River Flood Warning 32, NWS Paducah, KY

625 
WGUS83 KPAH 181554
FLSPAH

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1054 AM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

  Skillet Fork River at Wayne City affecting White and Wayne 
  Counties.

.Recent rainfall has caused rises on the Skillet Fork, however the 
crest is now expected to remain below flood stage.

ILC191-193-181700-
/O.CAN.KPAH.FL.W.0032.210318T1800Z-210318T1554Z/
/WYNI2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1054 AM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Skillet Fork River at Wayne City has 
been cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Skillet Fork River at Wayne City.
* At 10:00 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 13.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 14.4 feet 
  this evening.
  &&

LAT...LON 3857 8866 3858 8855 3839 8856 3827 8838
      3826 8846 3836 8865

$$

York

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
634 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Updated for aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

The enhanced risk of severe storms continues unchanged for areas
generally south of a Van Buren Missouri to Hickman Kentucky line.
That said, the prospects for bonafide surface-based instability
are dwindling. The warm front is just south of KMEM and arcs
northwest into northwest Arkansas. The southerly winds and some
tangible SBCAPE will eventually work eastward into southeast
Missouri late this evening, but by then the mid and upper flow
will back to nearly due south which makes it difficult to have
any significant shear to organize convection.

The latest HRRR indicates that we may see a few hours of relative
dry weather through 00Z as the current area of rain continues
northeast out of the area by 00Z. We are still expecting our next
round of showers and some storms to sneak up into southeast
Missouri around 00Z. This area is still expected to be elevated
and instability will continue to be meager. This area of
convection will push northeast through the evening with the same
general weakening trend we have seen with the two rounds so far
today. We will keep an eye on the environment this evening, but
severe weather is not looking very likely at this time.

As for the Flash Flood Watch, we will let it ride. It captured the
heaviest rains from earlier today, and they overlap the 1"
additional QPF through tonight. Any flooding should be very
isolated over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Am
somewhat concerned for the southern Pennyrile, where over an inch
of rain will be possible tonight, but they did not have nearly as
much earlier today.

The upper low will move east over the region Thursday. Cannot
completely rule out a rumble of thunder with it, but will settle
for just mentioning showers.

As the surface low passes by just to our north Thursday
afternoon, strong north winds will bring much cooler air into the
region Thursday night. Any lingering showers are expected to be done
by midnight, so there is no wintry concern at this time. However,
temperatures may reach freezing by daybreak Friday over much of
southern Illinois, so if the showers linger into the overnight
hours we may need to re-evaluate the wintry potential.

Despite plenty of sunshine on Friday, it will be much cooler with
highs only in the lower 50s. Much of the region may drop to
freezing Friday night with clear skies, light northeast winds, and
dewpoints well into the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Surface high pressure will be centered over the northeast U.S. this
weekend as an upper level ridge builds over the middle Mississippi
and lower Ohio valleys.  This will keep the PAH forecast area dry
Saturday through Monday.  Temperatures will be near seasonal
Saturday and Saturday night with easterly winds, then winds will
become southerly by Sunday, resulting in gradually warming
temperatures Sunday and into the early part of the work week.

By Monday night, models show a surface low over the Central Plains.
This low will move slowly northeast due to the surface high pressure
and upper level ridging over the eastern U.S.  Models are generally
on the same page and take the surface low northeast into the upper
Mississippi valley by Wednesday. At this point, model blends bring
showers into far western portions of the PAH forecast area Monday
evening, with chances spreading slowly east across our entire region
by midday Tuesday.  Good chances of showers will continue across our
entire area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as the cold front
moves across the PAH forecast area.  Some of the slower model
solutions take even longer to get the front through our area, and
the blends account for this by lingering slight chances for showers
into Wednesday.

Due to various models timing differences with the movement of the
front, confidence is too low to include any thunder at this point.
As models come to better agreement, we could see some thunderstorm
potential across at least southern portions of our region at some
point.

Temperatures will remain above normal into mid week as winds
continue from the south.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

After the afternoon convection finally moved east of the area,
more showers and storms have already moved into parts of southeast
MO as of this writing. This will be the trend as we head into the
evening hours. The activity impacts southeast MO and far west
KY early in the period, will pivot northeast and impact the rest
of the terminals later this evening and overnight. There may be a
brief lull period as a sfc low moves across the area. However,
scattered showers will gradually return to the area Thursday. Cigs
will be MVFR in the convection and likely stay that way for the
majority of the period, except for possibly in that lull period.
Winds will be southeasterly but go through several changes in
direction as the surface low passes across the area overnight
tonight and into tomorrow.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ILZ075-076-
     080>082-084>086-088>090-092>094.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...None.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KYZ001>006.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
359 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-181000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
359 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A severe storm or two will be possible through this evening over
southeast Missouri generally south of a Van Buren Missouri to
Hickman Kentucky line. Large hail, damaging winds, and a brief
tornado will be possible.

Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will continue to
stream northeast over the region through the night. A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect until 7 AM Thursday for areas west of a
Fairfield Illinois to Mayfield Kentucky line. Please refer to the
Watch product for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested this evening primarily over
southeast Missouri.

DRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
335 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     FLOOD            MURRAY                  36.61N 88.32W
03/17/2021                   CALLOWAY           KY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            FEW STREETS WITH WATER OVER THEM. CREEKS RISING OUT OF
            BANKS. 0.9 INCH RAINFALL SO FAR.

&&

MY