day as the next system forms over the northern Plains.
This spreads into the upper midwest on Thursday and settles over the
Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday as the surface cold front becomes
more east-west over either central Illinois/Indian or maybe a bit
farther south closer to the Ohio River.

Seasonal temperatures expected with upper 80s to around 90 for
highs. Dew points are forecast to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s
throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

The convection is reasonably on schedule. KMVN is already in the
clear and the other TAF sites should be done by 03Z. Some gusty
winds up to 35kts will be possible along with IFR conditions. IFR
or lower MVFR ceilings are still expected to develop over all
sites overnight and linger through much of Sunday. Scattered
convection will be possible throughout the area Sunday afternoon,
but will leave it out at this time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ076-086-087.

IN...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ004-005-007-010-
     011-013>016-018>021.

&&

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...PS
AVIATION...DRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
346 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-111000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
346 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Widespread thunderstorms are forecast through this evening. A few
strong to severe storms will be possible, mainly over southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be
the primary severe hazards.

There is a Flash Flood Watch in effect through tonight for most
of the area. Refer to the Watch product for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a daily chance of thunderstorms with the highest chances on
Sunday and Monday, and again Friday. Locally heavy rainfall will
be the main hazard with the storms. No organized severe weather is
expected, but an isolated strong to severe storm is not out of
the question.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois should
be activated for Severe Thunderstorm Watch #365 valid until 10
PM. Spotter activation will also be possible over the rest of the
region through this evening.

DRS/PJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
710 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

INZ081-082-086-087-KYZ018-110100-
Warrick IN-Vanderburgh IN-Gibson IN-Pike IN-Henderson KY-
710 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 709 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Patoka to 7 miles northwest of Corydon.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Evansville, Henderson, Princeton, Boonville, Newburgh, Chandler, Fort
Branch, Oakland City.

LAT...LON 3842 8707 3802 8715 3793 8727 3788 8727
      3789 8731 3782 8732 3778 8727 3776 8729
      3773 8739 3774 8776 3776 8777 3777 8782
      3782 8786 3788 8784 3790 8770 3820 8769
      3820 8774 3845 8766 3845 8760 3849 8758
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 288DEG 22KT 3842 8761 3781 8780

York

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
715 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W FAIRFIELD           38.38N 88.39W
07/10/2021                   WAYNE              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TELEPHONE LINES DOWN. WEIGHTED TABLES AT A
            MEXICAN RESTAURANT BLOWN OVER. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

KES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
736 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     FLOOD            3 W NEWBURGH            37.95N 87.46W
07/10/2021                   VANDERBURGH        IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREET FLOODING IN ANGEL MOUNDS AREA. ALSO,
            REPORTED 30-40 MPH WINDS AT TIME OF REPORT.
            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE DAY SO FAR WAS
            2.6 INCHES.

&&

KES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
739 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNW MELODY HILL       38.04N 87.53W
07/10/2021  M44 MPH          VANDERBURGH        IN   ASOS

            AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATION SYSTEM WIND
            REPORT FROM EVANSVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT.

&&

KES

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
743 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

KYZ010-013-015>017-020-021-110130-
Muhlenberg KY-Crittenden KY-Webster KY-Christian KY-Caldwell KY-
McLean KY-Hopkins KY-
743 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUHLENBERG...EAST CENTRAL
CRITTENDEN...NORTHERN CHRISTIAN...CALDWELL...SOUTHERN
MCLEAN...HOPKINS AND WEBSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 742 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Sebree to near Marion. Movement was
southeast at 45 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Madisonville, Central City, Providence, Marion, Dawson Springs,
Sebree, Earlington, Nortonville, Clay, Mortons Gap, and Dixon.

LAT...LON 3719 8691 3704 8721 3705 8726 3701 8727
      3688 8753 3734 8811 3765 8750 3744 8710
      3738 8710 3736 8713 3733 8714 3732 8711
      3737 8708 3736 8703 3732 8699 3727 8698
      3724 8694 3724 8692 3720 8690
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 308DEG 38KT 3756 8750 3733 8796

York

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
751 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

INZ082-087-088-KYZ019-110115-
Warrick IN-Spencer IN-Pike IN-Daviess KY-
751 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WARRICK...SPENCER...
EASTERN PIKE AND DAVIESS COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 750 PM CDT, trained weather spotters reported strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from Petersburg Indiana to the
eastern edge of Henderson County. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Owensboro, Boonville, Rockport, Dale, Winslow, Grandview,
Whitesville.

LAT...LON 3800 8677 3799 8686 3790 8699 3790 8691
      3784 8691 3784 8686 3779 8682 3774 8682
      3771 8686 3767 8682 3765 8686 3765 8687
      3764 8731 3855 8720 3852 8715 3854 8710
      3851 8707 3821 8707 3820 8679
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 257DEG 37KT 3855 8714 3771 8722

York